France's Novak Djokovic has won the Paris Masters six times, but Roger Federer and Andy Murray have only won once, and Rafael Nadal has only reached the final once.
Tennis's "Big 3" dominate the Masters 1000 tournaments in much the same way they dominate the Grand Slams. Djokovic, Federer and Nadal have won a combined 103 ATP 1000 titles. Including Murray in the "Big 4," that number is 117.
At many Masters 1000 tournaments, they rarely let anyone else win. The "Big 3" only missed out on the title at Indian Wells once between 2004 and 2017. The "Big 4" won 12 of 15 titles in Miami between 2005 and 2019. Nadal won 10 times in Rome and 11 times in Monte Carlo, while Djokovic won eight times in both. At other events, it's rare for a final to be without a member of the "Big 3".
But there is one exception in the ATP 1000 system, the Paris Masters - the tournament that starts today, October 30. In the past, Djokovic has won the championship here six times. But Federer and Murray have only won once, while Nadal has never won.
Djokovic won his sixth title at the 2021 Paris Masters. Photo: AP
Last year, 19-year-old Holger Rune won his first Masters 1000 title in Paris, joining a list of surprise winners since 2010 that includes Robin Soderling, David Ferrer, Jack Sock and Karen Khachanov. None of them have won another Masters 1000 singles title. Three others, Denis Shapovalov, Filip Krajinovic and Jerzy Janowicz, reached their only Masters 1000 finals in Paris.
Several factors make Paris different, including the fact that it's the last major of the year for everyone. "Players come here tired, which brings a lot of uncertainty," said former player Brad Gilbert, now an ESPN pundit.
But fitness isn’t the only reason for the surprises. Age and family also factor in. Khachanov’s coach, Vedran Martic, pointed to the fact that the Russian was only 22 when he won. He explained that younger, lower-ranked players are more motivated to find success at the final event, after a long, difficult season. They don’t usually go as deep into weekly tournaments as the top players. This gives them fresh legs and more energy at the end of the season.
The older players are also more likely to have wives and children. Their families are eagerly awaiting the start of the two-month break between the two seasons, so a loss is not so bad for them. As for those in the top eight of the Race to Turin, they will probably be thinking about the ATP Finals - the prestigious event that takes place just a week after the Paris Masters.
Craig Boynton, coach of world No. 11 Hubert Hurkacz, said the courts in Paris do not bounce as much, making it difficult for players to set up and win quick points. "It's tiring mentally and physically," said Boynton.
Hurkacz's coach, who lost the ATP 500 final in Basel, stressed that the fatigue in Paris is more mental than physical. "Attitude is the most important thing," Boynton added. "A lot of people come to Paris with a holiday in mind and they tend to accept the tournament ending early."
In the case of Rune, who won the Paris Masters at the age of 19 last year, Gilbert said the two factors that helped the Dane win were his youth and the confidence he gained from the fall tournaments. "If you're on a roll, this is a good place to break out," the ESPN expert said.
Rune (right) won the 2022 Paris Masters after defeating Djokovic in the final. Photo: ATP
Khachanov also won the title in Moscow in 2018 and arrived in Paris in good form. "He also plays well on hard courts indoors and likes the atmosphere in Paris," added Martic, Khachanov's coach.
The schedules of the big players also played a role. Federer withdrew or skipped the Paris Masters four times between 2010 and 2019, in part because his hometown of Basel was the week before. Not only did Federer win Basel seven times and reach the final twice during that period, he also devoted much of his energy to supporting the event.
In fact, many big players consider the ATP Finals more important than the Paris Masters. Federer has withdrawn from the ATP 1000 tournament at the Paris Masters in three of his four appearances, and Nadal has also played in the ATP Finals four times after withdrawing or dropping out of the Paris Masters due to injury.
The biggest motivations in Paris, aside from the young talent, are those who need points to compete for a spot at the ATP Finals. Gilbert says players will be more serious this year at the Paris Masters, thanks to a new prize distribution system. $20 million will be distributed to the 30 players with the most points from the Masters 1000 and ATP Finals. “It’s a lot of money, and I expect those who are close to the prize pool will be in for a real fight in Paris,” Gilbert says.
But things will be tougher for those hoping to break through at the Accor Arena this year, with Djokovic in top form. The greatest player at the Masters 1000 level, who has reached the final of seven of the last eight Paris Masters, has just taken a month and a half off. So, despite the surprise factor and the young players’ favor, the 36-year-old’s chances of making it to the final in Paris are still very high.
Nhan Dat
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