Will the bull run begin?

Coffee prices are forecast to increase slightly in the domestic market on July 30, 2024. According to data from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's coffee exports to the UK in June 2024 reached 2,180 tons; worth 9.1 million USD, up 24.4% in volume and 15.1% in value compared to May. However, compared to June 2023, our country's coffee exports to this country decreased by 44.6% in volume and 17.5% in value.

In the first 6 months of 2024, Vietnam exported 16,540 tons of coffee to the UK, worth 65.2 million USD; a decrease of 22.8% in volume but an increase of 29.9% in value compared to the same period last year.

Also in June 2024, the average export price of coffee from Vietnam to the UK reached 4,174 USD/ton; down 7.5% compared to May but up 49.0% over the same period in 2023. In the first 6 months of 2024, the average export price of this agricultural product from Vietnam to the UK reached 3,941 USD/ton; up 68.4% over the same period last year.

Coffee price forecast for July 30, 2024: Will a series of price increases begin?

In the domestic market, today's coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on July 29, 2024 as follows, according to www.giacaphe.com, domestic coffee prices are stable compared to yesterday, ranging from 123,400 to 124,000 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 123,700 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 124,000 VND/kg.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 123,400 VND/kg.

Coffee prices today, July 29, in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 123,800 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 123,700 VND/kg.

London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Updated world coffee prices at 20:45 on July 29, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 4,278 USD/ton, down 24 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session. The delivery term for November 2024 was 4,130 USD/ton, down 20 USD; the delivery term for January 2025 was 3,988 USD/ton, up 4 USD and the delivery term for March 2025 was 3,853 USD/ton, up 4 USD.

New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:45 on July 29, 2024 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 226.90 - 230.50 cents/lb.

Specifically, the September 2024 delivery period is 230.50 cents/lb; up 0.25 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The December 2024 delivery period is 229.55 cents/lb, up 0.40 cents/lb; the March 2025 delivery period is 228.75 cents/lb, up 0.85 cents/lb and the May 2025 delivery period is 226.90 cents/lb, up 1.25 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 20:45 on July 29, 2024 decreased slightly. Specifically, the delivery period for September 2024 is 286.65 USD/ton, down 0.49%; the delivery period for December 2024 is 281.50 USD/ton (down 0.27%); the delivery period for March 2025 is 277.35 USD/ton (down 1.98%) and the delivery period for May 2025 is 274.30 USD/ton, down 1.90%.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil floor, it will be open from 19:00 – 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.

Favorable weather in Vietnam and Brazil has eased concerns about next season’s coffee output. However, in the longer term, climate change is expected to cause a sharp decline in 2024/25 coffee output.

As of July 23, 2024, Brazil’s coffee harvest was 81% complete. Mexico and Central America’s export seasons are coming to an end, with supplies tightening.

Citi has revised down its forecasts for this year’s production in both Vietnam and Brazil. The global market now sees a surplus of 100,000 60kg bags in 2023/24. It now expects Arabica prices to average $2.45/lb in Q3, 10 US cents higher than its previous forecast.

* Information for reference only

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-3072024-lieu-co-bat-dau-chuoi-ngay-tang-gia-335534.html