Bold statements
At the recent 2023 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders (AGM) of Techcombank (TCB), Chairman Ho Hung Anh predicted that TCB's stock price could increase 5-10 times in the future.
According to billionaire Ho Hung Anh, the most difficult period is over. The market will show the true value of Techcombank.
According to Mr. Ho Hung Anh, 2022 is a difficult year for real estate and bonds, but Techcombank clearly demonstrates very good risk management in these two areas. He said that the upcoming results will be clearly reflected in business activities.
Despite the positive statements from Techcombank’s boss, TCB shares have fallen sharply recently. TCB shares have fallen in 7 of the last 10 sessions. The stock has fallen about 34% in the past year, from a peak of VND44,000/share to VND29,000/share on April 25.
At the 2022 Shareholders' Meeting, Mr. Nguyen Duc Tai shared the story of how MWG shares of Mobile World Investment Corporation had increased strongly since the company went public.
Mr. Tai said that when MWG first went public (in 2014), a girl asked if she had money and what to do with it. Mr. Tai's joke was, spend 1 billion VND to buy MWG shares and then put it away and forget about it, don't pay attention to it. "Surely when your child turns 18, he will have 100 billion to start a business," he said.
Since 2014, MWG’s stock price has increased by about 6-7 times (according to adjusted prices). This is quite an impressive increase. However, when the stock will increase 100 times is still an open question.
At the 2023 General Meeting of Shareholders of Coteccons Construction Joint Stock Company (CTD), the Chairman of this enterprise also recommended that shareholders, if "next time (CTD) shares fall in price, should buy more, not sell".
However, many people wonder how much the stock price should decrease to buy. In the last 2 quarters of 2022, CTD shares decreased sharply, from about 74,000 VND/share (adjusted price) in mid-September 2022 to 50,000 VND/share in October 2022, but then decreased further to 33,000 VND/share in mid-November. By March 2023, this stock was still below the threshold of 38,000 VND/share.
This year, Coteccons Construction approved a profit plan to increase 10 times compared to 2022 to VND 233 billion (on a low base).
At the 2017 General Meeting of Shareholders of Tan Tao Investment and Industry (ITA), Mr. Dang Thanh Tam appeared as chairman on behalf of his sister - Ms. Dang Thi Hoang Yen. Mr. Tam affirmed that ITA shares returned to par value that year. However, ITA shares are still trading below par value (under VND4,000/share).
At this year's shareholders' meeting, the Chairman of SSI Securities also said that the capitalization of this securities company will reach 10 billion USD if the stock market triples in size. This also means that this company will continue to expand its scale and its stock price will increase with the market.
A few years ago, investors were also abuzz with the announcements about the stock price of former FLC Group Chairman Trinh Van Quyet. At the end of 2019, FLC also made a commitment that after 6 months, this company would buy back Bamboo Airways shares at a price about twice as high.
Previously, Mr. Quyet had pledged that, "if in 2016, FLC shares are still below par value, I will mobilize all personal resources, even mortgage assets to buy back FLC shares". However, by March 2021, this stock was still below par value. Before being delisted in February 2023, FLC was only priced at VND 3,500/share.
Regarding ROS shares, in 2019, Mr. Quyet committed not to sell ROS shares that year. In early October 2019, the owner of FLC sold tens of millions of ROS shares, sharply reducing his ownership ratio at FLC Faros.
Similarly, in September 2021, Louis Capital owner Do Thanh Nhan shared on his personal page about the prospects for stock prices in the "Louis group". Some attractive commitments such as "from now until the end of the year, BII will not be 3X. Everyone can curse freely", "From now until the end of the year: BII will not be 3X. TGG will not be 4X-5X, APG will not be 2X, SMT will not be 3X, DDV will not be 3X, AGM will be down to 3X. Everyone can curse freely. Write it down as evidence".
After this information, the stocks of the "Louis" family increased sharply.
However, up to now, most of the stocks of the "Louis" and FLC families have been suspended from trading/delisted/stock prices have dropped to the price of a cup of iced tea...
There are many difficulties
Many business leaders do not pay much attention to stock price fluctuations and focus on production and business activities such as billionaire Tran Dinh Long (Chairman of Hoa Phat Group), Mr. Nguyen Duc Tai (MWG)...
At the 2023 General Meeting of Shareholders, Mobile World Chairman Nguyen Duc Tai said that the company will only buy treasury shares when cash flow conditions allow to increase shareholder ownership ratio, not for the purpose of "supporting" stock prices.
However, the statements about stock price prospects of some business leaders are often not consistent with what is happening in reality, making many investors skeptical.
After strong statements, money sometimes flows into these stocks. But then, investors withdraw if the outlook is not really good.
In the case of Techcombank, TCB shares had a very strong breakthrough time thanks to the rapid growth in scale of this organization, expectations of large CASA, corporate customer base... However, TCB also had long periods of disappointment, often going in the opposite direction compared to the general market developments.
Many investors are concerned about Techcombank's asset quality as the bank lends heavily on real estate and buys bonds.
Techcombank's outlook is also uncertain. However, in a move at the end of March 2023, Moody's downgraded Techcombank's rating from Ba2 to Ba3, amid the challenging context of the Vietnamese market.
Many banks and businesses have not paid dividends for many years, causing frustration for many shareholders. Meanwhile, many organizations still issue ESOP preferential shares to key employees in the business even though they do not pay dividends.
With MWG, many people are worried about the ability to effectively manage many retail chains in the context of rising interest rates, declining consumer demand following economic growth, increased competition and difficulties in logistics...
At the 2023 General Meeting of Shareholders, MWG leaders apologized to shareholders for not achieving the set goals in 2022.
Previously, at the AGM last year, Mr. Bolat Duisenov, Chairman of Cottecons (CTD), said "sorry" to shareholders when the stock price lost half its value. According to this leader, since becoming the head of Vietnam's leading construction company, he has often received messages of complaints from shareholders, some even threatening, every time the stock price drops sharply.
Many business leaders advise investors to look at the long term. The stock market is not for short-term traders. However, for many investors, the majority get impatient when holding stocks for a long time without increasing in price.
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