"Hot" like... coffee prices

The recent price movements of coffee have exceeded the imagination of many people. Therefore, to avoid risks, growers should not speculate, buy and wait for the price to increase, but with the available quantity, divide it into batches to sell according to financial needs.

"Crazy" increase

On February 11, coffee in the Central Highlands region had an average price of VND131,000/kg, an increase of VND2,000/kg compared to the previous day. Meanwhile, Robusta coffee prices on the London (UK) exchange ranged from USD5,573 to USD5,696/ton, equivalent to VND140,000 to VND144,000/kg, an increase of USD110 to USD133/ton compared to the previous day. More notably, Arabica coffee prices on the New York (USA) exchange caused a big surprise when in just one trading session, it skyrocketed by USD540 to USD9,460/ton for the March 2025 delivery period.

Mr. Phan Minh Thong, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phuc Sinh Joint Stock Company, said that coffee prices have increased "crazily", beyond imagination and there is still room for further increases. With such high coffee prices, businesses are forced to buy high and sell high according to market prices, not to fix prices early.

Coffee market expert Nguyen Quang Binh commented that the price of Arabica coffee has increased like a "tsunami". The main reason is due to concerns about a poor harvest in the next crop and the fact that financial investors are pouring money into this coffee because of its high profitability.

According to a representative of a coffee exporting company, Brazil is running out of Arabica coffee due to the end of the season. Farmers are selling in small quantities while the weather is harsh, and there are concerns that the next crop will still be scarce.

The new record price of Arabica coffee has given Robusta coffee more support to stay at a high level because the price gap between the two main coffee types in the world is still very large. With the same delivery date in March 2025, the price of Robusta coffee is 3,780 USD/ton lower than Arabica, which is only 60% of the price while in the previous crop, Robusta coffee sometimes surpassed Arabica.

Ms. Nguyen Thi Chien in Dak Ha (Kon Tum province) said that after the harvest, her family only sold 1 ton of coffee beans at 115,000 VND/kg, and about 10 tons of coffee were still in the warehouse even though many traders called to buy. "Last season, my family sold coffee at 73,000 VND/kg, thinking it was a good price, but later regretted selling it too cheaply, so this year we waited. It is expected that in a few days when the coffee price stabilizes, I will sell 1/3, but my family does not need money yet," Ms. Chien said.

According to Ms. Chien, the fluctuating price of coffee makes gardeners nervous, not knowing when is the best time to sell.

Meanwhile, coffee exports from October 2024 to January 2025 have consistently decreased in volume compared to the same period last year. This is a factor that helps coffee prices remain high, leading to record coffee export values. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA) said that coffee beans exported in January reached 137,568 tons, worth 694.93 million USD, down 38.2% year-on-year in volume but up 8.8% in value.

An industry expert said that in previous years, Vietnam usually exported about 200,000 tons of coffee per month during this period. This also means that in the coming time, Vietnam still has a lot of goods to bring to the market. If the sales volume is massive, it can push the price down.

Drying coffee at Vietnam Coffee Academy VCA. Photo: AN NA

Time to sell?

Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Luan, Director of Global Trade Link Company Limited (Meet More coffee brand), commented that Vietnamese farmers have learned from last year's experience and are not rushing to sell when prices have just increased. "Current data shows that the trend is still good for coffee prices. In addition to concerns about crop failure, new information is the possibility of the US imposing tariffs on goods from the South American region. At that time, Brazilian, Colombian, Peruvian coffee... will be even more expensive, creating an advantage for Vietnamese coffee," Mr. Luan explained.

Mr. Luan added that the current coffee price is very beneficial for farmers and most importantly, many farmers still have goods to sell. "From now until June 2025, coffee prices will remain at a good level and the problem of "oversupply" is not a concern yet," Mr. Luan predicted.

From the perspective of coffee growers and traders, Mr. Nguyen Huu Long, Director of Vietnam Coffee Academy Joint Stock Company (Gia Lai province), said that this year's drought is more severe than last year's, so there is still concern about crop failure next season. "Domestic coffee prices are currently nearly 15,000 VND/kg lower than the London floor price, while previously they were equivalent or only about 5,000 VND/kg lower. Is there a phenomenon of domestic price restraint to benefit export enterprises?" - Mr. Long raised the question.

Regarding when to sell coffee, Mr. Long said it is difficult to give advice to farmers at this time. "But if I have a few tons of coffee, I will not sell it all at once but will divide it into batches, selling it gradually until July 2025," Mr. Long hypothesized.

Meanwhile, Mr. Trinh Duc Minh, Chairman of Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association (Dak Lak), advised farmers not to speculate because it is very risky. "We have to frankly admit that coffee prices are at a very good level, 2-3 times higher than before. When the price reaches the expected level, we can sell according to spending needs, reinvest and take care of the new crop," said Mr. Minh.

According to the business community, although coffee prices are currently very high, the possibility of farmers expanding their cultivation area is almost non-existent because there is no more land. The only way to maintain production is by taking care of the garden and replanting when the garden reaches maturity. Therefore, the coffee industry is not worried about a surplus crisis.

Fear of fake coffee

The overheated price of raw coffee has created favorable conditions for establishments to produce fake coffee, mainly from corn, soybeans, flavorings or waste coffee. At the end of January, Gia Lai provincial authorities discovered three establishments in Pleiku city that were producing and trading "Uyen" branded ground coffee. Here, the subjects were soaking, marinating, and mixing additives and chemicals of unknown origin into coffee to put on the market for consumption. Through appraisal, the authorities determined that 785 kg of coffee was fake.

Not only in Vietnam, but the Brazilian Coffee Roasters Association (ABIC) has also recently spoken out about some companies selling fake coffee products in the domestic market. Previously, ABIC discovered products such as coffee powder but in fact did not contain coffee beans but ingredients such as: husks, coffee leaves, other types of beans and coffee flavoring.

Source: https://baodaknong.vn/nong-nhu-gia-ca-phe-242593.html