After reaching a record high in 2024, Vietnam's rice exports in 2025 are forecast to decrease in both volume and value due to strong competition in the market.
Rice exports face difficulties in some markets
Rice exports in 2024 will continue to set records, helping Vietnam maintain its position in the top 3 largest rice exporting countries in the world. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in 2024, Vietnam exported 9.18 million tons of rice, earning 5.75 billion USD. Compared to 2023, although export volume increased by only about 13%, turnover increased by 23% thanks to a sharp increase in rice export prices.
Mr. Tran Thanh Hai - Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department - Ministry of Industry and Trade informed that rice exports in 2024 reached a record partly due to higher unit prices than previous years. Vietnamese rice reached an average export unit price of 627 USD/ton (previously under 600 USD/ton), an increase of about 9% compared to 2023.
Vietnamese rice has been exported to about 150 countries and territories around the world. Enterprises have also taken advantage of market opportunities from new generation free trade agreements. In addition to traditional markets such as China, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia...
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| Rice exports in 2024 hit record high |
Regarding the market, according to the Trade Office of the Vietnamese Embassy in Singapore, in 2024, Vietnam will remain the third largest rice exporter to Singapore with a turnover of 128.9 million SGD, accounting for 28.25% of the market share.
Vietnam's rice exports to the Singapore market in 2024 continued to grow very well, reaching a turnover of about 128.9 million SGD, an increase of 28.45% over the same period in 2023. Notably, some groups continued to witness very strong increases: sticky rice (turnover of 14.25 million SGD, an increase of more than 4.6 times), broken rice (turnover of 2.6 million SGD, an increase of 113.63%) and milled or peeled fragrant rice (turnover of 44.89 million SGD, an increase of 65.73%).
In the first 6 months of 2024, Vietnam has risen to become Singapore's largest export partner. Although maintaining a high export growth rate for glutinous rice and fragrant rice, the export turnover of the main group, white rice, only increased slightly (0.24%), causing Vietnam's total rice export turnover to Singapore in 2024 to decrease significantly. Vietnam has dropped to Singapore's third largest rice export partner, after India and Thailand.
Indonesia ranked second, reaching 1.26 million tons, worth 746.3 million USD, up 7.9% in volume and 16.6% in value over the same period last year. However, Indonesia's market share in Vietnam's total rice exports last year fell to 13.9% from 14.3% in 2023. The average rice export price to this market reached 594 USD/ton, up 8.1%.
In addition, the amount of rice exported to the next largest market, Malaysia, also increased sharply by 81.4% in volume and doubled in value, reaching 719,241 tons, worth 426 million USD. This market accounts for 8% of Vietnam's rice exports, with an average price increase of 14.6% to 592 USD/ton.
Regarding rice prices, according to the 2024 Rice Market Report recently released by VietnamBiz, updated to the first half of January 2025, Vietnam's rice export prices have dropped sharply to the lowest level in more than two years due to weak demand, while Indian rice prices remain stable near the lowest level in 17 months.
Strengthening rice export promotion
The 2024 Rice Market Report stated that Vietnam's rice exports in 2025 are likely to decrease in both volume and price compared to 2024. The reason is due to weakening demand while competition increases among producing countries. A representative of a business said that there is very little room for rice exports in 2025 in the context that the base price in 2024 is already high while there are too many unfavorable factors related to the market, especially when India loosens its rice export restrictions.
In the past two years, India's inventories have been large because it has tightened its rice exports globally. Therefore, in the coming time, when this country relaxes its rice export restrictions, it will put pressure on other exporting countries, including Vietnam. Moreover, before the harvest season, Vietnamese rice prices are relatively high, so many importers have shifted to other countries to buy goods earlier. In 2025, rice prices may be lower than in 2023 - 2024 and possibly lower than in 2022 or just slightly higher.
Mr. Tran Thanh Hai shared that recently, India has lifted the rice export restriction, the abundant amount of Indian rice has created pressure on the market, causing rice prices to tend to decrease. However, in recent times, Vietnamese enterprises have focused on improving rice quality and building a good rice brand, thereby finding many markets such as Indonesia, Philippines, etc.
At this stage, Mr. Tran Thanh Hai said that rice exporting enterprises need capital support from banks. In addition, the Ministry of Finance also needs to refund export tax early to create favorable conditions for rice exporting enterprises.
With the role of state management, in the coming time, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will step up the implementation of rice export promotion solutions to boost the export of this commodity.
On the side of the Trade Offices, Mr. Cao Xuan Thang, Trade Counselor, Head of the Vietnam Trade Office in Singapore, stated the current situation, in terms of trade promotion, the promotion and introduction of Vietnamese rice products in the Singapore market is still quite limited, there seems to be no large-scale promotion activities by Vietnamese rice enterprises and associations. Currently, the main trade promotion activities and display of Vietnamese rice products are implemented by the Vietnam Trade Office in Singapore. Meanwhile, countries such as Thailand, Japan, and India are very interested in investing in promoting product images and have agreements with importers and distributors on keeping the names and brands of their rice products.
Because Vietnamese enterprises have not focused on investing in large-scale product promotion and introduction activities, importers and distribution systems in Singapore mainly import Vietnamese rice packaged with Singaporean designs, packaging and domestic brands for easy consumption in the market. Vietnamese branded rice products are mostly consumed in small convenience stores or online sales agents of Vietnamese people.
“After the first two quarters of the year holding the leading position in rice exports to the Singaporean market, Vietnam has lost market share to India and Thailand. This shows that businesses need to try harder to find ways to improve their competitiveness and the quality of rice products, because the Singaporean rice market is closely managed by the Singaporean Government, as shown by the Singaporean Government reviewing and granting import licenses as well as directly inspecting and testing the quality of rice before it is put on the market,” Mr. Cao Xuan Thang informed.
Enterprises also need to identify that Vietnamese rice products are not only consumed in the Singapore market but are also exported by Singaporean enterprises to other countries around the world. Therefore, enterprises need to pay attention to the important role of Singapore's transit area, not just the area of nearly 6 million people of the island nation.
| On January 1, 2025, the Government issued Decree 01/2025/ND-CP amending Decree 107/2018/ND-CP on rice export business. This Decree is expected to help rice export activities improve. |
Source: https://congthuong.vn/gia-giam-sau-xuat-khau-gao-nam-2025-du-bao-gap-kho-370632.html
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