The coffee market is in a period of strong fluctuations, with mixed signals coming from both world and domestic coffee prices. While the price of Brazilian Arabica coffee increased slightly on the morning of October 12, domestic coffee prices decreased in key localities.
Considering the current supporting and risk factors, this article will take a deeper look at the growth potential and potential challenges for the coffee market in the short term.
World Coffee Market: Positive Signals from Brazilian Arabica
Brazilian Arabica coffee, the world's most popular coffee, posted a slight increase on the morning of October 12. The December 2024 delivery futures rose 0.41% to $304.50 per tonne, while the March 2025 delivery futures rose 0.20% to $303.80 per tonne. However, the May 2025 and July 2025 futures fell slightly, by 1.15% and 1.26%, respectively.
The rise in Brazilian Arabica prices reflects concerns about global coffee supplies. Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, is facing a prolonged drought that is affecting coffee crop yields.
Domestic coffee market: Signs of slight decline
While the world coffee market is showing positive signs, domestic coffee prices are showing a slight downward trend. Specifically, coffee prices updated at 4:30 a.m. on October 13, 2024 show that the domestic coffee market today decreased in key localities, with an average decrease of VND 400/kg, ranging from VND 113,000 - 113,700/kg.
The decline in domestic coffee prices can be attributed to a number of factors, including: After months of strong growth, many coffee growers are cautious about selling their coffee. Supply is abundant and Vietnam’s new coffee harvest has begun, and supply is expected to be more abundant in the coming period. Heavy rains during the harvest period can affect the quality of coffee and lead to a price drop.
Based on current market developments, coffee prices tomorrow, October 14, 2024, are expected to have a slight upward trend.
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| Coffee price forecast for tomorrow, October 14, 2024: Balancing growth and risk |
Factors supporting prices: Prolonged drought in Brazil and lower-than-expected coffee production in Vietnam remain key factors driving up coffee prices. And a weaker US dollar against other currencies makes coffee cheaper for importing countries, boosting demand. Global coffee demand is growing strongly, especially in emerging markets.
Risk factors: Heavy rains during harvest season in Vietnam could affect coffee quality and lead to reduced production. Shipping bottlenecks through the Red Sea could impact coffee exports, leading to lower prices.
Coffee prices tomorrow, October 14, 2024, are expected to be a balanced result between supporting and risky factors. A slight upward trend may be noted, but the market still has many potential fluctuations. Investors need to closely monitor market developments to make appropriate investment decisions.
*Information for reference only
Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-mai-14102024-tiep-tuc-giam-manh-352160.html
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