Ukraine's Counter-Offensive: Searching for a Breakthrough

The Kyiv government has launched a counter-offensive to retake Russian-occupied territory, especially in the south. Despite renewed optimism among Ukrainians, the small gains they have made have come at a cost. While Ukrainian forces continue to probe for weak spots in Russian defenses, Moscow is also looking for a way forward and has closed in on the city of Kupiansk, a city Russia captured early in the conflict before losing it a year ago.

While it's nearly impossible to find accurate information about the situation on the battlefield, CNN has some analysis of the key battles in the most recent phase of the conflict.

War to date

While Ukraine has had a difficult time launching its counteroffensive, it is important to remember that the conflict has not progressed in the direction that Russian President Vladimir Putin would have liked.

In 2022, after witnessing the Russian army withdraw from the area around Kyiv and other regions in northern Ukraine, the Ukrainian army won several important victories in the eastern Kharkiv region and the southern Kherson region.

The fighting in 2023 is somewhat different, with soldiers on both sides locked in a slow-moving conflict with no end in sight. The fighting is currently concentrated in eastern and southern Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces have struggled to penetrate defenses that the Russian military has built up over the past several months. Success there has been limited to retaking villages rather than cities.

Southern Front

In the Zaporizhzhia region of southern Ukraine, small Ukrainian advances into the countryside have been held back by Russian defenses. Russian troops have fortified the territory with a series of minefields, anti-tank ditches, traps and trenches.

The region is a key target for Ukraine. A two-pronged offensive would give Ukraine the opportunity to cut off the land bridge between Crimea and the eastern Donetsk region, which has been under Russian control since 2014.

In late August, Ukrainian troops successfully recaptured Robotyne, a step closer to launching a self-propelled artillery attack on the central city of Tokmak. However, there is still much work to be done before that goal is achieved.

Data as of September 6, 2023.

Ukraine has recaptured some territory around the town of Velyka Novosilka. In June, in the second week of the counteroffensive, they liberated several villages: Neskuchne, Blahodatne and Makarivka. They have recently recaptured the villages of Staromaiorske and Urozhaine, but further progress has been difficult. Russian forces have also launched several counteroffensives.

Velyka Novosilka has been under constant shelling for the past year and a half. Having had so much trouble dealing with Russian airstrikes on the town, Kyiv has appealed to Western countries to provide F-16 fighter jets and other air support.

The town of Orikhiv has been caught in the crossfire. Although under Ukrainian control, the town is under constant Russian air strikes and is regularly hit with bombs weighing up to 500kg, sometimes up to 20 times in 20 minutes.

Sixty kilometers southeast of Zaporizhzhia, Orikhiv is caught between Kyiv government troops pushing south and Russian forces trying to defend their positions.

Russian fortifications and trenches in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, March 4, 2023. Photo: Maxar Technologies.

Kupišsk

The Ukrainian army has been trying to hold Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region. The city fell in the early stages of the conflict, and was liberated in September in a lightning offensive by the Ukrainian army. Now the Russian army is trying to retake the city.

In August, the Ukrainian government ordered the evacuation of the city and surrounding area, the largest evacuation in months and a sign of the severity of the fighting in the area. However, many civilians decided to stay.

For Ukrainian soldiers, Kupiansk is a strategically important city in their efforts to stop the advance of Russian troops.

Eastern Front

The city of Bakhmut is now under Russian control after nine months of fighting. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army controls some neighboring areas southwest of the city.

An aerial view of the city of Bakhmut, the fiercest battlefield in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, June 22, 2023. Photo: Libkos/AP.

Large parts of Donetsk and Luhansk have been held by pro-Russian separatists for the past nine years. These are two of four regions in Ukraine that Moscow has declared annexed.

The town of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, still under Ukrainian control, is a frontline town that has seen fierce fighting. Much of the town has been destroyed and its residents have been evacuated.

The coming months

Ukraine is running out of time, autumn will bring worsening weather and increasingly unfavorable fighting conditions.

For a number of political and strategic reasons, the pressure to achieve a breakthrough is mounting on the Ukrainian government. Kyiv needs to have as much leverage as possible in case peace talks are held or if the Western support that has been so solid in recent times suddenly changes.

Although the Russian army has been pushed back somewhat since the start of the military campaign, it still holds some advantages. The Russian army is vastly larger than Ukraine’s, and because Putin has been isolated by the conflict, he does not need to worry about losing allies in a protracted conflict. Russia can even cope with a war of attrition much better than Ukraine.

Whatever the outcome of the counterattack, it will be a turning point in how this conflict ends.

Nguyen Quang Minh (according to CNN)

Source: https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/cuoc-phan-cong-cua-ukraine-di-tim-dot-pha-a625844.html