DNVN - Sharing with Vietnamese Enterprises, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu - a finance and banking expert, said that Vietnam's economy in 2025 will continue to flourish, but will also face many difficulties.
According to Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, 2024 has ended with many fluctuations for the Vietnamese economy. Recent reports from organizations and comments from experts all say that Vietnam's economic growth has been and will continue to improve.
"Entering 2025, Vietnam's economy will still maintain its growth momentum. However, I think we should not be too optimistic. We need to be sober to look straight at the problem, which is that Vietnam's economy is still facing many challenges," Mr. Hieu commented.
Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu said that Vietnam's economy will flourish in 2025 but will also face many obstacles.
According to Mr. Hieu, there are at least four major obstacles for Vietnam's economy in 2025 from both objective and subjective perspectives.
First is the pressure on monetary policy management. Vietnam will face difficulties and be under a lot of pressure in managing the USD/VND exchange rate when the new administration of President Donald Trump tends to tighten monetary policy, even increasing USD interest rates again instead of lowering them as at present.
Along with that is the adverse impact from global geopolitical instability. Many "hot spots" of conflict in the world as well as the increasingly fierce competition between superpowers and economic blocs have impacted Vietnam when Vietnam has an open economic diplomacy.
Vietnam is part of the global supply and value chain, so it cannot avoid being affected, especially in the export sector. If the US imposes high import tariffs on countries with trade surpluses, Vietnam, one of the 10 countries with the largest trade surplus with the US, will also be affected. In addition, Vietnam still faces difficulties from the internal structure of the economy that have not been thoroughly resolved.
Analyzing the impact of US monetary policy under President Donald Trump, Mr. Hieu said that the new administration with its hardline stance will tend to tighten monetary policy. This could cause the USD/VND exchange rate to continue to increase sharply.
In fact, the VND exchange rate has increased from 24,265 VND/USD (early 2024) to 25,318 VND/USD (as of now), equivalent to an increase of 4.34%. It is forecasted that in 2025, the exchange rate will continue to be affected by the US's new economic policy.
This prediction is not without basis, because before the election, Mr. Trump announced that he would reduce taxes for the rich, especially the owners of large economic corporations. When this promise is fulfilled, the US will face a budget deficit, leading to the pumping of money into circulation, increasing inflation.
"To solve this problem, the FED must reverse its current loose policy to a tight one, pushing the USD exchange rate up against other currencies. This is something that many countries are concerned about and Vietnam is no exception," said Mr. Hieu.
In addition, Mr. Hieu commented that the possibility of increasing US import tariffs on Vietnamese goods may not have a direct impact, due to the stable bilateral relationship. However, Vietnam may be indirectly affected through other countries, especially if the US increases tariffs sharply on China, an important partner in Vietnam's supply chain.
Regarding the challenges from internal limitations, Mr. Hieu emphasized that many businesses are still struggling to recover after COVID-19, especially small and medium enterprises. Many businesses said that they have difficulty accessing credit capital because they do not meet the conditions, while bad debt is increasing, despite the extension and relaxation of the State Bank.
"Without stronger support measures, 2025 could see a sharp increase in the number of bankruptcies," Mr. Hieu warned.
Ha Anh
Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/kinh-te-viet-nam-2025-tiep-da-tang-truong-nhung-doi-mat-nhieu-tro-ngai/20250123091744271
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