World coffee prices recovered significantly at the end of the week when speculation in the markets showed signs of increased buying following speculation about upcoming monetary policy decisions by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB)... positively affecting most commodity markets in general.
At the end of the weekend trading session (July 21), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange increased sharply. The price of robusta coffee futures for September 2023 delivery increased by 66 USD, trading at 2,602 USD/ton. The price of November delivery increased by 49 USD, trading at 24.41 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange, September 2023 delivery increased by 3.8 cents, trading at 161.85 cents/lb. Meanwhile, December 2023 delivery increased by 3.25 cents, trading at 161.55 cents/lb. Trading volume increased on average.
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| G Domestic coffee prices reversed and increased sharply by 1,200 - 1,300 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities during the weekend session. (Source: Shutterstock) |
New York Arabica coffee prices continued to rise after reports that the continued strength of the Real has hampered export sales and reports that ICE inventories have fallen to zero bags.
Robusta coffee prices rebounded after a previous session of decline as concerns about short-term supply shortages persisted and ICE inventories remained at their lowest levels since 2016 with no significant improvement.
El Nino is forecast to appear in the second quarter of 2023, which will affect coffee production in Vietnam and Indonesia. This will lead to a threat to supply, and with the supply of many of the world's leading coffee producing countries at low levels, coffee prices will continue to improve. Many experts believe that Vietnam's coffee exports this year could exceed the record of 4 billion USD in 2022. It is forecasted that this year's coffee production will decrease by 10-15%/year due to unfavorable weather.
Domestic coffee prices reversed and increased sharply by 1,200 - 1,300 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities during the weekend session.
Unit: VND/kg. (Source: Giacaphe.com) |
In the second quarter, coffee prices continuously set records, at times rising to VND70,000/kg. As of June 30, coffee prices reached VND65,200/kg, up 35% compared to the beginning of the quarter. Compared to the beginning of the year, this price increased sharply by 68%. This increase continued until July, reaching nearly VND67,000/kg.
European Union (EU) coffee imports are forecast to increase by 3 million bags to 47.5 million bags and account for 40% of the world's green coffee imports.
Top suppliers to the EU in 2022 include Brazil (35%), Vietnam (22%), Uganda (7%) and Honduras (6%). Ending stocks are expected to increase by 500,000 bags to 13.1 million.
The US continues to rank second in the world in green coffee imports with 26.5 million bags in the 2023-2024 crop year, an increase of 2.5 million bags compared to the previous crop year.
Top suppliers to this market include Brazil (31%), Colombia (19%), Vietnam (10%) and Guatemala (6%). US coffee inventories in 2023-24 are also forecast to increase by 1.1 million bags to 6.8 million bags.
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