3 inflation scenarios in 2024
According to Ms. Nguyen Thu Oanh - Director of the Price Statistics Department (General Statistics Office): The consumer price index (CPI) in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 3.77% over the same period in 2023. Based on the domestic market situation in the first quarter of 2024, assessing the world situation and analyzing factors affecting Vietnam's inflation in the coming time, the General Statistics Office has built 3 inflation scenarios for 2024, corresponding to an average annual CPI of 3.8%; 4.2% and 4.6%, respectively.
 |
| General Statistics Office proposes 3 inflation scenarios for 2024 (Illustration photo) |
The representative of the General Statistics Office said that these inflation scenarios were built through forecasting price fluctuations of groups of goods and services that greatly affect the consumer price index such as food, foodstuffs, electricity, gasoline, medical services, educational services, etc.
According to Ms. Nguyen Thu Oanh, the challenges that may affect Vietnam's inflation in 2024 include both internal factors - internal to the economy and external factors. Regarding external factors, world inflation has been cooling down recently, but there are potential risks, when strategic competition between major countries continues to be fierce, the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine and in the Gaza Strip is prolonged, and instability escalates in the Red Sea, these can create severe supply chain disruptions, increase transportation costs and impact world energy security.
Vietnam is a country with a large economic openness, so when the world economy is at risk of inflation, it will quickly affect domestic inflation. In addition, the current world input material prices are high while the world economic and political situation continues to develop complicatedly.
“Vietnam is a country that imports a lot of raw materials for production, so fluctuations in world commodity prices will affect costs and prices, creating pressure on business production and thereby pushing up domestic consumer goods prices,” Ms. Nguyen Thu Oanh affirmed, adding that the increase in USD prices increases the cost of importing raw materials and fuels, putting pressure on domestic commodity prices.
In addition, according to the representative of the General Statistics Office, internal factors of the economy also affect inflation. Typically, adjusting the prices of state-managed services in the direction of correctly and fully calculating all factors and implementation costs into the prices of medical services and education tuition fees will increase the CPI. Or the Electricity Corporation can continue to increase electricity prices when input materials such as gasoline and coal are at high levels. Wage reform and minimum wage increase will lead to an increase in the prices of goods and services consumed in the family.
In addition, natural disasters and epidemics may affect food prices in some localities, which will also increase the CPI. In particular, the Government's economic recovery support programs and public investment disbursement programs are also expected to put pressure on price levels in the coming time.
 |
| General Statistics Office proposes many solutions to control inflation in 2024 (Illustration photo) |
Solutions to be taken to control inflation
To control inflation in 2024 to achieve the target set by the National Assembly, the General Statistics Office recommends a number of solutions such as: The Government's Price Management Steering Committee shall preside over and direct ministries, departments and branches to develop and report on plans to increase prices of essential goods (electricity, gasoline, oil, medical services, educational services, etc.) with specific levels of increase and timing to consider and decide on the level and timing of price adjustment of goods and services managed by the State in a suitable, proactive, synchronous and unified manner to ensure the goal of controlling inflation. It is necessary to soon have a plan and roadmap for full, synchronous and unified price adjustment among goods to avoid being passive in promulgating and implementing price policies.
The Government, ministries, sectors and localities closely monitor price and inflation developments in the world, promptly warn of risks affecting prices and inflation in Vietnam to take appropriate response measures to ensure supply and stabilize domestic prices. From there, appropriate management solutions and proactively prepare sources of goods at the end of the year to limit price increases. At the same time, it is necessary to have measures to control and stabilize prices, strictly handle violations, and avoid unreasonable price increases and spreading false information that causes market instability.
The General Statistics Office also believes that Vietnam needs to ensure smooth supply, circulation, and distribution of goods and services, especially for petroleum and strategic goods that are likely to be affected by disruptions in the global supply chain and unpredictable and complicated geopolitical conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, the Gaza Strip, and the war in the Red Sea.
The Government continues to operate a proactive, flexible, and prudent monetary policy, closely coordinating with fiscal policy and other macroeconomic policies to control inflation according to the set target.
Strengthen information and communication work, provide timely and transparent information, create public consensus on the Government's price management work, stabilize consumer psychology and stabilize inflation expectations.
Source
Comment (0)