(PLVN) - To meet the growth target of at least 8% in 2025 and reach double digits in the following years, the scale of power sources must increase 2.5 - 3 times the current power capacity.
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| Consultation meeting of the Council for Appraisal of the Project to Adjust the Power Plan VIII. (Photo: Cong Thuong Newspaper) |
(PLVN) - To meet the growth target of at least 8% in 2025 and reach double digits in the following years, the scale of power sources must increase 2.5 - 3 times the current power capacity.
Electricity demand increases sharply according to growth target
At the recent consultation conference of the Council for Appraisal of the Project to Adjust the Power Plan VIII (hereinafter referred to as the Council), Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien, who is also Vice Chairman of the Council, said that due to the goal of achieving economic growth of at least 8% by 2025 and striving for double-digit growth in the following years, by 2030, Vietnam must complete the goal of developing a power source scale 2.5 - 3 times larger than the current power capacity, moving towards a scale 5 - 7 times larger by 2050.
To achieve these goals, energy growth must be synchronized with economic scale, while meeting the international commitment to carbon neutrality by 2050. This requires a rapid adjustment of the Power Development Plan (PDP) VIII, although it was only approved in 2023 - to match strong growth demand and the clean energy transition trend.
Mr. Nguyen Anh Tuan - Vice President and General Secretary of the Vietnam Energy Association affirmed that adjusting the electricity demand forecast is necessary, in line with the reality and development orientation of the Party and State. According to Mr. Tuan, with the expected GDP growth rate of 8% in 2025 and 10% in the period of 2026 - 2030, electricity demand will increase.
However, Mr. Nguyen Anh Tuan emphasized that it is necessary to calculate regional backup plans to avoid local power shortages, instead of nationwide backup. For the period 2031 - 2035, reducing the growth rate of electricity demand is reasonable, in line with the trend of shifting to a service economy and reducing energy-consuming industries. In addition, it is necessary to carefully assess the electricity demand for green transportation, especially the North-South high-speed railway and the Metro system.
Mr. Nguyen Anh Tuan also said that the energy development strategy needs to be balanced between regions. While the North lacks electricity, the Central region has a surplus. "We should take advantage of the solar power potential in the North. Germany has 96,000 MW of solar power with only 900 hours of sunshine per year, while the North of Vietnam has up to 1,200 hours of sunshine" - Mr. Tuan cited and recommended that there should be a reasonable development policy and equal investment allocation between regions to optimize resources and reduce capital pressure.
Need to study economic development in Central region
Mr. Ngo Tuan Kiet - former Director of the Institute of Energy Science assessed that currently, the North and the South are still the two main economic centers, while the Central region - although possessing a lot of renewable energy potential - has not been properly exploited. Mr. Kiet proposed studying a scenario for economic development in the Central region to reduce the pressure on power transmission to the North and the South. This not only helps to minimize the risk of natural disasters to the transmission system but also makes the most of available energy sources on the spot.
This opinion was agreed by Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors Nguyen Hong Dien when he suggested: “It is possible to form data centers in the Central region or form industrial complexes using a lot of clean energy in this region, then the Central region will develop. When the Central region's economy develops, we will also exploit the potential and natural advantages of the Central region to develop renewable energy”.
At the consultation, most experts said that it is necessary to develop a scenario for electricity growth much higher than the VIII Power Plan. Minister Nguyen Hong Dien also said that it is necessary to change the growth forecast. Accordingly, the basic scenario suggests adjusting from 45 - 50% compared to the VIII Power Plan. "Because we set a target of achieving 8% GDP growth in 2025, from 2026 - 2030, increasing by 10% each year. Thus, the basic scenario must be 45 - 50%, the high scenario from 60 - 65% compared to the present and the extreme scenario is 70 - 75%" - Minister Dien said.
Regarding nuclear power, experts all believe that completing the construction of the first plant by 2031 is a big challenge, requiring careful preparation of technology and human resources, but it will become a reality if there is determination and appropriate mechanisms. In fact, Mr. Kiet believes that, with experience from previous feasibility studies, Vietnam can shorten the implementation time, aiming to complete the first two nuclear power plants within 5-6 years. Minister Nguyen Hong Dien added that Vietnam will develop centralized nuclear power and small-scale nuclear power nationwide. Therefore, in this planning, it is proposed that by 2030, it is not only Ninh Thuan but at least 3 out of 8 identified locations can build nuclear power plants.
Source: https://baophapluat.vn/phai-xay-dung-kich-ban-tang-truong-dien-cao-hon-50-so-voi-quy-hoach-dien-viii-post540001.html
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