France's crucial election

French politics have been thrown into chaos after French President Emmanuel Macron called early parliamentary elections after his centrist Renaissance Party lost to far-right Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) in the recent European Parliament elections. And the French general election results could create a political "earthquake" in Europe, according to an analysis by Politico yesterday (June 25).

Ballots are prepared to be brought to polling stations in Bruges, southwestern France, on June 24.

Risk of civil war

France will hold the first round of elections on June 30. AFP cited the results of surveys over the weekend predicting that the RN party could win 35-36% of the votes, followed by the left-wing alliance with 27-29.5% of the votes. Meanwhile, Mr. Macron's party is expected to come in third with 19.5-22%. The second round will be held on July 7 in constituencies where no candidate has won more than 50% of the votes in the first round.

President Macron suddenly warns of civil war, French opposition reacts

President Macron warned that the RN party and the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NPF) are pushing France to the brink of "civil war", according to AFP yesterday. Speaking on the French podcast "Generation Actuario", President Macron attacked both the RN party and the left-wing coalition France Unbowed, which the leader said were causing serious internal divisions in the country.

If the centrists lose, President Macron will be the one who will be most affected, according to Politico's analysis. Although he has ruled out resigning after the parliamentary election results, Mr. Macron will find it difficult to continue pursuing his ambitious agenda, including strengthening the EU, finding a sustainable balance between Europe and the United States, and implementing reforms to build new domestic strength for France.

Budget on the brink of bankruptcy

On June 24, AFP reported that RN leader Jordan Bardella announced the party's agenda once it wins the upcoming election. Specifically, RN wants to tighten the border to prevent illegal immigration, make it difficult for children whose parents are illegal immigrants to be granted French citizenship, apply measures to reduce inflation (including reducing fuel taxes), reduce the retirement age, and increase wages.

Although they have not yet announced their plans, the left-wing coalition is expected to pursue a similar agenda to the RN in the hope of winning over President Macron’s Renaissance Party. The promises of both campaigns threaten to push the French government budget to the brink of default, raise interest rates and strain relations between France and the EU.

Mr Macron admitted that the RN’s economic promises “may make everyone happy”, but they come at a cost of up to €100bn a year. Meanwhile, the left’s plan would cost four times as much as the RN’s.

Economist Brigitte Granville of Queen Mary University of London (UK) predicted on the website Project Syndicate that early elections could see the election of a government from political parties that refuse to adhere to prudent fiscal principles.

France has been under pressure to reduce its budget deficit, which is higher than the EU’s limit. France’s public debt is estimated to be 112% of the size of its economy, compared to less than 90% in the eurozone and 63% in Germany. France’s budget deficit in 2023 is 5.5% of GDP, while the European Commission recommends that member states maintain it below 3% of GDP, according to the Financial Times on June 24.

Far-right threatens European economy?

Is the success of the far right threatening the European economy? That is the question investors are asking after the RN party won the European Parliament elections against President Macron's Renaissance Party, according to the Financial Times on June 24.

France's main stock index, the CAC 40, fell to a two-year low this week, and French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire warned that the country was on the brink of a financial crisis. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also expressed concern on June 24 about the prospect of a far-right victory in France, after the Berlin government was weakened by the rise of the far-right in Germany.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/cuoc-bau-cu-song-con-o-phap-185240625223239045.htm