Robusta coffee prices are forecast to end 2025 at $4,200 a tonne, down 28% from the February 12 close, due to improved supplies from top producers Brazil and Vietnam. Arabica coffee prices are also forecast to fall about 30% by the end of the year.
Coffee price today 2/17/2025
World coffee futures prices for May closed the weekend session down sharply on both the London and New York exchanges, but overall the week still saw a strong increase, as the market is still supported by concerns about uncompensated supply.
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on February 14, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London for delivery in March 2025 decreased by 59 USD, trading at 5,735 USD/ton. The delivery in May 2025 decreased by 62 USD, trading at 5,726 USD/ton. The average trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange, delivery term March 2025, turned down sharply by 19.15 cents, trading at 419.75 cents/lb. Meanwhile, delivery term May 2025 decreased by 17.70 cents, trading at 407.40 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.
Thus, the price of Arabica coffee for delivery in May 2025 closed at 407.40 cents, higher than the previous week's closing price of 396.70 cents/lb, up 10.7 cents/lb; the price of Robusta coffee for delivery in May 2025 closed the week at 5,726 USD/ton, up 162 USD/ton compared to the previous week's closing price of 5,564 USD/ton.
Along with the weakening USD after US President Donald Trump delayed the imposition of trade tariffs, last week's decline in coffee inventories on both exchanges also raised concerns about supply, helping coffee continue to have a good week of growth. After a short period of increase in ICE inventories, but then due to a decrease in supply, the amount of robusta coffee in stock has fallen back to a 6-week low of 4,332 lots. The amount of arabica coffee in stock has also fallen back to a 3.5-month low of 849,935 bags last Thursday.
The DXY index also fell to a nine-week low after data showed retail sales fell more than expected in January, prompting traders to increase bets that the US Federal Reserve could cut interest rates twice this year.
Brazil's Cecafe reported last week that the world's No. 1 coffee exporter's January green coffee exports fell 1.6% year-on-year to 3.98 million bags amid a 4.4% year-on-year decline in Brazil's 2025/26 crop forecast by Conab.
In addition to the latest forecasts of a global coffee shortage that pushed prices to record highs this week, the new U.S. administration’s international trade policies have had a major impact on the global coffee industry, with some of the major producing countries in South America, India and Indonesia under scrutiny.
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| Coffee price today 11/15/2024: Coffee price. (Source: Braziliancoffee) |
Domestic coffee prices today, February 17, are trading in the range of 129,500 - 131,000 VND/kg. Domestic coffee prices have increased by an average of 1,000 VND/kg compared to last week; last week they increased by 800 VND/kg.
It is currently the dry season in Vietnam, the fifth month of the 2025/2026 coffee crop year, with major coffee districts in the central highlands of Vietnam experiencing seasonally drier weather, but the Central Highlands region has seen an unexpected bout of unseasonal rains over the past week that many experienced farmers say could damage the region’s first flowering. However, in the 2025 dry season, some areas in the Central Highlands are forecast to experience localized water shortages.
Domestic coffee prices on February 15 dropped sharply by 1,300 - 1,500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
A global coffee shortage has pushed prices to record highs, putting some traders and commodity traders under heavy pressure, Reuters reported, as they face the risk of farmers failing to deliver on contracts and incurring financial losses.
However, after a series of strong increases, experts said that the downward trend prevailed when the two exchanges could not conquer important milestones and speculators took profits at the end of last week.
Technically speaking, industry experts are quite bearish on arabica as it failed to break above the 430 cent mark, profit-taking and closing of long positions at this level caused the price to reverse, possibly marking an all-time high for arabica. From a technical and safety perspective, arabica should not be expected to rise above the 426 cent mark, at least for next week.
For robusta coffee prices, after failing to reach the peak of 5,843 USD/ton, it seems that the London market will also say goodbye to this peak from here, experts have a rather pessimistic view for prices of both markets next week.
A Reuters poll of 12 leading trade and market analysts, which commented on the global coffee supply factor, forecast that the coffee market will soften by the end of the year, with the New York market likely to trade down to around 295 cents/lb, or 32.50% lower than last week's close. In London, Robusta coffee prices are also forecast to trade down to around $4,200/t, equivalent to a decrease of about 27.55% by the end of this year.
Of course, the forecast is more of a guide. But the sharp drop in prices is due to differing forecasts and expectations for next year's Brazilian crop as well as recent record high prices, which are expected to dampen demand.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-1722025-gia-ca-phe-tang-manh-sau-mot-tuan-thi-truong-lan-luot-roi-dinh-cao-tu-day-du-bao-tuan-nay-the-nao-304424.html
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