Turn around and increase strongly again?

Coffee prices on June 14, 2024 in the domestic market are forecast to increase again. Vietnam Customs reported that our country's coffee exports in May decreased by 47.80% compared to the previous month, at 1,322,633 bags. This figure is lower than the previously estimated 1.58 million bags.

This reflects low domestic supply. Sellers are cautious ahead of the upcoming new harvest as they believe yields will be severely reduced.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said that our country's 2024/25 crop output could decrease by up to 20%, down to 1.47 million tons, the lowest level in the past 4 years (in 2023, Vietnam exported 1.61 million tons of coffee).

In recent years, the price of this agricultural product has been quite low, so many farmers tend to switch to other crops with higher economic value. This move has caused the coffee growing area to continuously decrease and may cause a long-term supply shortage.

However, domestic coffee prices today decreased slightly, ranging from 120,000 to 121,200 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 121,100 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 121,200 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 121,000 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the price is 120,900 VND/kg. In Kon Tum province, the price is 121,000 VND/kg; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 121,200 VND/kg.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 120,000 VND/kg.

Coffee prices today (June 13) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 121,000 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 120,900 VND/kg.

In contrast to the downward trend of domestic coffee prices, today's online coffee prices of three exchanges in London, New York and Brazil increased sharply.

London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for July 2024 delivery on the London floor was at 4,260 USD/ton, up 20 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session. The delivery term for September 2024 was 4,110 USD/ton, up 24 USD; the delivery term for November 2024 was 3,943 USD/ton, up 25 USD and the delivery term for January 2025 was 3,757 USD/ton, up 23 USD.

New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:30 on June 13, 2024 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 221.90-224.80 cents/lb.

Specifically, the July 2024 delivery period is 224.80 cents/lb; up 0.45 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The September 2024 delivery period is 221.10 cents/lb, up 0.25 cents/lb; the December 2024 delivery period is 223.70 cents/lb, up 0.10 cents/lb and the March 2025 delivery period is 221.90 cents/lb, down 0.45 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee at 20:30 on June 13, 2024 increased in all terms, ranging from 281.30 - 270.00 USD/ton.

Specifically, the July 2024 delivery period is 281.30 USD, an increase of 5.05 USD. The September 2024 delivery period is 277.10 USD/ton, an increase of 1.35 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session; the December 2024 delivery period is 271.50 USD/ton, an increase of 3.15 USD and the March 2025 delivery period is 270.00 USD/ton, an increase of 4.05 USD.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, it will be open from 19:00 - 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.

Vietnam Customs reported that Vietnam's coffee exports in May fell 47.80% month-on-month to 1,322,633 bags. This figure is lower than the 1.58 million bags initially estimated by Vietnam Customs for exports in the month.

Vietnam’s lower export performance in May reflected tightening domestic market conditions in the country, as sellers were cautious ahead of the upcoming new harvest as they believe this year’s (2024/2025) crop will be severely reduced.

Weather conditions in Vietnam continue to be monitored as rainfall was below average throughout May. Seasonal rainfall is expected to increase soon and continue into October, which will be a welcome sign for producers and coffee market participants.

Forecasts for the current coffee year are average, with Vietnam's Robusta coffee output in 2023/2024 expected to reach around 27.50 million bags.

The market is commenting that the potential for carryover stocks for 2024/25 will be limited, with the development of Vietnam’s coffee crop being closely watched by all market participants, with an average production estimate for 2024/25 of 27.15 million bags. Although growers’ assessments appear to be very different, they are seeing lower yields than the previous crop.

Despite concerns about future production in Vietnam and the lack of a new crop from Brazil, global coffee flows continue to accelerate. According to ICO data, global shipments are up 11% from October 2023 to April 2024, compared to the same period last year. Arabica exports are up 12.8%, while Robusta exports are up 8.7%, reaching 48.34 million bags and 32.65 million bags, respectively.

Shipping volumes from South America, mainly from Brazil and Colombia, increased significantly in the first half of the 23/24 trading season.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-1462024-quay-dau-tang-manh-tro-lai-326031.html