Many projects are expected to open for sale in 2024
The sharp increase in supply in the coming period is also mentioned in the comments of many real estate consulting and trading companies. Specifically, according to the forecast report on housing supply in 2024, Savills Vietnam said that the city market will have more than 16,000 apartments and 2,000 low-rise houses deployed. Neighboring provinces such as Binh Duong and Dong Nai will have more than 6,000 low-rise houses and 9,000 apartments for sale. However, with the condition that the legal procedures for the projects of investors are completed on schedule, the above figure is feasible.
CBRE Vietnam’s report also shows that the real estate supply in Ho Chi Minh City is still quite low, approximately 10,000 apartments and 1,000 low-rise housing products. In neighboring provincial markets, the low-rise housing supply will be more prosperous with an expected 3,000-4,000 products being deployed.
Many projects are being implemented vigorously at the end of the year.
According to actual records, from the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2023, many apartment projects in the Southern region have begun construction, expected to be offered for sale early next year. For example, in Ho Chi Minh City, there are a number of outstanding projects such as Emeria Vo Chi Cong, Gem Riverside (District 2), The Global City, Eaton Park (Thu Duc City), Zeit Geist (Nha Be) ...
Or in Binh Duong, some projects are attracting customers and investors with mid-range prices such as Bcons Binh Thang, Green Tower (Di An City), A&T Sky Garden Thuan An, Sylife Thuan An, Flex Thuan An (Thuan An City) ... are also expected to be offered for sale in the first phase of 2024. These projects are currently constructing model houses and developing brokerage activities vigorously.
According to the selling price information revealed by investors, most of the projects expected to open for sale in 2024 are mainly in the mid-range and high-end price range. Some projects in District 2 also have prices above 100 million VND/m2. Products with prices in the upper mid-range segment are mainly located in Binh Duong or areas far from the center of Ho Chi Minh City.
Many projects are in the high-end segment, especially in the East of Ho Chi Minh City.
This issue was also raised in a previous forecast by Cushman & Wakefield. The company predicted that at least 60% of new supply in Ho Chi Minh City would be priced above VND60 million per square meter. Even in provincial markets, apartment prices averaged VND38-46 million per square meter (including VAT).
Similarly, Ms. Duong Thuy Dung, CEO of CBRE Vietnam, also commented that 71% of the apartment basket next year will still be high-end houses, even falling into the luxury and super luxury price range.
Liquidity and supply are still unlikely to have any sudden changes.
There is a similarity in the opinions of research companies, that although the source will improve, there will be no breakthrough. The reason is that legal problems cannot be resolved overnight and the general difficulties of the market in 2023 may still last at least until the first half of 2024.
In particular, many opinions say that market liquidity will not increase sharply but will develop slowly because the expected market supply has not "hit" the actual demand in the affordable segment for real buyers.
Meanwhile, products serving real housing needs such as apartments will be prioritized in investors’ portfolios next year because they can generate regular cash flow and maintain stable prices. These will also be the segments that will recover the earliest in the market in the coming time.
According to a recent report on real estate consumer sentiment published by Batdongsan.com.vn, 65% of respondents said they would buy real estate next year. However, 46% of respondents said that real estate prices are quite high and 26% said that real estate prices are very high. Meanwhile, the price range that home buyers want and are interested in for apartments is 28% for apartments priced under 2 billion VND and 45% for apartments priced from 2-4 billion VND.
In addition, this survey also shows that the home buying trend of customers will be very different. In addition to stricter requirements on the quality and legality of projects, buyers will want more about the reputation of the investor, sales policies and consider payment incentives, selling prices and long-term potential of the project before paying.
The above reasons are also the basis for the liquidity not being able to increase dramatically, the market also cannot enter the stage of easy buying, easy selling. According to Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh - Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn, the Vietnamese real estate market will enter a period of prosperity from the second quarter to the fourth quarter of 2025 with expectations of strong economic development, and increased investment capital in the real estate sector.
In addition, the financial potential of investors and the improved monetary environment lead to a widespread recovery in supply and liquidity, and real estate prices during this period will also improve along with supply and liquidity.
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