World coffee prices increased slightly on both London and New York exchanges. Robusta coffee prices increased slightly again after strong fluctuations in the market earlier and liquidation pressure due to being in overbought areas.
Supply remains a "hot" issue affecting coffee prices during this period. While inventories on the London exchange fell to a six-week low, inventories on the New York exchange fell to their lowest level in more than six and a half months.
According to preliminary data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, coffee exports in May reached 149,667 tons (about 2.49 million bags), down 8.52% from the previous month and down 5.35% from the same period last year, nearly 10% lower than the initial estimate of the General Statistics Office. This information has restrained the decline in Robusta coffee prices.
In the short term, Arabica supplies are showing some “slight improvement” as dry conditions in Brazil are allowing the country’s coffee harvest to pick up. However, Brazil shipped 2.1 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in May, down 20.4% from a year earlier, hampered by harvest delays, exporters association Cecafe said on June 13. A delayed Brazilian coffee harvest and low supplies from previous seasons led to lower shipments in May.
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| Domestic coffee prices today, June 15, increased by 100 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Kitco) |
At the end of the trading session on June 14, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London continued to increase slightly. The price of robusta coffee futures for July 2023 delivery increased by 12 USD, trading at 2,725 USD/ton. The price of September delivery increased by 5 USD, trading at 2,694 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange turned up. The July 2023 delivery futures increased by 1.65 cents, trading at 184.40 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the September 2023 delivery futures increased by 1.45 cents, to 180.15 cents/lb. Trading volume was above average.
Domestic coffee prices today, June 15, increased by 100 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.
Unit: VND/kg. (Source: Giacaphe.com) |
In its post-meeting policy statement, the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee said that, in an effort to balance risks to the economy and the ongoing fight against inflation, holding the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged allows the committee to assess additional information and the effectiveness of monetary policy. Further increases in the target range will take into account the lags in the effects of monetary policy on economic activity and inflation as well as economic and financial conditions.
New forecasts show policymakers see rates rising from the current range of 5% to 5.25% to 5.5% to 5.75% by year-end. Half of the 18 Fed officials forecast that level, while three see rates higher.
According to technical analysis on the robusta floor, technical indicators are showing that the bullish momentum is still there. RSI is near the overbought zone at 65.93%, so there is a possibility that there will be a downward correction during the session. It is expected that in the short term, robusta coffee prices will fluctuate and accumulate within the range of 2680 - 2750. The nearest support price zone of the price is 2655 - 2660. If this price zone is lost, robusta coffee can establish a downward trend again.
In the Arabica market, technical indicators are showing that the bullish momentum is still there. In the short term, Arabica coffee prices are expected to fluctuate and accumulate within the range of 182.5 - 190. Arabica coffee prices need to surpass 190 and close at this price to have the momentum to increase to explore the psychological resistance level of 200. However, if the level of 182.5 is lost, a downtrend may be established.
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