How Djokovic 'evolved' into the GOAT

The desire to improve himself to the extreme has pushed Novak Djokovic beyond his limits to become the all-time tennis record holder.

"He's crazy," coach Goran Ivanisevic said of Novak Djokovic, shaking his head in an interview midway through the 2023 season - one of Djokovic's peak seasons. According to Ivanisevic, even with the title in hand, Djokovic still lamented his own weaknesses.

Djokovic in a match at the 2023 US Open, where he extended his Grand Slam record to 24. Photo: Reuters

Ivanisevic has seen this attitude from Djokovic more and more often, especially over the past four years. The Serb often arrives at practice in a bad mood, convinced that the match was a disaster, that he needs to improve on everything. Serve, attack, backhand – one of the best backhands in history – are all jumbled in Djokovic’s mind.

Djokovic hardly shows any recognition for himself, despite owning a record of 24 Grand Slams, 40 Masters 1000s, 34 other major and minor titles after more than 1,000 wins. The only thought Nole shows Ivanisevic is how he needs to improve himself so as not to be "cooked" by his opponents.

Great players are always hungry to improve, and Djokovic is no exception. But the extreme desire Djokovic has and the methods to improve are rare. Replicating peak performance, season after season on all three surfaces, is a huge challenge for any legend.

2015 was the season Djokovic played some of the best tennis he has ever seen. It is a year Djokovic often cites when asked about his best. But since then, Djokovic has seemingly played at the same or better level. He has reached all four Grand Slam finals in 2023, winning three of them. Had Carlos Alcaraz not made the final game of the fifth set, Djokovic would have taken Wimbledon by storm to create his greatest season.

As rivals fall behind in the Grand Slam race with closest challenger Rafa Nadal two titles behind, the only person left for Djokovic to compare himself to is himself.

Djokovic is no longer playing like he did in 2015, when he swept the tournament with 11 titles in 15 finals, defeating three other "Big Four" players by a combined score of 15-4, including 4-0 against Nadal. The 36-year-old Djokovic is attacking more and defending less, shortening the time he spends on the court. But one thing that hasn't changed is that the important points still often belong to him.

Djokovic’s formula for the season has been a strong start at the Australian Open, which has been a “good place” for him to go unbeaten for half a decade. He won his 10th title last year – nearly doubling the record of six set by home legend Roy Emerson and Roger Federer years ago.

Djokovic describes Australia as his happy place. Not even a torn muscle could stop Nole from winning the 2021 title. "The more you win in one place, the more confident you are for the next time you appear there," Djokovic said of the Australian Open during the United Cup last week.

As the tennis courts and balls get faster and more powerful each season, Djokovic’s aging body is a major obstacle. He admits that he doesn’t move as well as he used to, making it harder to defend. Djokovic has to take the initiative early, transition quickly and finish as hard as possible.

High-speed tracking devices meticulously analyzed by British company Tennis Viz and Tennis Data Innovations - a joint venture between the ATP Tour and ATP Media - demonstrate that Djokovic has gone from a defensive counter-attacker to someone who looks to attack at every possible opportunity.

The serve is the first thing Djokovic has to improve, as he pursues an energy-saving, attacking style of play. At his peak in 2015, he was a mediocre server, averaging 185 km/h. Since working with coach Ivanisevic, a serving specialist, Djokovic has taken his serve to new heights. From 2019 to 2023, his average serve speed has increased to 193 km/h.

Djokovic’s improvement has not come from better racket technology or lighter balls. The average serve speed on the ATP Tour has barely increased over the years, from 186 to 188 km/h. This means that while his opponents have stagnated or improved very little, Djokovic has leapfrogged himself and the average.

Djokovic’s serve speed has improved, as has his quality. Statistics from Tennis Data Innovations show that Nole’s first serve is 5cm closer to the line in 2023 than it was in 2015, and 8cm closer than the ATP average. That’s important on any court surface, but it’s especially noticeable on the fast-sliding hardcourts of Melbourne Park. A serve on this court will almost immediately send the ball out of reach.

Average distance from ball landing to line, on serves of Djokovic (yellow) and the rest of the ATP Tour (blue) in 2015 and 2023. Photo: TennisViz

Djokovic has also improved his return of serve, despite having long been a return specialist. Statistics show that Djokovic successfully returns second serves to his opponent's backhand 47% of the time in 2023, up from 39% in 2015. This puts him in a better attacking position immediately after the return. His conversion rate after taking the attacking position is the highest on the ATP Tour at 72.1%.

How does Djokovic score so consistently? A forehand that is about 4 km/h faster is one of the key factors. In 2015, Djokovic’s forehand averaged 120 km/h, but now it’s 124 km/h. Djokovic also plays the ball earlier than before, when the attacking position is 60 cm closer to the court. This takes away a few seconds of recovery and preparation for his opponents, making their breathing more suffocating.

Being more aggressive on offense means Djokovic has less to defend, less to chase and less to swing. This certainly suits the near-40-year-old. It's a lot like the way Federer played in his later years, but more solid, consistent and intelligent, because Djokovic has a better defensive foundation than the Swiss.

Djokovic’s opponents now have little choice: Attack before they are attacked. They must make Djokovic run more, play more defense, and wear him down physically, as Djokovic did more than a decade ago to his fiercest contemporaries. Former world number one Andy Roddick once lamented: “First Djokovic takes your legs, then your head.” Learning from Djokovic to beat Djokovic is what today’s players need to stop the most powerful winning machine in history.

Djokovic saves the ball during a match at the ATP Finals, in Turin, Italy in November 2023. Photo: Reuters

"Winning more titles, breaking more records is what drives me every day. There's no secret about that," Djokovic said ahead of the 2024 season. He aims to win more Grand Slams, Davis Cups and unprecedented glory - Olympic gold. Nole enjoys extinguishing the ambitions of young talent. Two Next Gen generations have emerged but have yet to make Djokovic step down.

"If you want me to leave the ATP Tour, the only way is to kick my ass," Djokovic challenged his juniors, while his father called on his son to retire after 2024 because he had won enough glory.

Young players can also look to the future, as Djokovic has withdrawn due to injury or other issues. He recently suffered a minor wrist injury in the build-up to the Australian Open. But last year he won the Grand Slam with a serious hamstring injury that Ivanisevic said any other player would have withdrawn from. In 2021, Djokovic also won with a torn abdominal muscle in the third round.

"I know what I have to do to maintain my body in optimal condition," Djokovic said, adding that he still wants to play tennis despite having to travel away from his family for weeks, even months.

The way Djokovic never gives up, but always finds solutions to adapt, improve his game and constantly develop himself is perhaps a lesson beyond the scope of tennis.

Vy Anh

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