The 2024-2025 coffee crop has begun to enter harvest season, with the country's output expected to be around 1.47 million tons, a sharp decrease compared to the previous crop due to unfavorable weather, but prices will be much better than previous years, according to Vicofa's assessment.
Coffee price today 11/8/2024
World coffee prices suddenly skyrocketed to triple digits after many sessions of strong fluctuations. Arabica coffee prices reached a three-week high and robusta reached a one-week high.
Domestic coffee prices today are trading in the range of 107,500 - 108,000 VND/kg.
Thus, the world coffee price unexpectedly increased by more than 4% on both exchanges, mainly due to increased buying by hedge funds on the exchanges and unfavorable weather in leading producers Brazil and Vietnam. Brazil is currently the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, with an average export market share of 32% of the global market over the past 5 years. Vietnam is the second largest coffee exporter and the world's leading producer of robusta coffee.
Coffee prices on both exchanges increased sharply when the USD turned to decrease again, when the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Jerome Powell did not give any clues that the US Central Bank is likely to temporarily stop cutting interest rates in the near future, after implementing a 25 basis point cut at the recent policy meeting.
While arabica coffee prices were supported by concerns that unusually dry conditions in Brazil could impact the country’s coffee output, robusta coffee prices were rising as heavy rains in Vietnam could flood coffee farms. Vietnam, the world’s largest source of robusta, is entering the early stages of its coffee harvest. However, the main coffee-producing region will see heavy rains through Friday, according to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting.
At this time, it is forecasted that Vietnam's main coffee growing areas will experience dangerous weather phenomena such as tropical depressions, heavy rain, thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, and hail. In addition, rainfall from November 2024 to January 2025 is forecast to be 10-30% higher than the average of many years. Unseasonal rains will occur more frequently and the rainy season is likely to end later than the average of many years.
However, experts predict that the price increase will be somewhat limited by the strong sales volume from Brazil. Preliminary data from the Brazilian government shows that the country's green coffee exports in October increased by 12% compared to the same period last year, reaching a total of 4.65 million bags. Attractive prices have boosted sales activities of Brazilian producers. Meanwhile, domestic coffee consumption in Brazil has also seen a strong increase, becoming the second largest coffee consumer in the world after the United States, with about 22.5 million bags per year.
Brazil exported 15.64 million bags in the first four months of the current crop year (July-October), up 18.75% year-on-year, despite congestion at the country's ports.
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| Domestic coffee prices on November 7 decreased by VND1,000/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: YouTube) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on November 7, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange increased sharply, the delivery term for January 2025 increased by 179 USD, trading at 4,486 USD/ton. The delivery term for March 2025 increased by 176 USD, trading at 4,424 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased, with the December 2024 delivery term up 11.65 cents, trading at 260.40 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2025 delivery term increased 11.70 cents, trading at 259.75 cents/lb. Average trading volume is high.
Domestic coffee prices on November 7 decreased by VND1,000/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), in the 2023-2024 crop year, decaf coffee will become one of the three main types of Vietnamese green coffee exports.
Last year, decaf coffee exports reached 37,000 tons, worth 172 million USD. With this export turnover, decaf coffee ranked 3rd in the group of green coffee after robusta coffee with 1.2 million tons, worth 4 billion USD and arabica coffee with 53,000 tons, worth 212 million USD.
In the group of green coffee exports in the 2023-2024 crop year, the export price of decaf coffee is the highest with an average of 4,695 USD/ton; meanwhile, the average price of arabica green coffee is 4,004 USD/ton and that of robusta green coffee is 3,298 USD/ton. In the Vietnamese market, the trend of using decaf coffee is also increasing, especially in large cities.
What is decaf coffee? Decaf coffee is an abbreviation of the English word decaffeinated coffee, which means coffee that has had caffeine removed. It is coffee from coffee beans that have had at least 97% of the caffeine removed before going through the roasting and grinding process.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-8112024-gia-ca-phe-but-pha-robusta-tang-3-con-so-thi-truong-goi-ten-mot-mat-hang-xu-huong-va-gia-tot-292988.html
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