In Just a Few Weeks, Will iPhone Prices Increase Due to Tariffs?

Visitors to an Apple store. Photo: Bloomberg .

Consumers in the US could see a big price increase for their iPhones later this year. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on China are expected to make tech products, from iPhones to laptops to cars to small accessories, more expensive.

Analysts say iPhone prices could rise in the coming weeks or months. Apple’s supply chain is still dependent on China, which is subject to a 145% tariff. Trump previously announced a 90-day delay in imposing reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries, except China.

In the near term, Apple and its partners will have to carefully manage the amount of iPhones they import into the U.S. But if the Trump administration’s tariffs persist, Apple may have to make longer-term adjustments to its sourcing, manufacturing, and even product launch plans.

Time for iPhone price increase

According to CNN , Apple was exempted from tariffs on some products during Mr. Trump's first term. However, there is no sign that the current administration will accept the exemption.

“I think Apple is going to have to go through some pain. That means prices are going to go up,” said Jack Leathem, an analyst at market research firm Canalys .

With 90% of iPhone production and assembly taking place in China, iPhone prices in the US could rise if Mr. Trump maintains the tariff policy, according to Wedbush Securities estimates. However, the exact timing and number are not yet known.

Users buy iPhones at Apple stores. Photo: Bloomberg .

The timing of the price increase depends on the amount of iPhone inventory in the US and also on consumer demand. Although Apple will not launch the iPhone 17 until September, the price increase could happen sooner if inventory runs out.

“In fact, the price increases we’re about to see will impact all Apple phones, as well as other products as inventory runs out,” said Ryan Reith, vice president of IDC ’s Worldwide Device Tracker.

Reith estimates that Apple’s current inventory is enough to “maximize” three weeks of sales, while Canalys estimates that iPhones in the US will last for two to three months.

Meanwhile, market research firm Counterpoint Research estimates that Apple has stockpiled enough inventory for 4.5-6 weeks, but February data shows a “significant spike,” according to senior analyst Gerrit Schneemann.

How much will the iPhone price increase?

While it’s still early to tell what impact tariffs will have on iPhone sales in the US, Canalys analyst Jack Leathem said he has seen “a significant increase in shipments” in recent weeks.

How much the iPhone price increases depends on whether Apple and its partners are willing to bear the additional costs.

Analysts at UBS bank estimate that the lowest version of the iPhone 16 Pro Max (currently priced at $1,200 ), assembled in China, could be 67% more expensive, equivalent to an increase of $800 . Meanwhile, the iPhone 16 Pro assembled in India could be only $45 more expensive.

The timing and price increase of iPhone in the US depends on many factors. Photo: CNET .

According to CNN , the above estimates are based on the 145% tariff announced by Mr. Trump on imports from China, while suspending tariffs for 90 days on other countries. Assuming the tariff policy before April 9, the prices could increase by $675 and $120 , respectively.

Carriers could also offer discounts on older models to encourage customers to buy them, which are currently in low inventory, Reith said. Some installment plans could also help ease the burden on customers.

Data from analytics firm Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP) shows that 55% of phone buyers in the US, including flip phones and feature phones, pay through installment plans.

Will the iPhone launch be delayed?

Mr. Trump has also publicly stated his desire to bring iPhone production to the U.S. However, shifting the supply chain in the short term is not simple.

Apple has moved some of its supply chain operations out of China. According to the Financial Times and the Times of India , the company has increased iPhone imports from India to the US in recent days.

Even if it moves production to the US, Apple will still need to source components from many Asian countries, according to analysis by Bank of America (BoA).

“Everything inside really still goes through China. That’s not going to change anytime soon,” Reith stressed.

Willy Shih, a professor of business administration at Harvard Business School, said that manufacturing iPhones in the US would be more expensive, partly due to high labor costs.

Research from BoA suggests that the cost of manufacturing an iPhone in the US will be about 20% higher, while Wedbush Securities estimates that the selling price of an iPhone assembled in the US could be as high as $3,500 .

iPhone 16 Pro Max (left) and iPhone 16e. Photo: The Verge .

In February, Apple announced plans to invest $500 billion in the US. However, the company did not open an iPhone factory but focused on building a server center for Apple Intelligence, opening an academy, and filming for Apple TV.

In general, building an iPhone assembly plant in the US could take years, while it is unclear how long Mr. Trump’s tariffs will last. Even if the factory is built, finding workers will be a big problem.

“I think it’s going to be very difficult for Apple to build up the workforce. They’re going to have a hard time finding people who are willing to do that work,” said Professor Willy Shih.

Product launch schedules could also change if the tariff situation continues to be difficult, which BoA said could be a potential strategy to mitigate the impact of tariffs, along with supply chain and pricing changes.

Apple hasn’t mentioned any changes to its products or strategy, but Reith speculates that the company could temporarily adjust its product launch schedule and then return to its normal schedule if the U.S. tariffs persist. This is similar to the pandemic in 2020, when Apple launched the iPhone in October instead of September.

“Anything is still possible,” Reith said.

Source: https://znews.vn/khi-nao-iphone-tang-gia-post1544952.html