Latest Forecast on USD Price in Vietnam

(NLDO) – The fluctuation of the USD/VND exchange rate will have an additional unknown factor: Mr. Donald Trump's tariff policy...

On December 17, the central exchange rate listed by the State Bank was 24,270 VND/USD, down slightly from yesterday. Since the beginning of December, the central exchange rate has increased by about 20 VND/USD.

At commercial banks, the USD price is traded around 25,183 VND (buy) and 25,483 VND (sell), an increase of about 30 VND/USD compared to the beginning of the month.

The exchange rate continues to increase in the context of the USD remaining at a high level in the international market. The USD Index (DXY) is currently trading around 106.5 points, maintaining its high level for more than a month.

Since the beginning of 2024, the USD/VND exchange rate has decreased by more than 4% - quite strongly compared to previous years. At the VPBankS Talk 4 conference with the theme "Steadfastly overcoming storms" on the afternoon of December 16, Mr. Tran Hoang Son, Director of Market Strategy - VPBankS Securities Company, said that this year, VND has decreased by about 4.46%, while the Chinese Yuan has decreased by 1.82% in the context of the USD increasing sharply by 5%.

The USD/VND exchange rate has decreased by more than 4% since the beginning of the year.

It is predicted that in 2025, if Donald Trump applies a tough tariff policy when he returns to the US presidency, China may respond by adjusting the Yuan exchange rate. When the USD increases sharply, China will widen the exchange rate band to cope with the pressure from tariff measures.

Mr. Tran Hoang Son said that during Mr. Trump's first term, when the tax policy was applied in March 2018, the USD increased by 10%, causing the Yuan to depreciate by about 12%. In response to this situation, the USD/VND exchange rate at that time also decreased by 2.9%.

Mr. Son predicts that in 2025, if the tax policy continues to escalate, the strong increase in USD will impact many markets, including Vietnam. The VND/USD exchange rate may fluctuate within a range of about 3%, affecting the macro economy and the stock market.

According to Mr. Pham The Anh, Chief Economist of the Vietnam Center for Economic and Strategic Studies (VESS), the exchange rate in recent times has been mainly affected by the trade deficit and the interest rate difference between Vietnam and the international market. Although Vietnam has maintained a good trade surplus, the interest rate difference in 2024 is creating a big risk for the exchange rate, when capital flows may be withdrawn from the market.

Mr. The Anh commented that the new unknown is the tariff policy that may be applied under Donald Trump. When this policy is announced, the expectation of reducing the US trade deficit will cause the USD to increase in value due to a decrease in supply in the foreign exchange market. The USD/VND exchange rate may therefore be under pressure, depending on the interest rate difference between the US and Vietnam and the level of tariff application on goods from China, Mexico and Canada.

At the 4th session of the Vietnam Economic Forum recently organized by the Lao Dong Newspaper, Dr. Can Van Luc, a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, predicted that the VND will depreciate by 3.5-4% this year and will decrease slightly next year, by about 2.5-3%. The roadmap for interest rate cuts will continue to help reduce pressure on the exchange rate.

Source: https://nld.com.vn/du-bao-moi-nhat-ve-gia-usd-tai-viet-nam-196241217111819773.htm