According to a report by the OneHousing Center for Market Research and Customer Insights, the Hanoi apartment market in 2025 will have about more than 30,000 new apartments, equivalent to the peak period of 2016 - 2019. The price of newly opened apartments is expected to average 72 million VND/m2 (excluding VAT and maintenance fees), equal to the price in the third quarter of 2024 and an increase of 75% compared to the first quarter of 2022.
However, Mr. Tran Quang Trung, Business Development Director of OneHousing, commented: " Apartment prices in Hanoi have increased rapidly in a short period of time, but in the journey to 2030, this is just the beginning of a new growth cycle ." According to Mr. Trung, it is forecasted that all primary supply in Hanoi in 2025 will be in the high-end and luxury segments, of which luxury accounts for 36%.
In addition, with the change of the new Law, the input costs of projects have increased, investors no longer prioritize the mid-range segment, instead developing projects in the high-end and luxury segments to both achieve the profit expectations of investors and meet the needs of the growing middle class in Vietnam.
Commenting on apartment prices in the coming time, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh - Deputy General Director of PropertyGuru Vietnam said that by the first quarter of 2025, the real estate market will enter a period of consolidating financial resources and completing legal procedures. From the second quarter to the fourth quarter of 2025, the market will flourish and enter a stable development trajectory in 2026. With this trend, apartment prices may increase in the next period.
Apartment prices in Hanoi have yet to peak. (Illustration photo: Minh Duc).
" The current problem with apartment prices lies in input land costs that are expected to increase when new land pricing regulations are applied. In addition, construction costs also tend to increase, real demand for housing is high, while market supply is not likely to increase again in a short time ," said Mr. Quoc Anh.
Sharing the same view, Ms. Nguyen Hoai An - Director of CBRE Hanoi said that the apartment market in Hanoi is gradually relieving the "thirst" for housing supply shortage. Prices will not decrease but will no longer increase "hotly" like in the recent period, the increase is about 5-8% compared to 2024. Currently, apartment products for living and investment are quite diverse, the price level is also higher than previous years. Therefore, waiting for housing prices to decrease is not feasible.
According to the expert, real estate prices can only decrease when there is excess supply, slow demand growth affecting market liquidity, affecting selling prices, or there are major fluctuations in the macro economy, financial markets, economic growth...
In Vietnam, although the economy is currently growing steadily, interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates are controlled at reasonable levels, the housing supply is still in a state of shortage and imbalance between segments... Therefore, in the short term, it is very difficult for real estate prices to decrease.
CBRE's report also forecasts that in 2025, the supply of new apartments could reach over 30,000 units. Prices will not decrease but will no longer increase as rapidly as in the recent period, possibly only increasing by 5-8% compared to 2024. As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, Hanoi has had 4 consecutive quarters of rapid apartment price increase, reaching 26% year-on-year.
Similarly, Ms. Nguyen Thi Hong Van, Deputy Director, Valuation and Financial Advisory Department, Savills Hanoi also said that in the short term, housing prices, especially apartment prices, will continue to increase due to limited new supply in the market. Accordingly, supply has decreased by 34% quarter-on-quarter and 25% year-on-year with about 2,700 units in the second quarter of 2024. 98% of the supply comes from existing projects, with almost no new projects.
Mr. Nguyen Dung Minh, Deputy General Director of MIKGroup, also said that over the past 5 years, large-scale projects have created great added value. There are projects where the apartment price only fluctuated around 40 million VND/m2 4 years ago, but now it has reached 80-90 million VND/m2. Short-term issues such as limited supply are one of the factors affecting the selling price.
" From now until the end of the year and early next year, the average selling price of apartments in Hanoi will continue to increase. In the coming time, new laws will create opportunities for large investors to have new large-scale projects, bringing real value to society, " Mr. Minh commented.
Source
Comment (0)