(PLVN) - 2024 is considered a special year for the Vietnamese economy because in the context of global difficulties, international organizations and major financial institutions in the world continuously change their growth forecasts for Vietnam in an increasingly positive direction towards the end of the year. As a result, the Vietnamese economy has achieved a spectacular finish, exceeding both the set target and international forecasts.
Growth projections are constantly changing.
The global economy in 2024 continues to face challenges from weak growth and slow inflation, the tight monetary policy from previous years will continue until the end of the third quarter of 2024 before being partially loosened, the global supply chain and key transport flows are always at risk of disruption and interruption.
In particular, the trend of de-globalization is rising, protectionist policies are reappearing in many countries in different forms. Many export markets are increasingly applying new standards and regulations related to supply chains, raw materials, labor, and the environment for imported products; The trend of developing circular economy, green economy, and digital economy continues to reshape global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows... which has directly impacted Vietnam's highly open economy.
In fact, the difficulties that have a strong impact on the world economy are not only political conflicts but also economic issues such as: Some global supply chains have been broken, causing prices of many essential goods to fluctuate sharply, especially the break in the transportation - logistics chain, causing freight rates to increase for a long time. Many important shipping routes such as the Panama Canal, Suez Canal and Red Sea are blocked; strikes at 36 seaports along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico of the United States have caused stagnation and greatly affected the supply chain of many types of goods in the world... Container shipping rates from Asia to the US and Europe have at times increased 2-3 times compared to the previous year, putting great pressure on export enterprises; along with that, global trade and investment have declined; economic recovery is slow and unstable; exchange rates and interest rates fluctuate complicatedly...
Domestically, Vietnam also faced unfavorable natural disasters, in particular, super typhoon No. 3 and typhoon No. 4 caused widespread destruction and damage in the northern and central provinces.
However, in that context, with the great efforts and determination of the entire political system, the business community and the support of international friends, Vietnam's economy continues to affirm its clear recovery, with each month being better than the previous month, and each quarter's growth higher than the previous quarter. International organizations highly appreciate and continuously adjust our country's growth forecast in an increasingly positive direction; businesses restore confidence in the economic outlook... Major balances are ensured.
Bright spots of Vietnam's economy in 2024
Vietnam's economic outlook in 2024 is viewed quite positively, with opportunities and risks balanced despite the world's difficult situations. And the growth results in 2024 have shown that the assessments and perspectives on Vietnam's economy by international organizations are quite accurate. Accordingly, GDP in 2024 increased by 7.09% - higher than the set target, higher than the (adjusted) forecasts of international organizations.
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In 2024, the number of tourists coming to Vietnam will be equivalent to 97.6% compared to 2019 - before the Covid-19 pandemic appeared. (Photo: NIA) |
In particular, import and export are the highlight and one of the main drivers of economic growth with the total turnover for the year reaching a new record (nearly 800 billion USD), up 15.4% over the previous year. In particular, exports reached 405.53 billion USD, up 14.3%, more than twice the set target; The trade balance recorded the 9th consecutive year of high trade surplus (nearly 25 billion USD), helping to increase foreign exchange reserves, stabilize exchange rates and macroeconomic indicators.
It should be added that the export growth rate of the domestic economic sector (up 19.8%) is higher than the growth rate of the FDI sector; There are 37 items with export turnover of over 1 billion USD (up 2 items compared to 2023), accounting for 94.3% of total export turnover; Export turnover to most markets and major trading partners of our country has had a positive recovery and achieved high growth.
In particular, industrial production recovered strongly, growing spectacularly with the industrial production index IIP increasing by 8.4%, the highest increase since 2020. Along with that, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector in 2024 achieved a positive growth rate of 3.27%, despite being affected by natural disasters and floods.
Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong - General Director of the General Statistics Office added that the growth in 2024 will also be significantly contributed by the tourism industry. Accordingly, with favorable visa policies, promoted tourism promotion programs, and prestigious tourism awards presented by international organizations, the number of international visitors to Vietnam will increase in 2024.
In 2024, the total number of international visitors to Vietnam will reach nearly 17.6 million, an increase of 39.5% compared to the previous year and equal to 97.6% of 2019 - the year before the Covid-19 pandemic. Of which, visitors arriving by air will reach more than 14.8 million, accounting for 84.4% of international visitors to Vietnam and an increase of 35.6% compared to the previous year; by road will reach nearly 2.5 million, accounting for 14.2% and an increase of 63.3%; by sea will reach nearly 248.1 thousand, accounting for 1.4% and an increase of 96.7%.
In addition, the total social investment capital in 2024 at current prices is estimated at VND 3,692 trillion, up 7.5% over 2023, higher than the 6.6% increase of the previous year. This figure reflects the positive recovery of production and business activities. Foreign direct investment capital realized in Vietnam in 2024 is estimated at USD 25.35 billion, up 9.4% over the previous year, reaching the highest level ever.
It is estimated that in 2024, the total social investment capital at current prices is estimated to reach VND 3,692.1 trillion, an increase of 7.5% over the previous year.
Growth beyond expectations
The General Director of the General Statistics Office assessed that the growth rate of 7.09% in the context of the world economy and politics in 2024 is considered a very positive growth rate, demonstrating the high determination, great efforts, drastic, timely and effective actions of the entire political system in directing, operating and implementing socio-economic development tasks in the face of rapid and unusual fluctuations in the region and the world, as well as in the face of damage caused by natural disasters, storms and floods causing great damage to production, business and people's lives in our country.
Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Hong Son - Deputy Head of the Central Economic Commission affirmed that in 2024, for the first time in many years (since 2016), Vietnam has achieved and exceeded all 15/15 socio-economic development targets with many important, comprehensive and outstanding results. Typically, GDP growth for the whole year reached over 7%, continuing to be a bright spot in growth in the region and the world; the economic scale reached about 470 billion USD; growth quality was improved, labor productivity growth rate was estimated at 5.7%, exceeding the set target; Macroeconomic stability was maintained, inflation was controlled, major balances of the economy were ensured; Total state budget revenue exceeded 19% of the estimate, contributing to supplementing resources for development investment; FDI attraction reached about 40 billion USD, belonging to the group of 15 developing countries attracting the largest FDI in the world...
The World Bank representative also commented that, in the context of global instability leading to changes in trade and investment patterns, Vietnam is benefiting from the signing of international trade agreements in the region and with other major countries, which can help create more open and stable trade regimes. The development of digital platforms has increased the productivity of enterprises in a number of sectors. Increased productivity from automation and higher production scale has helped create jobs for highly skilled workers.
The Asian Development Bank assessed that a strong recovery in export-oriented manufacturing and trade, supported by a positive recovery in the US economy, supported Vietnam's GDP growth. In addition, accelerated public investment and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies will continue to stimulate domestic demand. Despite the severe impacts caused by Typhoon Yagi in many parts of the country, the Government's prompt response and recovery efforts have limited the negative impact on growth.
Source: https://baophapluat.vn/dau-an-dac-biet-cua-phat-trien-kinh-te-2024-post538371.html
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