The average export price of coffee in January 2025 increased by 78.5% compared to the same period last year, which was a factor that pushed coffee exports to reach 763 million USD, a historical record.
Coffee exports hit record high in January
According to the report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in January 2025, our country's coffee exports only reached 140,000 tons, a sharp decrease of 41.1% compared to the same period last year, but the value of the export jumped to 763 million USD, an increase of 5%. The reason is that the average export price of coffee in January is estimated at 5,450 USD/ton, an increase of 78.5% compared to the same period in 2024.
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| Coffee exports in January 2025 hit historic record |
Notably, with the figure of 763 million USD earned in January, coffee officially surpassed vegetables and fruits (400 million USD), seafood (750 million USD) to become the item with the second highest export turnover of the agricultural sector, only after wood and wood products (1.4 billion USD).
The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) said that in January 2025, after a slight decrease in the first days of 2025, world coffee prices showed signs of recovery as supply from two major producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam limited sales. The coffee market is worried about supply disruptions as Vietnam prepares to enter the long Lunar New Year holiday.
Meanwhile, Arabica coffee prices were supported as Brazilian research group Cepea said many coffee farmers in Brazil were delaying sales in anticipation of higher prices.
Another positive factor for coffee prices was the move by Conab, the Brazilian government’s agricultural forecasting agency, to cut its estimate of Brazil’s 2024 coffee production to 54.2 million bags, down 1.1% from its September 2024 forecast of 54.8 million bags. In addition, the strengthening of the Brazilian and Vietnamese currencies against the US dollar has supported coffee prices.
Compared to many years ago, this year Vietnam's harvest is much later. The factors include unusual weather causing the rainy season to end late, frequent unseasonal rains, especially storm No. 10 in the East Sea in late December 2024 causing widespread rain in the Central Highlands; at the same time, coffee growers replanted some new varieties that ripen later. In January 2025, Robusta coffee prices in the domestic market increased following the increase in world coffee prices.
Coffee prices are expected to continue to rise at high levels.
In 2024, Robusta coffee exports will decrease by 21.7% in volume, but increase sharply by 30.6% in value compared to 2023, reaching 1.11 million tons, worth approximately 4.19 billion USD. The proportion of Robusta coffee exports will account for 74.47% of the total value of coffee exports of the country in 2024, lower than the proportion of 75.53% in 2023.
In 2024, Vietnam exported 65.3 thousand tons of Arabica coffee, worth approximately 240.0 million USD, up 63.4% in volume and 53.5% in value compared to 2023. The proportion of Arabica coffee exports accounted for 4.27% of the total value of coffee exports of the country in 2024, higher than the proportion of 3.69% in 2023. In addition, processed coffee exports increased by 35.1% compared to 2023, reaching 1.18 billion USD, accounting for 21.07% of the total value of coffee exports of the country in 2024.
In our country, Robusta coffee accounts for 90% of the coffee area. This is a specialty coffee of Vietnam. For many years, Vietnam has become the world's number 1 Robusta supplier. With the current market price movement, some people expect coffee prices to reach 150,000 VND/kg or even higher. Because according to annual practice, coffee prices will decrease during peak harvest (November, December and January of the following year), then will increase in the following months when the world depends on Vietnam's supply.
In 2025, Vietnam's coffee exports are forecast to increase by 1.8 million bags to 24.4 million bags thanks to improved supply. However, according to businesses in the industry, the world and Vietnam coffee markets will be no less vibrant and have unexpected turns compared to 2024.
Ms. Nguyen Thanh Thuy - General Director of Golden Beans Coffee Joint Stock Company (SHIN Coffee) - said that climate change continues to be a hot issue globally, especially for specific crops such as coffee. Many growing areas in the two largest coffee producing countries in the world, Brazil and Vietnam, are being affected, causing difficulties in coffee cultivation, leading to many difficulties in supply.
Therefore, businesses will have difficulty in controlling the quality of input coffee materials. Because, high coffee prices do not mean that the quality will be commensurate. However, the coffee consumption of major markets in the world is still growing, creating a premise as well as open opportunities for coffee export activities in the following years.
According to the latest forecast of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Vietnam's coffee exports are expected to increase by 1.8 million bags in 2025, to 24.4 million bags, thanks to improved supply. Meanwhile, global coffee consumption in 2025 is expected to increase by 5.1 million bags, reaching 168.1 million bags. Most of the increase will come from the European Union (EU), the US and China. |
Source: https://congthuong.vn/xuat-khau-ca-phe-thang-12025-dat-muc-ky-luc-372653.html
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