Meanwhile, the 2024 forecast shows that the rice market will continue to be vibrant as some countries increase imports to ensure food security.
According to estimates from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the past 10 months, Vietnam exported more than 7 million tons of rice, worth nearly 4 billion USD, up 17% in volume and 35% in value over the same period in 2022.
It is forecasted that this year Vietnam will export about 8 million tons of rice with a turnover of about 4.5 billion USD, this is the highest number ever and a successful year for Vietnam's rice export.
Mr. Pham Thai Binh, Trung An High-Tech Agriculture Joint Stock Company, said that Vietnam's rice export in 2023 will be a very spectacular year.
Rice prices have increased dramatically since last August due to a number of factors such as the rice export ban by India and several other countries.
Rice variety structure focuses on fragrant, high-quality rice to serve domestic and export needs.
Many countries are racing to buy large quantities of rice to increase food reserves, causing the supply of this commodity to fluctuate, and rice prices have increased sharply at times. In that context, domestic rice prices as well as export prices of Vietnam have increased sharply, continuously surpassing previous records.
Export rice prices forecast to remain high
Forecasting the rice export situation in 2024, according to analysts, rice prices will remain high and cannot fall below 640 - 650 USD/ton.
The cause of the problem is that the amount of rice in the world is gradually becoming scarce, while Vietnam is holding the opportunity to export rice. According to calculations, the demand of countries in the world is very high, including traditional markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia or China.
Mr. Pham Thai Binh analyzed that in fact, the Indonesian market recently ordered 1.5 million tons of rice for delivery in 2023 but did not have enough rice to deliver. In the coming time, the Mekong Delta will harvest the Winter-Spring rice crop, which is an important rice crop of the year with high productivity and quality.
If according to experts' forecasts, world rice prices will decrease but not much, then the price of winter-spring rice when entering the main crop will decrease but not significantly because rice prices are already high, then the rice export price will still be at the threshold of 670 - 680 USD/ton.
It is forecasted that this year Vietnam will export about 8 million tons of rice with a turnover of about 4.5 billion USD.
“Currently, the amount of rice in the world is gradually becoming scarce, only our Vietnam has that opportunity, so the consumption demand of countries in the world is now very high. If calculated according to the current rice price, according to some experts, the price of rice is around 640 USD, but that is not true, Vietnam now sells for 680 - 690 USD, the price of rice has even reached 700 USD.
As for Vietnamese rice, farmers sell it for up to 8,800 or even 9,000 VND/kg, so the price of rice cannot be below 700 USD," said Mr. Pham Thai Binh.
Plenty of room for Vietnam's rice exports in 2024
In 2024, it is forecasted that there will still be a lot of room for Vietnam's rice exports when supply is in short supply and countries increase imports to ensure food security in the face of unpredictable fluctuations in the world.
Mr. Nguyen Nhu Tiep - Director of the Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) - said: 'With the current world context, the world's demand in 2024 will likely increase and there will still be room for Vietnam to continue to increase exports, and there will still be room for us to increase supply. The possibility of rice in 2024 is based on that picture.
The demand for rice imports from countries around the world is forecast to continue to increase, especially traditional markets increasing imports to address shortages.
According to some experts, Vietnam's rice exports in 2023 will be a very spectacular year.
Forecasting for 2024, Ms. Tran Thanh Binh - Head of Import-Export Department (Import-Export Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade) analyzed that the export ban on the Indian market is expected to remain, and only if production is abundant can the country stop the ban.
Meanwhile, India’s rice output is decreasing compared to 2022, only meeting domestic demand. Accordingly, Vietnamese businesses need to assess information sources from import partners to determine the “golden time” to sign contracts.
“The four traditional import partners of Vietnam as well as Thailand are planning to meet domestic shortages, Indonesia is still increasing rice imports and the Philippines is currently considering removing the ceiling price for domestic rice.
Thus, we also see that current import partners still have import demand. Therefore, with the upcoming Winter-Spring crop of 2024, businesses need to be proactive and closely monitor the plans and demands of major import markets and partners," Ms. Tran Thanh Binh assessed.
Vietnam's rice exports this year are forecast to be the highest ever and will be a year of victory for people and businesses in the rice sector.
However, according to experts, if Vietnam's rice exports reach 8 million tons this year, the inventory will be very thin by 2024. Therefore, businesses need to be careful when signing contracts to avoid risks if they cannot predict the supply.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the 2023-2024 winter-spring rice crop in the Mekong Delta will be planted on nearly 1.5 million hectares with an expected output of more than 10 million tons of rice, focusing on fragrant, high-quality rice varieties to serve domestic demand and export. Meanwhile, many countries are currently increasing imports to make up for the shortage.
Pham Hai, Thanh Tung/VOV-
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