Ukraine's counterattack may have failed, Russia has the upper hand

Ukrainian soldiers walk near fortifications, including the "dragon's teeth" line and barbed wire, in a field near the Kupiansk front line (Photo: Reuters).

In an interview with the British newspaper Express published on January 13, former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki admitted that Ukraine's counterattack in 2023 was "unsuccessful" and that Russia had the upper hand strategically.

Mr Morawiecki said the conflict in Ukraine was "not going in the right direction", expressing his "great concern" with a situation where Moscow appeared to have defeated Kiev.

Russia has “huge resources,” he explained, noting that Moscow's military production capabilities significantly exceed those of the European Union (EU).

"They have strategic depth and they have patience in international politics ," the former Polish prime minister said, dismissing the notion that Russia's elections in March would be unlikely to change the balance of power in Moscow.

However, Mr Morawiecki also argued that Ukraine's failure presented an opportunity for NATO because it had brought Finland and Sweden into the alliance and was "awakening" countries such as Denmark and Romania, which he said were the most vocal in calling attention to the perceived threat posed by Russia.

“Not only the security of NATO's eastern flank, but also the security of Britain, the security of Germany, Denmark and Scandinavia, they understand that very well,” Mr. Morawiecki stressed.

Ukraine launched a counter-offensive in early June last year, but failed to make any significant advances despite being reinforced with large amounts of Western equipment.

Months after the attack, even top Ukrainian officials, including Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, began to admit they had failed to achieve their goals.

In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin estimated the loss ratio at 8 to 1 in Moscow's favor, and in early December, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed that Kiev had lost more than 125,000 soldiers since the beginning of the summer.

However, analysts say Ukraine may be regrouping its forces with the aim of launching a new counter-offensive in 2024, after attacks since June last year failed to penetrate all layers of Russian defense.

Nico Lange, a former German defense official who is now a senior fellow at the Munich Security Conference, said that despite growing pessimism in the West about Ukraine's progress on the battlefield, Kiev still has a sizable amount of military equipment from the West and several new shipments of weapons are expected to arrive in the near future.

German experts believe that Ukraine still has big plans, as shown by the "ambitious" list of weapons that Kiev requested the US to provide, including attack helicopters, advanced fighter jets, long-range missile systems, Abrams tanks and other equipment.

Bild magazine (Germany) quoted sources saying that Ukraine is drawing up a "new battle plan". The source said that Ukraine's main goal in this plan is to focus on causing maximum damage to Moscow.

However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has voiced concern about diminishing Western support for Kiev's war, after unprecedented amounts of foreign aid from Britain, the US and the EU failed to make a significant impact on Russia.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/ukraine-co-the-da-phan-cong-that-bai-nga-gianh-the-thuong-phong-20240114080623199.htm