Many international organizations have raised their economic growth outlook for Vietnam in 2024 compared to previous forecasts, after the third quarter GDP was announced to reach 7.4%, higher than expected.
According to experts, the growth target of 6.8 - 7% in 2024 is a big challenge, especially in the context of factories, production facilities... of a series of enterprises in the Northern region being severely affected by storm Yagi, with economic damage estimated at VND81,500 billion (as of September 27), even up to nearly VND100,000 billion.
Vietnam creates "big surprise"
In a recently released report, HSBC's global research division said Vietnam's 7.4% growth in the third quarter was "much higher than expected".
After a "difficult" 2023 and Q1-2024, Vietnam has returned to being ASEAN's growth star, despite the impact of super typhoon Yagi.
Encouragingly, the trade recovery was initially concentrated in the electronics sector but is now showing signs of spreading, with textile and footwear exports, for example, up 16.7% year-on-year..., according to a HSBC report.
With 'positive surprise' in Q3, HSBC raises growth forecast GDP 2024 to 7% from the previous forecast of 6.5%.
In its recently released updated report on Vietnam, Standard Chartered Bank also raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024 to 6.8%, compared to the previous forecast of 6%.
According to experts from this foreign bank, Vietnam's economic growth momentum is relatively strong, with improvements in many areas such as import and export, retail, real estate, tourism, manufacturing...
"Although short-term pressures remain, we believe that the performance of the Vietnamese economy is better than market expectations," said Tim Leelahaphan, economist for Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered.
According to this expert, the Government's push for economic growth could help maintain low interest rates in the coming time and the Fed's moves will also be an important factor influencing the State Bank of Vietnam's monetary policy decisions.
Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB) also raised its full-year growth forecast for Vietnam by 0.5 percentage points to 6.4%. Meanwhile, the ADB forecasts growth at 6% and the World Bank (WB) expects this rate to be 6.1%...
Big pressure on 7% target
Talking to Tuoi Tre, Mr. Tran Ngoc Bau, founder and general director of WiGroup Joint Stock Company - the supplier economic data The largest in Vietnam, said that when the third quarter GDP figures were announced, most international organizations were surprised because the announced figures were much higher than their forecasts, especially after the northern provinces were severely affected by storm Yagi.
According to statistics, storm Yagi - which made landfall in Vietnam in early September - affected 26 northern provinces and cities and Thanh Hoa, an area that accounts for over 41% of the country's GDP and 40% of its population.
As of September 27, the estimated damage was about VND81,500 billion, but according to WiGroup's estimate, the damage could be up to nearly VND100,000 billion, equivalent to 1% of Vietnam's nominal GDP in 2023.
Therefore, according to Mr. Bau, to reach the annual target of 7%, the fourth quarter will be under considerable pressure. The estimated level achieved in the fourth quarter must be above 7.1%. Meanwhile, the storm has caused damage to factories, production facilities, etc., so the economic impact will continue into the fourth quarter.
Mr. Le Duy Binh, economic expert and director of Economica Vietnam, said that the most important thing after Typhoon Yagi is to restore production and business activities of enterprises in the northern provinces, the area with many large industrial zones in the country. "Support for production and business recovery needs to be promoted through the banking, insurance, and tax systems...", Mr. Binh said.
However, speaking to Tuoi Tre, Mr. Hong Sun, Chairman of the Korean Business Association in Vietnam (KOCHAM), said that up to this point, most businesses have resumed operations and quickly started production to deliver goods in time for the peak season at the end of the year.
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