Concerns about global coffee supplies have further boosted prices as funds buy amid continued tightness in coffee prices.
Coffee price today 2/3/2025
World coffee prices have continued to set new records for both robusta and arabica, with concerns over low supplies and disruptions from both Vietnam and Brazil pushing prices up.
Domestic coffee prices approached the 130,000 VND/kg mark, soaring by 3,100 - 3,800 VND/kg during the Lunar New Year holiday.
At the end of the week, Robusta coffee futures for delivery in March 2025 increased by 174 USD/ton. Arabica coffee futures for delivery in March 2025 increased by 30.3 cents/lb. Domestic coffee prices increased by 3,000 VND/kg. Last week, Robusta coffee futures for delivery in March 2025 increased by 538 USD/ton. Arabica coffee futures for delivery in March 2025 increased by 19.2 cents/lb. Domestic coffee prices increased by 5,000 - 5,500 VND/kg.
The current market volatility is also being compounded by unsold coffee supplies from Brazil’s 2024-25 crop, which are needed to satisfy both domestic and export markets over the next six months. This is believed to be because farmers in top producer Brazil are reluctant to sell due to uncertainty over the upcoming crop and expectations of higher prices.
The coffee market has also been affected by bullish speculation, stemming from the prospects of the new crop in Brazil. Currently, forecasts indicate that the total coffee production in the upcoming season will be lower than initially forecast.
The Brazilian Real continues to strengthen against the US dollar and has gained 5.3% since the start of 2025. This, coupled with the news that around 85% of Brazil’s 2024-25 crop has been sold, as well as news that 2025-26 coffee sales are around 6% lower than last year, has supported the market’s bullish momentum.
As the new crop is still developing, supply shortages and price pressures have emerged in Brazil’s domestic market. However, some argue that coffee supplies will remain stable to meet both domestic and export demand from the upcoming harvest, expected in the second half of 2025.
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of last week's trading session (January 31), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London for delivery in March 2025 decreased by 16 USD, trading at 5,718 USD/ton. The delivery in May 2025 decreased by 15 USD, trading at 5,694 USD/ton. Average trading volume.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased sharply, with the March 2025 delivery term up 4.45 cents, trading at 377.85 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2025 delivery term increased 3.2 cents, trading at 371.35 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.
Domestic coffee prices on February 1 remained stable in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
Concerns about coffee supply in 2025 are worth noting, as there are a number of factors that could affect global coffee production, including:
Climate change could alter weather conditions, making it more difficult to grow coffee in major producing areas such as Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia and countries in Central America. Heat, drought or excessive rain could affect coffee yields.
In some producing areas, coffee growing areas are decreasing due to changes in agricultural strategies or due to soil erosion and lack of investment in new farming technologies.
Diseases such as coffee rust and the presence of pests can reduce crop yields. Controlling diseases and pests requires a lot of effort and expense from farmers.
In some areas, labor shortages due to population changes or political instability can affect coffee harvesting and processing.
Some coffee growers are switching to sustainable farming methods, however this can sometimes reduce yields in the short term before the new methods are widely adopted.
However, despite these concerns, the coffee market has the potential to self-correct through improved farming technology, improved crop varieties, and sustainable agricultural management. Of course, if these issues are not addressed in time, there is a possibility of supply shortages or continued high coffee prices in 2025.
Volcafe's December 2024 survey forecast for global arabica coffee in 2025/26 is a decline of 8.5 million bags, larger than the 5.5 million bag deficit in 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficit.
Meanwhile, the General Statistics Office of Vietnam reported on January 10 that Vietnam's coffee exports in 2024 fell by 17.1% year-on-year to 1.35 million tons.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-322025-gia-ca-phe-trong-nuoc-tang-gan-4000-dongkg-co-nen-lo-ngai-ve-nguon-cung-nam-2025-302856.html
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