Before leaving office, Joe Biden imposed the final sanctions on Russia, specifically targeting the shipping and oil industries. Will these sanctions cause Russia's oil production to drop as sharply as Washington expected?
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| The latest sanctions from the world's largest economy will only be a temporary obstacle to Russia's oil exports. (Source: DW) |
A number of oil tankers, traders, as well as two major Russian operators, Gazprom Neft PJSC and Surgutneftegas PJSC, have been blacklisted by the US.
Meanwhile, major Russian insurance companies were also targeted and oil and gas service providers from the world's largest economy were ordered to withdraw from the market.
According to Reuters (UK), energy industry traders said that sanctions from the US have left Russia with no choice but to start cutting oil production because it does not have enough sanctions-exempt tankers to transport crude abroad.
In addition, Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries are forcing major Russian energy companies to cut production.
According to Oil Price , in January 2025, Moscow's crude oil volume from major ports fell 17% compared to the same period last year. Industry traders estimate that Russia's crude oil production may have to fall below 9 million barrels per day.
However, things are not that simple.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released a report stating that the latest sanctions from the world's largest economy will only be a temporary obstacle to Russia's oil exports.
The agency said that Russian oil exporters have found new ways to circumvent sanctions and continue shipping oil abroad.
Not only that, contrary to the data collected by Oil Price , the IEA also estimated that Russia's oil production in January 2025 was 100,000 barrels/day higher, reaching a total of 9.2 million barrels/day.
“More importantly, Russia’s revenues from crude and fuel exports also increase by January 2025,” the IEA stressed.
The agency calculated that higher oil prices due to sanctions imposed by the Biden administration had increased Russia’s oil and fuel revenues by $900 million, evidence that US sanctions were backfiring.
In that context, new President Donald Trump immediately released his latest "blockbuster", which was discussing the prospect of peace in Ukraine.
Experts predict that if a peace deal is signed, the US government could lift sanctions on Russia's energy sector, which would be in line with Mr. Trump's campaign promise to lower energy prices.
Of course, a peace deal is not a certainty and for now, the US administration has shown no signs of easing sanctions pressure on Russia.
According to Oil Price , people are waiting for the Russia-Ukraine military campaign to end and oil prices to fall, at least temporarily.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/lenh-trung-phat-khac-nghiet-cua-my-voi-dau-nga-phan-tac-dung-ong-trump-lien-tung-bom-tan-304670.html
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