“Taking the pulse” of Hanoi real estate market

Commenting on the capital’s real estate market at the end of the year, observers say that apartments are still the segment leading the cash flow. In addition, investment-oriented types such as land will soon revive.

The segment with real demand is still hot

According to Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com, in recent times, apartments have been the leading type of “wave” during the market recovery period. However, when the market enters a stable phase, apartments will have to cede their “star” position to other segments.

“In previous cycles, when the market moved to a stable development phase, with 100 VND invested, apartments would only earn 136 VND, but with land, it would earn up to 300 VND,” Mr. Quoc Anh shared.

The above visualization shows that, at different stages of the market, apartments, although having good profit margins, are not the most attractive type of investment. If the current market operates according to the rules in previous cycles of fluctuations, then after overheating, apartments will move sideways and grow more slowly compared to other segments.

REAL ESTATE IN NEIGHBORING PROVINCES OF HANOI IS GETTING HOTTER

Not only the suburban districts of Hanoi, the real estate market in the provinces surrounding the capital is also being eyed by many investors. Mr. Le Dinh Chung, General Director of SGO Homes pointed out the reason, with the price of real estate in the inner city being too high, many investors are redirecting their money to neighboring provinces and cities.

“The market in the provinces surrounding Hanoi is showing positive signs of recovery, with many areas increasing beyond the old price level. Currently, investors are targeting real estate around two economic axes, including the Bac Ninh - Bac Giang - Vinh Phuc axis and the Hung Yen - Hai Duong - Hai Phong - Quang Ninh axis. These are all areas with a lot of room for development, good traffic infrastructure and close to industrial parks,” Mr. Chung informed.

Mr. Quoc Anh predicts that in the next year, apartments will still be a bright spot in the market, while other segments such as private houses and townhouses will be hotter from the beginning of next year. Investment-oriented types will see a steady increase in transaction volume from mid-2025.

Mr. Nguyen Thac Cuong, Deputy General Director of Mai Viet Land, also said that real estate that meets real estate needs is currently selling at very high prices, with no signs of cooling down in the near future. From now until the first half of next year, segments that exploit cash flow such as apartments and inner-city villas will continue to lead the market recovery.

Similarly, Mr. Le Dinh Chung, General Director of SGO Homes, commented that from now until 2025, the price of private houses and apartments will continue to increase, but at a moderate rate, instead of increasing dramatically like in early 2024.

From another perspective, Mr. Phan Le Thanh Long, CEO of AFA Group, co-founder of the Vietnam Financial Advisors Community (VWA) analyzed that the apartment price level in Hanoi will be reset to become more balanced with people's income. However, this will only really happen if, in the next 5 years, the number of social housing projects in the capital is enough to meet people's needs.

Warning when investing in suburban real estate

Based on the developments in previous cycles, it is not yet the time for land plots. However, the reality is reflecting the opposite, when the residential land segment has been continuously sought after since the first half of this year. Many places have had "unimaginable" price increases.

Explaining this phenomenon, Mr. Le Dinh Chung said that these are just local fevers, investors who cannot buy apartments due to lack of new projects, turn to land. In addition, it also comes from the fact that many local authorities set the starting price when auctioning land not high.

“Recent land auctions in the suburbs have attracted a lot of attention from investors because the starting price and required deposit are relatively low (the starting price of many lots is less than 10 million VND/m2). This is also a loophole for speculative investors. This has created bad consequences, pushing the land price level in the market to an excessive level,” Mr. Chung shared about recent developments in the land market.

According to Mr. TN, a person who participated in land auctions in Thanh Oai and Hoai Duc districts, in the coming time, "land hunting" groups will not dare to bid as high as before. Because, if they set a really high price to win the auction, these plots of land will be very difficult to liquidate.

“The case of forfeiting the deposit for 55/68 plots of land in Thanh Cao commune (Thanh Oai district) is a failed investment of these groups, when they misjudged the market. The land price was too high, making it difficult for brokers to sell at a higher price, and in the end, they had to forfeit the deposit. It can be said that they lost capital in the deal in Thanh Oai,” ​​Mr. TN affirmed.

According to Mr. TN, real estate in the suburbs of Hanoi is many times more valuable than its real value. There are houses in alleys in Tien Yen commune (Hoai Duc district), where the auction took place, with land plots priced at 133 million VND/m2, the price was "inflated" to 60 - 70 million VND/m2, as expensive as apartments in the inner city.

“Real estate in the suburbs is not a place for novice investors. In case the market goes down, houses/land in the inner city only need to cut a loss of about 30% to find buyers, but in the suburbs, even if investors reduce the price by 50%, it will still be difficult to sell,” Mr. TN warned.

Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh also has a similar opinion. According to him, investment segments such as land, although the price can increase 2-3 times after a few years, liquidity is relatively limited and the price can go sideways for a long time when the market slows down.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/batdongsan/bat-mach-thi-truong-bat-dong-san-ha-noi-d225545.html