Ukrainian soldiers open fire (Illustration photo: Anadolu).
Last week, Germany's Bild newspaper quoted informed sources as saying that the US and Germany were trying to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table with Russia by reducing military aid to Kiev, leaving the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with very few options.
The source also said that these countries also have a plan B for the frozen conflict scenario.
According to Dmitry Evstafiev, a Russian political science analyst at the Higher School of Economics (HSE), the West is pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table at this time because these countries are starting to feel out of breath with aid to Ukraine.
“Assistance to Ukraine is becoming increasingly costly for the Western countries themselves, first of all Germany and the United States… Of course, there will still be reassessments through the Pentagon, but one will no longer see large aid packages. The EU will continue to provide assistance, but mainly to help Ukraine maintain the functioning of the public administration system and some kind of social support, but not so much on the military side,” said Mr. Evstafiev.
“Second, it is clear from Western statements that Ukraine is facing a final moment before it can make acceptable demands in a ceasefire agreement with Russia,” the expert added.
Mr. Evstafiev also said that the West would not waste time trying to persuade Ukrainian President Zelensky to negotiate with Russia, but instead would issue an "ultimatum": either negotiate with Russia or let his successor do it.
On the other hand, he said, Mr. Zelensky would not easily change his long-standing stance on peace talks with Russia. Late last year, President Zelensky even issued a decree banning negotiations with the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine in February last year. Western countries responded by imposing comprehensive sanctions on Moscow and increasing military support for Kiev.
At the initial stage of the conflict, Russia and Ukraine held several rounds of negotiations but without any results.
Moscow accused the West of pressuring Kiev to pull out of the talks at the last minute as Russia and Ukraine were close to reaching a peace deal.
In an interview with 1+1 TV channel on November 24, David Arakhamia, a senior Ukrainian MP and former head of the delegation negotiating with Russia, denied this accusation. He explained that Kiev did not sign a peace agreement with Russia because Ukraine did not agree to stay out of NATO and partly because it did not trust Moscow.
The official also revealed that some Western allies advised Ukraine not to compromise because Russia did not provide real security guarantees. After the round of talks between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul (Türkiye), then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Kiev and urged Ukraine to continue fighting.
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