(CLO) The Chairman of HoREA assessed that the continuous increase in housing prices in recent years is due to the limited supply of commercial housing projects, leading to a continued scarcity of commercial housing products. With this situation, housing prices in Ho Chi Minh City in 2025 may increase by 15% - 20%.
Mr. Le Hoang Chau, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA), said that the first quarter of 2023 was the "bottom" of the Vietnamese real estate market. However, since then, the market has gradually recovered, but at a slow pace following the trend of decreasing difficulties over time, with each month being better than the previous month, and each quarter being better than the previous quarter.
In Ho Chi Minh City alone, Mr. Chau predicts that in 2024, the market could grow positively by around 9%. Real estate business revenue in 11 months is estimated to reach VND250,000 billion.
However, the real estate market in Ho Chi Minh City in 2024 still has some limitations and shortcomings.
Housing prices in Ho Chi Minh City in 2025 may increase by 15% - 20%. (Photo: ST)
Firstly, supply is continuously decreasing, projects opening for sale in 2024 mostly supply in the high-end segment.
Citing data from the Ho Chi Minh City Department of Construction, Mr. Chau said that in the first 11 months of 2024, there were only 31 commercial housing projects under implementation with 31,167 apartments. This number is only about 1/3 of the number of projects implemented annually before.
Also in the 11 months of 2024, only 4 commercial housing projects were eligible to raise capital to bring products to the market, a 75% reduction in the number of projects with a total of only 1,611 houses, all (100%) of which were luxury housing.
Mr. Chau commented: This is the first time that the high-end housing segment has dominated the entire real estate market in Ho Chi Minh City. At present, the market no longer has a supply of mid-range and affordable housing in commercial housing projects.
This further distorts the housing product structure in the city's real estate market, failing to meet the real housing needs of the majority of middle-income and low-income urban people, and the market develops unsustainably, unsafely and unhealthy.
As a result, the housing product structure in the housing pyramid model of Ho Chi Minh City in the first 11 months of 2024 continues to be seriously imbalanced.
“The sharp decline in the number of affordable housing units in the real estate market is also happening in large cities across the country, while the housing demand of middle- and low-income earners is very high,” said Mr. Chau.
Second, housing prices in Ho Chi Minh City continue to increase sharply. Mr. Chau said that the average price of 1,611 houses in 4 high-end housing projects launched on the market in the first 11 months of 2024 has reached 9.39 billion VND/house.
“This is only the primary house price registered by the investor with the Department of Construction when establishing the investment project, so the actual selling price on the market will certainly be higher,” said Mr. Chau.
Mr. Chau assessed that the continuous increase in housing prices in recent years is due to the limited supply of commercial housing projects, leading to a continued shortage of commercial housing products. With this situation, Mr. Chau predicted that housing prices in Ho Chi Minh City in 2025 could increase by 15% - 20%.
Third, the number of newly established real estate enterprises decreased slightly. According to the Department of Planning and Investment, in the first 10 months of 2024, the city had nearly 1,200 real estate enterprises registered for business, down 1.2%, with a total registered capital of nearly 43,000 billion VND, down 17% in capital compared to the same period last year.
At the same time, the General Statistics Office said that in the first 11 months of 2024, the whole country had 4,240 real estate enterprises registered for business, down 2.6% over the same period last year.
Fourth, social housing has almost disappeared. In the first 11 months of 2024, only one social housing project in the city was approved for investment.
In addition, Ho Chi Minh City has another social housing project in Binh Chanh district that broke ground at the end of August 2024. However, after more than 3 months, this project has not yet been approved by the People's Committee of Binh Chanh district for a detailed 1/500 scale plan, so it has not been granted a construction permit and has not been implemented.
Summarizing the results of social housing development in the city from 2021 to present, the Ho Chi Minh City Department of Construction said that there are only 10 social housing projects, of which 6 projects have been completed, 4 projects are under construction with a total of nearly 6,000 houses.
This figure only reached 8.6% of the plan to develop 69,700 social housing apartments (low level) in the period of 2021-2030. Mr. Chau said that this is a modest result and poses many challenges for the city to achieve the target of developing social housing in the coming time.
Source: https://www.congluan.vn/gia-nha-o-tai-tp-hcm-trong-nam-2025-co-the-tang-them-15--20-post326305.html
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