The coffee industry in the world’s largest economy is expected to grow slightly next year. Coffee consumption in the United States remains the world’s largest, at an estimated 24 million bags per year, according to the National Coffee Association (NCA).
Coffee price today 2/4/2025
World coffee prices reflected a mixed picture in the first trading session of this week, with robusta plummeting, while arabica has still risen sharply by nearly 18% since the beginning of the year. Also in this short period, robusta coffee prices have increased by more than 16%, but there are some downward adjustments.
Domestic coffee prices continued to skyrocket after the long Lunar New Year holiday, officially surpassing the threshold of VND130,500/kg, currently trading in the range of VND129,700 - VND130,700/kg. Thus, domestic coffee prices have now increased by about 8.5% compared to the end of 2024, an increase of VND10,000 - VND10,200/kg.
The decline in London was expected. Analysts said the reason was that when the Vietnamese market reopened after the long Tet holiday, there was more supply to the market. In addition, Robusta coffee has been in the overbought zone since last week, and now is the time for strong speculation to push prices down.
Meanwhile, arabica prices have been steadily rising since the start of the year, supported by President Trump’s tariffs on South American countries and a volatile US dollar. Traders say 70-80% of Brazil’s current arabica stocks have been sold and new deals are relatively slow.
Estimates released so far from traders and analysts suggest coffee production could fall slightly from last year, but forecasts are still subject to revision. However, actual figures from various forecasters are still causing concern in the market, pushing the trend strongly upward.
This year’s coffee crop in Brazil, the world’s largest exporter, will not be as bad as initially expected , Reuters reported. Abundant rains after last year’s worst drought in history have significantly improved the condition of the crop. The higher-than-expected output in Brazil will help improve supply in the market amid severe shortages that have sent coffee prices to record highs in recent times.
Still, some experts say Brazil’s 2025 crop is likely to be smaller than 2024 and well off the record of nearly 70 million bags in 2020. But the situation is not as dire as some analysts feared, as severe drought hit coffee trees late last year, affecting their ability to produce fruit. “The rains came late, but they haven’t stopped since they started,” said the director of a major Brazilian exporter. “It will be a good crop.”
The coffee market has also been affected by bullish speculation, stemming from the prospects of the new crop in Brazil. Currently, forecasts indicate that the total coffee production in the upcoming season will be lower than initially forecast. As the new crop is still in its development stage, there has been a shortage of supply and price pressure in the domestic market of Brazil. However, some views still believe that coffee supply will remain stable to meet both domestic and export demand from the upcoming harvest, expected in the second half of 2025.
Commenting on the market this week, experts said that both exchanges are in the overbought zone. However, the bullish sentiment is still strong as Mr. Trump imposes tariffs on many countries. Experts predict that both exchanges will adjust down when supply from Vietnam returns and speculation on the selling floor is strong.
Currently, some major coffee growing regions in Vietnam are continuing to harvest late-ripening coffee, while most have finished this year's harvest. This year, coffee growers in the Central Highlands are enjoying the joy of record-high coffee prices, helping people have a warm and prosperous Tet.
 |
| Coffee price today 14/1/2025: Coffee price |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the first trading session of the week (February 3), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in March 2025 fell sharply by 184 USD, trading at 5,534 USD/ton. The delivery in May 2025 fell by 174 USD, trading at 5,520 USD/ton. Average trading volume.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange continued to increase sharply, with the March 2025 delivery term up 3.05 cents, trading at 380.90 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2025 delivery term increased 3 cents, trading at 374.35 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.
Domestic coffee prices on February 3 increased sharply by 1,700 - 1,900 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
The NCA report estimates that sales will reach $19.7 billion by 2024, a figure that is expected to increase slightly this year. According to the latest NCA data, 67% of American adults consume coffee daily (more than any other beverage, including bottled water). That’s up 37% since 2004—the highest level in more than 20 years. The percentage of Americans who drink coffee weekly is even higher, at 75%.
Explaining the reason for this growth, NCA President William Murray said that coffee accounts for about 1.3% of the US economy each year, is a cornerstone of Americans' daily lives and also brings significant health benefits. Commenting on the coffee industry, he said that the industry "has always been able to keep up with the diverse and ever-changing tastes of Americans".
William Murray also affirmed: “The growth of the specialty coffee industry is the main driver of daily coffee consumption among Americans. In fact, the percentage of American adults who drink specialty coffee weekly is 57%, up 7.5% compared to the same period last year.
As specialty coffee becomes more influential in the U.S. coffee market, consumer demand is also shaping the industry, making specialty coffee more accessible to more people. Jake Leonti, director of coffee at U.S. roaster Gregory's Coffee, said that American consumers are increasingly accessing specialty coffee through single-serve items like instant coffee and canned coffee, according to Perfect Daily Grind.
Experts say that Vietnamese coffee, especially specialty robusta, has great potential for export to the US as demand in this country is still on a steady upward trend.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-422025-gia-ca-phe-robusta-ngung-tang-trong-nuoc-lap-dinh-moi-thi-truong-my-quan-trong-the-nao-302983.html
Comment (0)