The relationship between the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will enter a new phase, regardless of who becomes President in the next race.
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| The US-NATO relationship will enter a new phase, regardless of who occupies the White House in the upcoming election. (Source: Shutterstock) |
That is the assessment in the latest report of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) - an independent policy research institute based in Washington on the future of US-NATO relations after the race for the seat of power on November 5.
The decisive turn
According to CSIS, if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House, it is highly likely that the US will gradually reduce its presence in NATO, causing a deep crisis within the alliance.
On the contrary, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins and becomes the owner of the White House, the situation of US-NATO relations may change in a more "subtle" way, because Ms. Harris is said to be more likely to continue to maintain the policies of her predecessor Joe Biden.
However, under Ms. Harris’s policy, just like President Obama’s, the White House occupants representing the post-Cold War generation of leaders, Washington will also be less attached to NATO and Europe. America’s priorities and interests will gradually shift away from this region.
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| Former US President Donald Trump at the NATO summit in Watford (UK) in 2019. (Source: AP) |
The CSIS report asserts that Russia's special military operation in Ukraine in 2022 has exposed Europe's deep military dependence on its superpower ally, the United States. In fact, European security depends on Washington through the NATO military alliance, which supports US-led operations.
Although NATO member states in Europe contribute significant forces and resources, the United States remains the “locomotive” providing many important strategic capabilities to the continent, such as air refueling, tactical intelligence, battlefield command and control, and especially ammunition reserves – resources that Europe lacks.
In addition, NATO’s European allies have increased their defense spending by a third, totaling about $380 billion a year. But despite the increased defense spending, the alliance has not been able to reduce its dependence on the United States. Therefore, Washington remains indispensable to European and NATO security.
A sudden US withdrawal from NATO would leave a gaping hole in the European security architecture that would be difficult to fill. European countries would need years to acquire equipment and build up key military capabilities, as well as change the way they cooperate.
If Trump wins?
CSIS believes that under a second Donald Trump administration, NATO will face many "difficulties".
Mr Trump has long been critical of NATO and now appears to have concrete plans to reduce US involvement in the alliance. However, if Mr Trump is re-elected, the US will not be able to completely withdraw from NATO, as this would require Senate approval.
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| US and NATO navies participate in joint exercises in the North Atlantic. (Source: ABC News) |
Pro-Trump organizations are offering specific policy proposals such as “Quiet NATO” and the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, which aims to “reshape NATO” by shifting the military burden to Europe. According to a video posted on the former President Trump’s campaign website in March 2023, he is willing to “complete a reassessment of NATO’s purpose and mission” during his first term.
While Europe may hope that increased defense spending will soften Trump’s opposition, it is unlikely to have much effect. The former president and his allies will eventually grow frustrated with Europe’s military dependence on Washington. So the increased spending is intended to reduce America’s role in European security, not strengthen NATO.
Mr Trump’s allies are no longer looking at defense spending as a NATO issue, but are looking at ways to get European countries to “shoulder more” military responsibility. Proposals include: continuing the US nuclear umbrella for NATO, maintaining bases in Germany, the UK and Türkiye, and forcing Europe to take charge of conventional military forces.
Another plan proposes dividing allies into two groups: those that meet the threshold of spending at least 2 percent of their GDP on defense and those that do not. However, this plan challenges Article 5 of the NATO Charter on collective defense and mutual protection.
Inheritance and adjustment
According to CSIS, if Ms. Harris wins, it will mark a generational shift in Washington's leadership. President Biden's views are deeply influenced by the Cold War, closely tied to NATO and transatlantic relations. Therefore, Ms. Harris's administration will likely continue Mr. Biden's support for NATO and Ukraine. However, with European security facing the greatest threat since the Cold War, European allies will find it difficult to avoid feeling insecure when transitioning from Mr. Biden to Ms. Harris. These countries will continuously seek assurances that Ms. Harris is unlikely to fully provide.
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| If she wins, Kamala Harris is likely to continue President Joe Biden's support for NATO. (Source: Anadolu Agency) |
Research from CSIS suggests that Ms Harris may also struggle to maintain the same level of engagement and deep commitment to Europe as Mr Biden, who has built ties with the continent over decades.
While Ms. Harris does not have deep ties to Europe, her current national security team, including National Security Adviser Phil Gordon and US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith, are experts on Europe. If they continue to serve in her administration once she is elected, it would help bolster European confidence.
If Harris were in the White House, the US could still shift its focus to other issues, especially in the early stages of a term that is often focused on domestic issues. Like Obama’s tenure, Harris would likely remain steadfast in NATO, but to varying degrees. However, Enrico Letta, former Italian Prime Minister, said that “for many Europeans, President Obama doesn’t have enough love for them.”
Besides, CSIS also emphasized that the US needs to be more cautious with NATO, because this is the strongest and longest-lasting military alliance in history.
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| The US needs to tread more carefully with NATO. (Source: Reuters) |
Change to adapt
A sudden withdrawal of US forces from NATO would seriously compromise European security, especially in the context of many security threats on its periphery. It will take years, even decades, for the continent to build a “European pillar” within NATO to reduce its traditional military dependence on the US. This effort should have begun immediately after the Cold War, when the European Union (EU) was founded. But due to internal European differences and US opposition, this intention has not made any progress.
It is time for the US to provide more support for the formation of a “European pillar”. For the Trump administration, this effort will take time. For the Harris administration, US opposition to the European pillar, as well as EU defense efforts, will require Washington to engage more deeply and long-term in the continent, something the US will find difficult to sustain as it shifts to the Indo-Pacific region.
Finally, according to CSIS experts, building a “European pillar” within NATO will require significant defense integration from countries on the continent, in which the EU needs to assert its role more. In addition, the EU should also do more on defense, from creating a common fund to unifying Europe’s fragmented defense industry.
In short, the upcoming US presidential election will not only shape the future of the United States but also profoundly affect the world order and strategic alliances. Whoever wins, the new administration will face a series of challenges, both domestic and international, from the economy, security to global issues such as climate change and technology.
In this context, Washington's decisions will have a strong impact on allies and rivals around the world, requiring a strategic vision and a strong commitment.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/bau-cu-my-2024-moi-tinh-my-nato-se-ra-sao-hau-bau-cu-291419.html
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