The Move Forward Party could bring a breath of fresh air to Thai politics, opening up an opportunity for the country to step out of the vortex of turmoil, according to experts.
Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of the Move Forward Party, announced on May 18 that he had formed an eight-party coalition to push ahead with plans to form a new government and become Thailand's next prime minister, pledging to end the military's influence in the country's politics for many years.
In addition to the two leading parties after the recent general election, Move Forward and Pheu Thai, Mr. Pita's alliance is expected to include six smaller parties, including Prachachart, Thai Sang Thai, Seri Ruam Thai, Fair, Palang Sangkhom Mai and Pheu Thai Ruam Phalang. According to experts, this is the beginning of the negotiation process between the parties towards the scenario of forming a coalition with a majority in parliament and forming a new government.
"Although each side has its own stance and the negotiation process is not easy, Thai political parties are facing a great opportunity to find solutions to some key issues that have long divided society," political scientist Dr. Andrew Wells-Dang, senior expert on Southeast Asia at the US Institute of Peace, told VnExpress .
The eight-party coalition will give Mr. Pita a total of 313 votes in the July meeting of the two houses of parliament to elect a new prime minister, which will be held in July with the participation of 500 elected members of the lower house and 250 senators appointed by the military. The new Thai prime minister must have at least 376 votes in both houses, meaning Mr. Pita will need to convince at least 63 more lawmakers to vote for him.
In theory, the Move Forward party would need to find more support from the pro-military group in the Senate and be willing to put aside the goal of reforming the lese majeste law, which was one of the core contents of their election campaign.
The lese majeste law is considered one of the most controversial issues in Thailand ahead of the election. Article 112 of the Thai Penal Code stipulates a prison term of 3-15 years for the crime of lèse majeste, which is defined as "defaming, insulting or threatening the king, queen, crown prince or crown princess".
Early signs suggest that Pita’s coalition and the military have a chance to find common ground to avoid a deadlock on the day of the prime minister’s election, experts say. Sources familiar with the matter said a proposal to reform the lese majeste law, which the military strongly opposes, was dropped from the eight-party coalition led by Move Forward.
Wells-Dang said that after taking power in a 2014 coup, the Thai military drafted the 2017 constitution to ensure it could maintain its influence even if it lost majority support in the general election.
"The military will probably choose to abide by the election results this time and negotiate a power-sharing deal with the new government, but still implicitly warns of direct intervention in the future if it feels necessary," he predicted.
Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat (in white) leads the victory parade on May 15 in front of Bangkok City Hall. Photo: AFP
Power-sharing compromises are already taking shape. Move Forward’s leader said last week that eight parties in his coalition had agreed to set up working groups to help with the transition from the military-backed government of nearly a decade to a new form of government.
Although Mr. Pita asserted that the parties have not yet entered the negotiation stage for the division of cabinet seats, the Thai Inquirer newspaper revealed over the weekend that Move Forward had reached an agreement to take control of four priority reform ministries: Defense, Interior, Finance and Education. Meanwhile, the Pheu Thai Party will control the policy-making body in five key areas: energy, trade, transport, industry and agriculture.
Hunter Marston, a Southeast Asia expert at the Coral Bell School of Pacific Affairs at the Australian National University (ANU), assessed that the rise of the Move Forward Party and the governing coalition model could prevent a repeat of the political instability scenario in Thailand in the near future.
The Thai military carried out a coup to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in 2006. In 2014, the then Thai army commander, General Prayuth Chan-ocha, also led a further coup to overthrow Thaksin's sister, Yingluck Shinawatra.
Thailand then witnessed many protests against the coup and political reform, leading to many upheavals and instability in the country.
Marston noted that the key difference in this general election was that the Pheu Thai Party did not win an overwhelming victory. This has blurred the conflicts between the yellow shirts and the red shirts, between the countryside and the cities, and between the military and the Shinawatra clan that have repeatedly pushed Thailand into a state of instability over the past two decades.
"Move Forward is a breath of fresh air in Thai politics, bringing in a leader who does not represent either of the two previous factions. The ruling coalition could be more successful and stable if they find a way to share power properly and the intervention from the military is no longer necessary," Marston commented.
The key to determining the future of Thai politics will be the cooperation between Move Forward, Pheu Thai and the military in planning the political transition, according to Marston. The winning coalition needs to convince the military that the transition to a new government will not threaten the military or the Thai monarchy.
Leaders of eight Thai parties met in Bangkok on May 17 to discuss forming a ruling coalition. Photo: Bangkok Post
Mr Pita has been more cautious in his messaging to the Senate, the military and its allies. Reforming the lese majeste law is no longer seen as a top priority, and he is willing to accept that the issue will be discussed later in parliament.
Move Forward now stops short of calling for a complete repeal of the lese majeste law, instead making it clear that the law should only be invoked when the Thai royal family makes a complaint, to avoid abuse.
Pita’s party has also changed its stance on the Senate, from saying it did not need 250 senatorial votes to calling for negotiations. Move Forward Secretary General Chaithawat Tulathon said last week that he was ready to talk to senators to address concerns, hoping they would respect the will of voters and avoid a deadlock in Thai politics.
Marston agreed that the military could accept negotiations and retreat this time, unlike what happened after the 2019 election, when Pheu Thai won the most votes in the general election but failed to form a government. Prime Minister Prayuth’s pro-military party then continued to hold power.
Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, leader of the Future Forward Party, the predecessor of the Move Forward Party, ran into legal trouble with the Election Commission (EC) that year. The Constitutional Court of Thailand suspended Thanathorn as an MP ahead of the prime minister election, then ruled to dissolve Future Forward early the following year for alleged election violations.
Following this year's election, the EU is also considering a complaint against Mr Pita, alleging he owned 42,000 shares in media company iTV but failed to report this to the National Anti-Corruption Commission before taking office as an MP in 2019.
But observers say that even if the EC tries to prevent Mr. Pita from being elected prime minister this time, the Move Forward and Pheu Thai parties will still be able to protect their majority in the House of Representatives, meaning they control the government's budget.
Marston predicts that the military is sober enough to realize that, with the huge support the people have for reformist parties, they will cause political chaos if they let the 2019 scenario repeat itself or intervene more forcefully. Thailand needs a stable environment for economic recovery, which will directly affect the defense budget.
"The price to pay if they intervene or do not accept the election results is too high. The military's withdrawal from politics will generally increase the stability of Thailand's political environment. This prospect can convince the neutral part of the military leadership," expert Marston commented on Thailand's future after the election.
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