Along with messages of readiness to negotiate, both Russia and Ukraine, backed by the West, seem to be about to launch "all-in" attacks to gain the upper hand in negotiations.
Yesterday, November 26, Reuters reported that Russian forces are advancing into Ukraine at the fastest pace since Moscow began its military campaign in February 2022. Specifically, Russia has occupied an area of more than 600 km² in just 1 month. Notably, in just the last week, Russia has occupied an area of more than 235 km² - this is the fastest rate of expansion of the occupied area in a week that Moscow has achieved since February 2022.
Ukrainian forces during a military exercise on November 22.
Gain the upper hand before the end
Not only that, the Ukrainian military announced on November 26 that Russia had launched 188 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to attack the country overnight. According to Kyiv, this is a record number of UAV attacks by Moscow. On the other hand, Moscow has also recently sent out messages of readiness to discuss with the upcoming administration of US President-elect Donald Trump about a peaceful solution.
In fact, both sides have increased their air attacks in recent days. On November 25, Ukrainska Pravda cited a number of analysts as saying that Ukraine had for the first time launched ATACMS missiles with cluster munitions to attack the Kursk-Vostochny military airport (Kursk province, Russia). Since last week, after the US media reported that the administration of current President Joe Biden had allowed Kyiv to use long-range weapons provided by Washington to attack Russian territory, Ukraine has launched a number of ATACMS missiles against enemy territory.
The Ukraine conflict is entering what some Russian and Western officials say could be its most dangerous phase yet, after Moscow's forces made some of their biggest territorial gains and Washington authorized Kyiv to launch retaliatory strikes with US missiles, analysts say.
In an analysis sent to Thanh Nien, an expert from Eurasia Group (USA), the world's leading political risk research and consulting firm, compared what is happening in the Ukraine conflict to the efforts of two football teams in the final minutes of a match. "The match whistle will soon sound after January 20, 2025 (when Mr. Trump takes office)," the expert from Eurasia Group (USA) analyzed.
Responding to Thanh Nien, a military intelligence expert once predicted that Mr. Trump would use the aid "card" to pressure Kyiv to sit at the negotiating table even if he did not receive the condition that Moscow return the occupied areas. Conversely, Moscow was also pressured to sit at the negotiating table under military pressure when Washington increased its weapons support for Kyiv. Therefore, both sides are now trying to gain an advantage before negotiating. For Russia, the advantage is successfully occupied areas, for Ukraine, the advantage is military deterrence capable of attacking deep into the enemy's territory.
"Toys" of both sides
Russia recently used an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) to attack Ukraine as a deterrent message not only to Kyiv but also to the EU. But this is probably the highest escalation Russia can take, if not counting the nuclear warhead that IRBMs can carry. Without a nuclear warhead, even Russia launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is not much more meaningful than an IRBM.
Responding to Thanh Nien about the possibility of Moscow using nuclear weapons, a US military intelligence expert assessed: "Moscow has implied the possibility of a nuclear attack. But in reality, if Russia uses nuclear weapons to attack Ukraine, in the current weather with lots of wind, the nuclear radiation emitted will affect Belarus, Russia and neighboring NATO members at a level of severity almost equal to Ukraine."
Meanwhile, the US has just officially confirmed that it has allowed Ukraine to use long-range weapons to attack Russian territory. Thus, Washington may soon send more ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. In addition, in recent days, some unconfirmed information has said that the US is about to promote the transfer of JASSM missiles to Ukraine. In fact, this information has been available since September but has not been confirmed yet. JASSM is a highly accurate air-to-ground missile with a range of about 370 km.
Not significantly further than the 300 km range of the ATACMS, but the JASSM can be launched from an F-16 fighter jet, so its combat range will be much greater. However, the JASSM transfer process will require a certain amount of time before Ukraine can operate it.
For now, according to Bloomberg, the UK has just decided to transfer more Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine for use. The highest version of Storm Shadow has a range of about 500 km.
Thus, both Russia and Ukraine - with the support of the West - seem to be trying to unleash all their (possible) offensive capabilities against the other.
Source: https://thanhnien.vn/xung-dot-ukraine-sap-den-hoi-choi-tat-tay-185241126230950443.htm
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