When Russia launched attacks on Ukraine along the Danube River bordering Romania, many feared that the area could become a battleground between NATO and Moscow.
The Romanian army has been rushing to build a series of bomb shelters near the border with Ukraine this past week, after discovering debris believed to be from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) within its territory. The shelters are constructed of prefabricated concrete, covered with sandbags to protect civilians from UAVs and missiles.
Russia has recently increased its use of UAVs and cruise missiles to attack Ukrainian food warehouses and port infrastructure, following its withdrawal from the Black Sea grain agreement. To prevent Ukraine from exporting grain via river to neighboring countries, Russian UAVs have been continuously flying along the Danube River between Ukraine's Odessa province and Romania to attack targets. This has raised concerns in Romania, a NATO member state, as UAV debris continues to fall.
Romania is building bomb shelters along its border with Ukraine. Video : EuroNews
Iulian, a Romanian sheep herder on the banks of the Danube River, said he saw drones flying along the river to attack Ukrainian territory, but they were intercepted by Kyiv's air defenses. "I saw them shot down right there, and then smoke and fire rose," he recounted.
The Danube, a river several hundred meters wide flowing along the Ukraine-Romania border before emptying into the Black Sea, is the barrier that prevents an attack on Ukraine from becoming an attack on the entire NATO alliance. If Russian drones were to fly off target and into Romanian territory, a large-scale conflict could erupt, as NATO has a responsibility to defend its allies under the alliance's mutual defense clause.
Romanian Defense Minister Angel Tilvar said on September 6 that the object that fell on Romanian territory near Ukraine could be debris from a Russian drone. The debris landed near Plauru, a Romanian village on the other side of the Danube River, opposite the Ukrainian port of Izmail.
Mr. Tilvar said the debris would be analyzed to confirm its origin, adding that the area where the debris was found was not under evacuation order because there were no signs that it posed a threat.
On September 13, the Romanian Ministry of Defence announced the discovery of debris believed to be from a UAV scattered in the Nufaru and Victoria districts of the eastern city of Tulcea, about 14 km from the Ukrainian border.
Location of the Danube River and the Black Sea region. Graphic: FT
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said this was the latest sign that Moscow was threatening "the security of neighboring countries, including NATO members."
Upstream on the Danube River, increased traffic on the chain of river ports, including Izmail, has transformed this once quiet area into a strategically important location.
Russia has intensified its attacks in the region in an effort to prevent Ukraine from using the Danube River as an alternative grain transport route while the Black Sea is being blockaded. Moscow withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July, an agreement that allowed grain from Ukraine to be transported by sea, a key export route to world markets.
Moscow also withdrew all related guarantees regarding maritime safety, warning that all ships heading to Ukrainian ports bordering the Black Sea could be considered military cargo carriers. Last month, Russian warships fired warning shots at a commercial vessel approaching a Black Sea port.
At the Romanian port of Constanta, shipping companies transport grain from Ukraine via the Danube River and canals, as well as by truck and train, before loading it onto ships bound for the Bosphorus Strait and the Mediterranean Sea.
Smoke and flames rise over the Danube River during the Russian attack on September 4th. Photo: Facebook/Oleg Nikolenko
But the recent explosion caused by a mine, suspected to be Russian and having drifted ashore near Constanta, highlights the risks faced by areas near conflict zones.
"We are very concerned. Russia continues to create new risks, the potential for escalation and miscalculation," Tilvar said.
Romania has deployed 11 warships, 2 helicopters, 6 maritime surveillance UAVs, and 3 teams of divers specializing in explosives disposal to counter the threat from Russian mines and UAVs. NATO reconnaissance aircraft are also continuously patrolling the Romanian border region.
"We are preparing for any unexpected situation that may arise," Tilvar said, adding that "no country bordering Ukraine can rule out the possibility of being shot by mistake."
As one of the few countries that consistently meets NATO's annual defense budget target of 2% of GDP, Romania this year increased its defense budget to $7.5 billion, representing approximately 2.5% of GDP, amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
This country is preparing to open an F-16 pilot training center for Ukraine, while also purchasing additional US-made aircraft, tanks, howitzers, and UAVs to equip Ukrainian forces.
Previously, this defense budget was excessive for Romania. However, given the ongoing conflict near the border, the amount is reasonable, according to Sandu-Valentin Mateiu, a retired Romanian intelligence officer. "We are on the front lines," he said.
Mateiu added that although Romania does not share a land border with Russia, "our exclusive economic zone borders the Crimean Peninsula," which Russia annexed in 2014 and uses as a springboard for the war in Ukraine. Many Russian missiles and UAVs are deployed from this peninsula.
According to Mateiu, Russia appears to be exploring the gray areas of the international maritime agreement by repeatedly launching airstrikes that disrupt Ukraine's grain export routes. However, he believes Russia will avoid "war with NATO."
Mateiu also noted that while Ukraine might want more NATO intervention in the conflict, Romania, which has suffered significant damage from suspected drone crashes, has been cautious. "As long as the Russians don't pose a real threat to life or property on our territory, Bucharest will not seek to escalate tensions, even diplomatically," he said.
However, Mateiu affirmed, "When we see a real threat, Romania will act quickly to respond decisively."
Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, who took office in May, pledged unconditional support for Ukraine and said he would double the amount of Ukrainian grain transiting through Romania, primarily at the port of Constanta. However, Romania's crop yield this year is likely to exceed last year's, and the port of Constanta is also used to export grain to partners such as Hungary and Serbia, raising concerns about the feasibility of Prime Minister Ciolacu's commitment.
Viorel Panait, owner of Comvex, the largest grain warehouse operator in Constanta, says the entire river port logistics network needs to be modernized.
"In July, the city processed nearly 70% of the total amount of grain shipped from Ukraine. That required us to be creative," he said.
Panait has spent over $4 billion to increase its capacity and worked with the government on digital customs procedures to reduce wait times from 36 hours to 30 minutes.
Ahead of next year's elections, Prime Minister Ciolacu's government also needs to take into account the grievances of Romanian farmers, who are struggling to compete with cheap Ukrainian grain, as well as those weary of the war, according to Costin Ciobanu, a researcher at University College London.
"Farmers are an important voting group for Mr. Ciolacu," Mr. Ciobanu said.
Location of residence in the Danube and Black Sea region. Graphic: FT
Romania is one of the European Union (EU) countries that has imposed a ban on grain imports from Ukraine, although it has agreed to facilitate the transit of Ukrainian grain through its territory.
Ahead of the 2024 local, parliamentary, and presidential elections, Romania's nationalist AUR party has achieved some successes by promoting an anti-Ukraine message, according to Ciobanu.
While a majority of Romanians are skeptical about the scenario of a Russian attack on their country, a recent poll showed that half of those surveyed believe the high prices of food and fuel are due to the conflict in Ukraine.
On Costinesti beach, about 30 km south of Constanta, fisherman and restaurant owner Matei Datcu says he fears not mines washing ashore as much as the worsening economic situation.
"You can see the large mine and avoid it. But next year, the tax will increase. The pressure will be felt more acutely than any mine that washes ashore," he said.
Thanh Tam (According to FT )
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