For the past 20 years, the Vietnamese stock market has been hovering around the 1,200 level, causing many investors to be "worried" - Photo: QUANG DINH
Last weekend, VN-Index touched 1,300 points for a few minutes, then could not maintain this level when selling pressure increased sharply. What do experts predict about the possibility of surpassing the old peak this week?
Stocks surpass 1,300 and then continue or retreat?
* Ms. Tran Thi Khanh Hien - Director of MB Securities Analysis (MBS):
- The market increased last week, foreign investors also reduced their net selling momentum and actively returned to net buying in many sessions, liquidity improved.
The possibility of surpassing the 1,300 peak is only a matter of time, but the trend that is of interest is how it will be after surpassing it? Will it continue or return to the 1,200 zone as it has been repeating for many years, causing lethargy and loss of confidence in investors?
Some macro risks have passed, exchange rates have cooled down. Many manufacturing and export enterprises have recorded growth.
The last quarter of the year is usually the most active period in a company’s business cycle. In addition, the market upgrade story is still being promoted with new developments.
With the above factors, we maintain our forecast that the VN-Index will be in the 1,340 - 1,380 point range by the end of this year.
Mrs. Tran Thi Khanh Hien
However, the Vietnamese stock market remains unpredictable, with some factors still worth noting.
Recently, the world market increased but Vietnam market did not increase. The proportion of institutional investors is not much while the number of individual investors is overwhelming, so it is easily volatile.
The risk tolerance of individual investors will be more short-term, leading to market fluctuations. Therefore, in the long term, there is still a need for changes in the nature and structure of the market to move towards more sustainable development.
In addition, production and exports have recovered well since March, but consumer demand has not recovered accordingly. Data still shows flat consumption growth, indicating that people's psychology of tightening spending still exists.
As for foreign capital, they have withdrawn from the Vietnamese stock market quite strongly throughout the past year. The Fed has lowered interest rates, so there is not much expectation that foreign capital will return to Vietnam strongly at this time, but we should only hope that the sell-off will decrease.
This 1,300 peak is different
* Mr. Nguyen The Minh - Director of Research and Development of Individual Clients, Yuanta Securities Vietnam:
- The trading sessions last weekend showed that the fear of the 1,300 point mark returning caused the market to experience corrections.
Although the fear is still there, the difference compared to the period in March and June this year is that the VN30 index has surpassed its peak (1,352 points).
Mr. Nguyen The Minh
The big driving force comes from large-cap stocks, including the banking group. In big market waves, there is always support from banks, securities and real estate.
Recently, the banking and securities groups have increased in price with high liquidity. Investors can consider cash flow movement when targeting banking and securities stocks.
Meanwhile, with small and mid-cap stocks, cash flow spreads more slowly and investors will be challenged to be patient before seeing clear results with this group.
Investors should be more cautious
* Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh - Head of Macro and Market Strategy Department, VNDirect Securities:
- The VN-Index retreating to near 1,290 points is not surprising. Since the beginning of the year, the area above 1,300 points has always been under strong profit-taking pressure and difficult to maintain.
In the context that there is no sign that the VN-Index can easily surpass the 1,300-point mark, investors should consider adjusting their psychology to be more cautious, avoiding the Fomo mentality of "buying stocks that have had a hot growth period".
Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh
At the same time, portfolio risk management needs to be given high priority, accordingly, investors need to proactively take profits from some stocks that have increased rapidly by more than 15% in the past 2 weeks and reduce the proportion of stocks to a safe threshold (below 100%).
It is necessary to limit new disbursements and the use of financial leverage, at least until the VN-Index clearly confirms its movement trend after retesting the resistance zone of 1,300 points.
New disbursements should be made when the index successfully and reliably surpasses the resistance zone of 1,300 points or retreats to the support price zone at 1,260-1,270 points.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/chung-khoan-tuan-moi-vuot-nguong-1-300-diem-sau-do-roi-sao-20240930080750625.htm
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