Will this year's billion-dollar agricultural products continue to accelerate?

Rice and vegetable exports maintain good performance

In just two months, farmers in the Mekong Delta will begin harvesting the winter-spring rice crop, the most important crop of the year for the local people. In previous years, during the peak harvest period, rice prices fell sharply due to abundant supply, but this year, at this time, the situation has completely changed.

Many rice farmers said that traders are constantly "hunting" for rice and asking for deposits in advance. Farmers who harvested early winter-spring rice said that the price of fresh rice in the field was at 9,300 VND/kg, an unprecedented high; while specialty varieties such as ST in shrimp rice models were around 10,000 VND/kg. Thus, there is reason to believe that millions of rice farmers in the Mekong Delta are about to enjoy another bumper crop with good prices.

Rice exports are forecast to continue to be favorable, domestic rice prices remain high

Mr. Nguyen Van Don, Director of Viet Hung Company Limited (Tien Giang), commented: "Currently, Vietnamese enterprises do not dare to trade or sign new contracts because prices are high and there are great risks. Even the domestic market is attracting increased prices, especially for specialty rice varieties such as ST25, which has increased by 4,000 - 5,000 VND compared to about 10 days ago, at 25,000 - 26,000 VND/kg. The reason is that this type of rice has just won the "World's Best Rice" award for the second time, so the demand for buying as gifts and for use during Tet has increased. Although these items are waiting for the winter-spring rice harvest in the Mekong Delta, prices are forecast to remain high because other sources of supply are limited. In general, in 2024, exports will continue to be favorable because demand is still lower than supply."

Agreeing with the above view, Mr. Do Ha Nam, Vice President of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), predicted: "Vietnam's average rice export price in 2024 can maintain the mark of 600 USD/ton, the average paddy price will also be at 8,000 VND/kg. Because the demand for rice appears in all markets, in addition to traditional markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Africa... the Chinese market is also very promising. In recent years, China has used its large reserves to control market prices; this also means that they will import again when there is a good price opportunity".

In addition to rice, fruit and vegetable exports are a bright spot with a growth rate of up to 69% in 2023 compared to 2022. Commenting on the opportunities of this industry group, Mr. Nguyen Van Muoi, Deputy Head of the Southern Branch, Vietnam Gardening Association, said: "In 2023, durian is a product that grew beyond all expectations when it started from almost zero and ended with a turnover of over 2.2 billion USD. It is forecasted that in 2024, if there are no unfavorable fluctuations, durian exports could reach 3.5 billion USD. The entire fruit and vegetable industry can continue to lead in growth rate when Vietnam and China recently signed a protocol on watermelon exports.

In addition, many products are in the negotiation stage and the possibility of signing a protocol this year such as: frozen durian, fresh coconut, citrus fruits (grapefruit, orange, tangerine). The demand of the Chinese market is still very large, not only for durian but also for many tropical fruits and vegetables of Vietnam. In addition, Vietnamese durian also has many opportunities for growth in other markets."

Durian exports will continue to set new records in 2024

However, Mr. Muoi warned that recently, due to rapid growth, many quality issues have arisen, and harvesting durians that are not old enough has put businesses at risk, so some have withdrawn from the market. The agricultural sector needs to have measures to control the quality of harvested durians.

"We are growing well in quantity, we need to gradually improve quality to increase value and continue to expand the market," Mr. Muoi suggested.

COFFEE, PEPPER REVIVED

Coffee and pepper once created a fever for expanding acreage, then had a period of sharp price drops that discouraged farmers from investing, but suddenly increased sharply again in the past 2 years. Coffee prices are approaching 70,000 VND/kg, a price that few people could have imagined.

Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), said: "By the end of 2023, Vietnam's coffee exports reached 1.66 million tons, down 4.5% compared to the 2021-2022 crop year. However, the revenue still increased by 3.4% to 4.08 billion USD thanks to high prices. This is the highest turnover in all crop years so far. Vietnam's average coffee export price reached 2,451 USD/ton, up 5.5% compared to the previous crop year. Thus, it can be said that the coffee industry is gradually reviving and returning to its golden age."

According to Mr. Hai, the decline in coffee export output is also due to the increasing domestic consumption demand. In the period 2015 - 2020, domestic coffee consumption increased by an average of 3.94%/year, from 158,000 tons in 2015 to 220,000 tons in 2022. Average consumption per capita increased from 1.7 kg in 2015 to 2.2 kg in 2022. Domestic consumption is forecasted to increase by an average of 6.6%/year in the period 2025 - 2030, reaching 270,000 - 300,000 tons/year by 2025.

VICOFA leaders forecast: "With declining output and increasing export demand, coffee growers may benefit from attractive coffee prices. Export turnover may also reach a new record, forecast to reach 4.5 - 5 billion USD this year."

As for pepper, it has probably been a long time since pepper growers have been so excited about Tet. In the past week, pepper prices have increased to over 80,000 VND/kg; major pepper growing provinces such as Dak Lak, Gia Lai, Dak Nong, Dong Nai recorded increases from 500 VND/kg to 2,000 VND/kg. On pepper forums, pepper growers are extremely excited when prices rebound and predict that they may rise above 100,000 VND/kg like the peak period.

Speaking to Thanh Nien , a representative of the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) said: In 2023, Vietnam exported 264,094 tons of pepper of all kinds, of which black pepper reached 236,148 tons and white pepper reached 27,946 tons. Total export turnover reached 906.5 million USD. Compared to 2022, export volume increased by 13.8%, but export turnover decreased by 8%. The US is currently the largest customer of Vietnamese pepper, accounting for 23.5% of the total export value of this item as of the end of November 2023. Vietnam also holds the position of the largest pepper supplier to the US market.

The second largest customer of Vietnamese pepper is China, accounting for 14.1%; followed by India and Germany, accounting for 5.4% and 4.3%, respectively, of the total export value of this item. Despite the decline in selling prices, the pepper industry is showing positive signs, with the Chinese market "buying" quite a lot, while other markets such as India and the US are also growing again. The goal of the pepper industry is to soon rejoin the "billion-dollar club" in 2024.

It can be seen that billion-dollar agricultural products are quite optimistic in 2024 after a previous breakthrough year in 2023.

According to the Department of Crop Production (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development), the total coffee area in the country is about 710,000 hectares, of which 653,000 hectares are being harvested, with an output of 1.845 million tons and a yield of 2.82 tons/ha. Although coffee prices in 2023 are high, coffee trees still cannot compete with other fruit trees such as durian, avocado, passion fruit, etc. Because coffee prices have been too low in recent years, farmers have not invested much in coffee trees, except for coffee companies and some cooperatives.

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