Stock liquidity declines
The stock market is witnessing an unclear trend in the VN-Index. However, one of the phenomena that worries investors the most is the "drying up" and "rock bottom" liquidity.
During the trading session on December 19, the entire Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange only had nearly 650 million shares, equivalent to VND 12,805 billion, successfully transferred. This is the lowest level this week and is at the "bottom" of 2023. Notably, the trend of "reverse gear" liquidity has been going on throughout the past time.
Specifically, on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange, the average transaction value in November was 16,562 billion VND, in October it was 14,285 billion VND, in September it was 22,124 billion VND,...
Not only domestic investors "dislike" stocks, foreign investors have also shown a clear move to gradually withdraw capital over a long period of time. From the beginning of 2023 to December 19, foreign investors have net sold nearly 542 million shares, equivalent to VND 18,609 billion. The stocks that foreign investors have divested are mostly blue-chips.
Investors are “disliking” stocks as the liquidity of this market is continuously decreasing. Meanwhile, gold is constantly rising and setting new peaks. Illustrative photo
Both domestic and foreign investors are cautious with stocks. Therefore, experts are not optimistic when predicting the trend of VN-Index in the last days of 2023. And that is also the reason why investors are hesitant when deciding to "put money" to buy stocks.
Commenting on the “near future” of the VN-Index, Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) emphasized the strong corrections before the Lunar New Year holiday in the past two years. The main reason comes from the widespread profit-taking psychology of short-term investors to realize profits and the psychology of “resting on Tet holiday” when staying out of the market.
In addition, VCBS also noted the risk that the new trading system (KRX) may be delayed in its official implementation compared to the plan at the end of this year. This is one of the big expectations in the market, so if the above risk occurs, investors will easily feel disappointed, especially domestic investors. This can create negative impacts on the entire market in the short term and give rise to skepticism.
Gold excitement
While the stock market is less optimistic and is not expected to improve in the last days of the year (both solar and lunar calendars), the gold market is excited.
In the last two days (December 19 and 20), the gold market has been feverish, helping the price of SJC gold reach an all-time high of VND75.50 million/tael on the morning of December 20. The price of SJC gold increased dramatically even though the world gold price increased very slightly. That caused the gap between the two prices to be very high, nearly VND15 million/tael. Recently, this gap was "only" about VND13 million/tael.
The main reason for the obvious “heating up” of SJC gold prices is domestic demand. According to observations at jewelry stores by reporters, recently, the number of people coming to trade gold is quite large, in which, the amount of buying is still higher than selling.
Bao Tin Minh Chau said that at the company's gold trading establishments, this morning, the number of customers buying and selling were 55% and 45% respectively.
Speaking to reporters, Ms. Thu Ha said that for the past six months, she has stopped “pumping money” into stocks. She keeps the extra money in her account so that she can be ready to invest in a suitable channel. Since last weekend, she decided to buy gold.
Faced with such a situation, many investors believe that money is shifting from gold to stocks. However, a financial expert said that the gold market is very modest in size compared to stocks (in terms of transaction value). Currently, there is a phenomenon of some people "prioritizing" gold over stocks, but that does not mean that money from stocks is being shifted to gold.
Because this expert believes that the cash flow is currently “lying still and waiting for the right time”. According to tradition, the stock market is usually gloomy at the end of the year and excited at the beginning of the year. Therefore, after the Lunar New Year at the latest, the stock market will witness abundant cash flow again.
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