India lifted its ban on rice exports, while Indonesia is self-sufficient in food and only imports a small amount of rice, which has affected Vietnam's rice export prices. In fact, from its peak in mid-August 2023 at $700/ton, rice export prices have plummeted to their lowest in the past 3 years, down 43%.
According to the report sent by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development to the Ministry of Finance for the meeting of the Steering Committee on price management in the first quarter of 2025, rice products in 2025 are forecasted to be difficult and it is necessary to calculate appropriate production and business plans right from the beginning of the year.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said that the volume and value of rice exports in 2024 will reach 9 million tons and 5.67 billion USD, up 11.1% in volume and 21.2% in value compared to 2023. The average export price of rice in 2024 will reach 627 USD/ton, up 9.1% compared to 2023.
Estimated rice export volume and value in January 2025 reached 500,000 tons and 308 million USD, up 1% in volume but down 10.4% in value compared to the same period in 2024.
In 2024, the Philippines will be Vietnam's largest rice consumer market with a market share of 46.1%. Indonesia and Malaysia will be the next two largest markets with market shares of 13.2% and 7.5%, respectively. Compared to 2023, the value of rice exports in 2024 to the Philippines will increase by 48.9%, Indonesia by 16.6%, and Malaysia by 2.1 times. Among the 15 largest rice export markets, the value of rice exports will increase the most in the Malaysian market with a 2.1-fold increase; the market with the sharpest decrease in export value is China with a decrease of 8.4%.
Rice warehouse for export to the Philippines and China at Duong Vu Company Limited, Thu Thua District, Long An Province. Photo: Hong Dat
In 2024, the domestic rice market will be directly affected by the rice export situation. Prices of rice and non-rice tend to increase by about 1,000-2,000 VND/kg (normal rice in the North is about 17,000-20,000 VND/kg; in the South is about 12,500-13,500 VND/kg). Before, during and after Tet, rice prices fluctuate little.
The average export price of rice in 2024 is estimated at 626.5 USD/ton, up 9% compared to 2023 (in the first quarter, the price of 5% broken rice was high at the beginning of the year, increasing sharply due to high demand from import markets, averaging about 623 USD/ton; in the second quarter, the price peaked in April at about 642.7 USD/ton but decreased sharply in May and June, reaching an average of about 572 USD/ton; in the third quarter, the price recovered slightly due to increased demand in the middle of the year at about 605 USD/ton; in the fourth quarter, the average price was about 628 USD/ton, maintaining a stable high level and increasing positively compared to 2023.
Forecasting rice production and export in 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said that the rice production area is 7.0 million hectares, a decrease of 132,000 hectares compared to 2024; Expected yield is 61.6 quintals/ha, an increase of 0.6 quintals/ha; Estimated output is about 43.143 million tons, a decrease of about 357,000 tons compared to 2024.
In 2025, the export output of commercial rice will mainly be concentrated in the provinces of the Mekong Delta; other regions will mainly serve domestic consumption. Estimated production in 2025 in the Mekong Delta will reach 3.778 million hectares, with an average yield of 63.4 quintals/ha; estimated output will reach 23.965 million tons. Of which, domestic consumption for the Mekong Delta and Ho Chi Minh City (estimated total number of rice consumers from the Mekong Delta is 28 million people, including: the population of the Mekong Delta is about 18 million people and Ho Chi Minh City is about 10 million people) and use for seeds, animal feed... the total amount of rice consumed in the region is about 8.9 million tons.
Commercial rice for export is estimated at 15 million tons, equivalent to 7.54 million tons of commercial rice for export, of which, the amount of commercial rice for export in the first 6 months of the year is estimated at 4.5 million tons (January about 450,000 tons; February about 570,000 tons; March about 1.13 million tons; April about 1 million tons; May about 850,000 tons; June about 500,000 tons).
The amount of rice for export in the last 6 months of the year is estimated at 3.04 million tons (July about 550,000 tons; August about 900,000 tons; September about 900,000 tons; October about 300,000 tons; November about 250,000 tons; December about 140,000 tons).
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, when India lifted the ban on rice exports, while Indonesia (Vietnam's second largest rice export market) is self-sufficient in food and only imports a small amount of rice depending on supply, it will affect Vietnam's rice exports.
Market reality shows that after the Lunar New Year, Vietnam's rice export prices have dropped significantly, reaching the lowest level in the past 9 years. The volume of exported rice has increased but the value is decreasing sharply. In January 2025, Vietnam exported about 500,000 tons of rice, earning 308 million USD, up 1% in volume but down 10.4% in value compared to the same period last year.
According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), from its peak in mid-August 2023 at 700 USD/ton, our country's rice export price has plummeted to its lowest level in the past 3 years (down 43%).
Currently, the export price of 5% broken rice is only 399 USD/ton; 25% broken rice is 371 USD/ton; 100% broken rice is 313 USD/ton - this is the lowest price in the past 9 years. Meanwhile, the price of 5% broken rice from Thailand is currently at 433 USD/ton (34 USD/ton higher than Vietnamese rice); 25% broken rice is at 411 USD/ton (40 USD/ton higher than Vietnamese rice) and 100% broken rice is at 377 USD/ton (64 USD/ton higher than Vietnamese rice).
As for Indian rice prices, 5% broken rice exports are also currently at $413/ton; 25% broken rice is at $394/ton. Pakistani 5% broken rice exports are at $404/ton; 25% broken rice is at $377/ton and 100% broken rice is at $340/ton.
According to the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture, global rice exports in 2025 are expected to reach 56.3 million tons, an increase of 2.3 million tons compared to the previous forecast. Abundant supply will increase competitive pressure among exporting countries. Currently, major rice producing countries such as Thailand, India, and Pakistan are increasing supply to take advantage of export opportunities. Therefore, Vietnam must be more flexible in its strategy, focusing on improving product quality and optimizing its brand.
To maintain price and market stability, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development believes that, on the one hand, we should still focus on exporting to key markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia, etc., but we also need to expand exports to other potential markets, such as Europe, the US, the Middle East, West Asia and Africa; localities need to focus on producing high-quality, high-priced rice varieties that are favored by the market, such as fragrant rice, specialty rice, etc. At the same time, we need to focus resources on implementing the 1 million hectare high-quality rice project in the Mekong Delta.
Source: https://danviet.vn/an-do-go-bo-lenh-cam-xuat-khau-gao-indonesia-mua-nho-giot-bo-nnptnt-du-bao-gi-ve-thi-truong-gao-20250212094838452.htm
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