On the afternoon of October 12, the Vietnam Real Estate Association (VNREA) and the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers (VARS) jointly organized the event to announce the Report "Assessment of the recovery process of Vietnam's real estate market in the third quarter of 2023 and Forecast of the market situation in the fourth quarter of 2023".
Real estate transactions are bustling again
In her opening speech, Ms. Pham Thi Mien - Deputy Head of Market Research and Real Estate Investment Promotion Consulting Department, VARS, cited VARS's research data, saying that liquidity in the real estate market is gradually improving, especially compared to the difficult period at the end of last year and the first months of this year.
The market has begun to record more bright spots. These are localities with developed economies, attention and focus on promoting investment in infrastructure and transportation, with many sources of supply suitable to demand such as Hanoi, Hai Phong, Lao Cai, Da Nang, Ho Chi Minh City, etc.
Ms. Mien said that the above results were thanks to the efforts, connections, and close coordination between state management agencies and enterprises. In particular, nearly 20 related sub-law documents and actions were issued by the Government continuously and intensively, with content increasingly closer to the actual needs of the market and enterprises.
"Although the market is not strong enough to "overcome the slope", it has somewhat escaped the risk of "losing its brakes", Ms. Mien said.
Real estate has passed the most difficult period, transactions are gradually recovering in quantity and quality.
Data in the report shows that the number of transactions in the entire market has increased over time with more products suitable to people's needs being introduced to the market. Accordingly, in the third quarter of 2023, the market recorded nearly 6,000 transactions, 1.5 times higher than the second quarter and more than twice that of the first quarter of 2023.
However, compared to the previous period, the total number of transactions in the first 9 months of 2023 was only about 50% compared to the same period last year and about 20% compared to the land fever period. The reason is that the market still lacks supply of social housing and affordable housing segments, due to the continuous increase in housing prices and no sign of stopping.
Forecasting the future, VARS's report clearly shows that the economic recovery along with positive forecasts of economic growth will certainly lead to increased demand for real estate in all segments, from apartments to offices for rent, factories, retail real estate... Especially in the situation of tight supply due to many reasons, the increase in real estate prices in the coming time is something that can be considered.
Furthermore, Ms. Mien also mentioned that the State Bank has lowered the operating interest rate 4 times in a row since March 2023. Bank loan interest rates have been adjusted down significantly, ranging from 6.7% to 10%, approaching the level of early 2022, down from 0.4% to 3.5% compared to the end of the second quarter of 2023. This is a favorable interest rate for home buyers. Buying a house to live in during this period will take full advantage of credit and price levels.
Need more mechanisms for investors to build social housing
Sharing at the event, Mr. Le Dinh Chung - Member of the VARS Real Estate Research Working Group, General Director of SGO Homes said that the real estate market in big cities has shown signs of bottoming out, focusing on the apartment and housing segment priced under 10 billion VND in the central core area.
For the land segment, there has not been a positive signal but there have been signs of breaking the bottom in the auction land type, in the area around Hanoi, the price is around 2 billion VND, with an absorption rate of 70% - 80% with the auction price about 5% higher than the starting price, can be transferred immediately with a difference of 30-50 million VND/plot.
Only the resort tourism segment is still gloomy, the transaction volume remains stagnant due to investor sentiment in the market.
Mr. Le Dinh Chung - General Director of SGO Homes spoke at the event.
Expressing his views on the supply of social housing, Mr. Nguyen Hoang Nam - Member of the VARS Real Estate Research and Development Working Group, General Director of G-Home JSC emphasized that the State's policy of building 1 million social housing units is highly humane.
However, in reality, Mr. Nam said that it is necessary to recognize that 1 million social housing units are not enough for the current market. Even if the above project is implemented to the maximum, people still have a lot of demand for ownership.
Meanwhile, the process of implementing, constructing and opening for sale social housing projects still has many problems, from legal mechanisms to regulations and purchase conditions as well as cases eligible for policies.
In particular, Mr. Nam pointed out the current situation where people find it very difficult to access social housing because many regulations are too tight, classifying rich and poor people, making social housing out of reach for many classes of people.
On the investor side, implementing social housing construction is also a difficult problem due to difficulties in many aspects from mechanisms, policies to the financial capacity of enterprises. According to Mr. Nam, building social housing is "both difficult and risky".
In the market, there is even a situation of "unsold" social housing because the construction area is in an unfavorable location, not meeting the living needs of residents. Many investors spend time and money to build but are "tortured" by administrative procedures for decades. After completion and opening for sale, if there is a loss, they have to bear it themselves, and if the profit is over 10%, they are forced to return it to the state - Mr. Nam thinks that this is unreasonable.
Accordingly, the General Director of G-Home JSC suggested that housing policies should target all classes in society. Regulations on beneficiaries of social housing policies should be changed to be more appropriate. Social housing is not for sale to the rich, but should target those with incomes that are subject to tax, have savings, but cannot access commercial housing currently priced at a high threshold.
At the same time, mechanisms and policies for investors should be built in a more open and "open" direction, and should be commended, encouraged, and created conditions for social housing construction enterprises to have more opportunities to continue construction.
In conclusion, Mr. Tran Van Binh - Vice Chairman and General Secretary of VARS said that in the coming time, along with legal and capital bottlenecks, the trust of customers and investors is the final "barrier" that needs to be resolved so that the real estate market can truly return to normal.
The real estate market in the fourth quarter of 2023 is expected to be a stepping stone for a transformation in 2024. The overall picture of the market will certainly have many new bright spots. Especially in areas with much room for development, with synchronous and modern planning, infrastructure that is interested in and focused on investment, and low price levels .
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