According to the Vietnam Food Association, the export price of 5% broken rice from Vietnam is currently at 578 USD/ton. Meanwhile, the same type of rice from Thailand has dropped sharply in the past week, to a lower level than Vietnam, reaching 575 USD/ton, while Pakistani rice is 587 USD/ton. The world rice market continues to record many fluctuations from both rice exporting and importing countries.
Stable domestic rice production is a condition for Vietnam to increase rice exports.
Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development shows that in the first quarter of 2024, Vietnam's rice exports reached 2.07 million tons of rice, up 12% over the same period in 2023, with a turnover of 1.37 billion USD, up 40%.
Competing with exporting countries
According to the Department of Crop Production, as of March 31, 2024, the 2023-2024 winter-spring crop in the provinces and cities of the Mekong Delta has planted 1.488 million hectares/1.5 million hectares of planned area, harvested 1.304 million hectares with a yield of 72.41 tons/ha, reaching 9.444 million tons of rice. The 2024 summer-autumn crop has planted 440,000 hectares/1.480 million hectares of planned area.
According to the Department of Crop Production, as of March 31, 2024, the 2023-2024 winter-spring crop in the provinces and cities of the Mekong Delta has planted 1.488 million hectares/1.5 million hectares of planned area, harvested 1.304 million hectares with a yield of 72.41 tons/ha, reaching 9.444 million tons of rice. The 2024 summer-autumn crop has planted 440,000 hectares/1.480 million hectares of planned area.
With stable domestic rice production and India yet to ease its rice export ban, Vietnam expects rice exports in 2024 to increase in both output and value.
According to the assessment report on the production of cereals and food grains in the 2023/24 crop year (July 2023 - June 2024) of India, the government estimated the total milled rice production at about 123.82 million tonnes. This figure is about 1% lower than the previous crop year. The total cereal production in the 2023/24 crop year is estimated at about 309.348 million tonnes. Although the government has maintained policies to restrict rice exports for a long time, domestic rice prices have continued to increase, with wholesale prices in March 2024 increasing by nearly 19% compared to the same period in 2023.
According to the Vietnam Food Association, Vietnam's rice exports are currently facing fierce competition with major exporting countries such as Thailand, Pakistan, etc., requiring increased quality and increased trade promotion to expand the market.
According to the Vietnam Food Association, Vietnam's rice exports are currently facing fierce competition with major exporting countries such as Thailand, Pakistan, etc., requiring increased quality and increased trade promotion to expand the market.
Specifically, preliminary information from the Thai Ministry of Commerce said that the country exported 2.5 million tons of rice in the first quarter of 2024, up 25% over the same period in 2023. The Ministry of Commerce expects rice exports for the whole year of 2024 to reach 8 million tons, higher than the initial target of 7.5 million tons due to concerns about reduced output.
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the country exported 609,295 tons of rice of all kinds in February 2024, down about 19.03% compared to January 2024 and up 10.1% compared to the same period in 2023. Cumulative exports in the first two months of 2024 reached 1.362 million tons, up about 51.55% compared to the same period in 2023. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) forecasts that Pakistan's rice exports in 2024 will reach 4.9 million tons, up 8% compared to 2023, thanks to high inventories and world demand due to India maintaining export restriction policies.
Fluctuations in demand from importing countries
Meanwhile, import markets will also see fluctuations in domestic production and import demand in 2024. According to the US Department of Agriculture, the Philippines' rice imports for the whole of 2024 are estimated at 3.6 million tons, equivalent to 2023. The Philippine government is expected to continue supporting rice farmers through preferential credits; while farmers plan to increase the use of fertilizers and hybrid varieties to boost productivity. This may reduce the Philippines' rice import demand in the near future.
For the Indonesian market, according to the March 2024 grain industry report of the US Department of Agriculture, from 2020 to 2022, the country's rice import volume increased steadily every year and remained below 1 million tons/year. However, from 2023 to 2024, this figure is expected to exceed 3 million tons due to the price of domestic rice consumed in Indonesia escalating throughout 2023, forcing the government to increase imports. The country's main suppliers are Thailand and Vietnam. However, competition is also fiercer as Pakistan and Myanmar have also increased their market share rapidly in recent months in this market.
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