(Dan Tri) - Experts say that housing prices have been increasing continuously for many years, exceeding people's ability to pay. Whether housing prices can decrease or not is a difficult question, a huge challenge for the market.
At the Real Estate 2025 seminar co-organized by VTV Digital, the story about real estate prices and the ability to own a house for young people and young families received much attention.
Economist Huynh Phuoc Nghia said that with the standard of living in Ho Chi Minh City, owning a house before the age of 30 is extremely difficult for the majority of people. To be able to own a house, young people and young families need support from policies. However, Mr. Phuoc also noticed that the psychology of home ownership among young people is decreasing, people under 30 are not too interested in this, because they are afraid of financial pressure and having to strive too much.
Sharing the same view, economist Dinh The Hien said that the rapid increase in real estate prices has made home ownership out of reach for people. Looking back at the 2012-2013 period, Mr. Hien said that the price of mid-range apartments in Ho Chi Minh City was about 22-25 million VND/m2, high-end apartments were about 30 million VND/m2, and the salary of office professionals was about 20 million VND/month.
After more than a decade, by this year, the price of mid-range apartments has reached 50-65 million VND/m2, but the salary of office professionals is only about 25 million VND/m2. Salaries cannot keep up with the increase in real estate prices, Mr. Hien affirmed.
Rapidly increasing house prices make it difficult for people to access housing (Illustration: Trinh Nguyen).
Can real estate prices decrease to make housing more accessible to people? This big question is raised by Ms. Duong Thuy Dung - Senior Director of CBRE Vietnam - who believes that there is no reason for investors to reduce selling prices. She also believes that this is a difficult question and a huge challenge for the market. Because looking at the current supply, 80% are high-end, luxury apartments and prices will increase steadily by 8-10% per year.
To reduce real estate prices, experts from CBRE Vietnam recommend promoting population dispersion and expanding urban areas. In Ho Chi Minh City, investors can see many central areas with apartments priced at VND150-200 million/m2, but suburban areas are only VND40-50 million/m2. Therefore, if people can move further, prices will decrease, but that is a story for the next 5-10 years.
Looking back at the real estate market over the past 10 years, the above unit's data shows that in the period of 2011-2012, the supply of new apartments in both Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi decreased to about 15,000-17,000 units, and the selling price also decreased by 7-10%. The market witnessed a sharp decline in apartment prices. This was a time when loan interest rates were high at 15-17%/year, the CPI was also high, and GDP growth averaged 5.6%/year.
Housing prices and supply in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi over 10 years (Source: CBRE Vietnam).
After a difficult period, in 2013-2014, the market recovered and supply increased. The number of newly offered apartments increased to 20,000, then 30,000-40,000, peaking at 80,000 in 2016. At this time, positive macroeconomic indicators supported the market, low interest rates, and buyers benefited from home loans. Apartment prices also increased moderately, about 3-4%/year. The market also received a boost from the 2014 Land Law and agreements.
CBRE Vietnam experts see the market cycle repeating after 10 years. 2024 will witness a strong transformation, the market will welcome about 30,000 apartments, 80% of which will come from Hanoi. In 2025, the market is expected to have about 35,000-40,000 apartments. This shows a recovery but it will take a long time to return to the peak.
Mr. Pham Dang Ho - Head of Housing Development and Real Estate Market Department, Ho Chi Minh City Department of Construction - commented that in 2024, the real estate market will recover but slowly. Supply will improve compared to the period of 2022-2023.
From August 1, 3 laws related to real estate were passed, the decrees implementing the laws also took effect at the same time. This is unprecedented in the law-making process in Vietnam, demonstrating synchronization, urgency, and seriousness. The market is increasingly transparent, ensuring the law, minimizing risks for people.
According to Mr. Ho, the laws have basically solved some problems, but the procedures still need to be fully implemented. The time to launch projects is still long, leading to delays and making investors tired.
Ho Chi Minh City has recognized this and has established a working group to appraise projects right at the stage of approving investment policies to avoid overlap. In the immediate future, this working group will appraise social housing projects, then commercial housing projects.
Source: https://dantri.com.vn/bat-dong-san/kho-so-huu-nha-truoc-tuoi-30-20241218113109443.htm
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