(NLDO) - If it receives unfavorable news accompanied by fierce selling pressure, VN-Index may lose the near support level of 1,230 points, preparing to enter a period of price decline...
That is one of the three scenarios that Tien Phong Securities Company (TPS) has just proposed in its February 2025 market strategy report. Specifically, TPS's analysis department has proposed three scenarios for the VN-Index with important milestones. In the negative scenario (20% probability), TPS believes that it is necessary to consider that if it receives unfavorable news and drastic actions from selling pressure, the market will lose the near support level of 1,230 points. At this time, the market may be preparing to enter a bearish phase - a confirmation of the official decline when the index loses the 1,220 point threshold.
At that time, investors prioritize risk management for the portfolio with a high cash ratio of 50-70%. VN-Index in this scenario will fluctuate from 1,163 - 1,197 points.
Negative scenario of VN-Index breaking the 1,220 point mark in February by TPS
Currently, market liquidity continues to decline. From the beginning of 2025 to now, the average transaction value has reached VND 11,730 billion, 29.2% lower than the whole year of 2024.
On the contrary, with a positive scenario (50% probability), VN-Index could rise to 1,370 - 1,380 points. If the market breaks the resistance at 1,275 - 1,280 points, investors can expect the market to escape the accumulation range to form a medium-term uptrend with a target at 1,370 - 1,380 points.
For the whole year of 2025, experts from Thien Viet Securities Company (TVS) believe that VN-Index could rise to around 1,380 - 1,400 points. Vietnam's continued macroeconomic growth will be the main driving force supporting the stock market's upward scenario.
Notably, TVS believes that foreign capital flows may return to the Vietnamese stock market thanks to the market upgrade when it meets the criteria for FTSE Russell's upgrade assessment. The Vietnamese stock market may be upgraded in the September 2025 assessment period.
"If the KRX system is deployed this year, it will help improve settlement time, enhance the quality of the trading system and contribute to increasing products on the market. The world's interest rate level will continue to decrease in 2025 due to the interest rate reduction process of central banks around the world. The decrease in base interest rates in developed markets can help investment flows return to frontier and emerging markets" - TVS experts forecast.
In the morning trading session on February 13, VN-Index continued to fluctuate within a narrow range around 1,267 points, slightly up from the previous session; HNX Index also increased slightly to 229.5 points; Upcom Index traded at 97.2 points.
Liquidity has decreased and remained low, with the transaction value on the HOSE floor as of 11am this morning being just over VND4,300 billion.
Many investors expect the stock market to soon become active again in February 2025, after a series of positive information related to the GDP growth momentum of the economy this year of over 8%; credit growth from 16%, exports, FDI, tourism are expected to be positive...
Source: https://nld.com.vn/mot-cong-ty-chung-khoan-vua-dua-ra-du-bao-gay-soc-196250213111825732.htm
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