Deposit interest rate "rock bottom" 6%/year
Since the end of 2022, the trend of decreasing interest rates has become increasingly clear. From the general level of 9%/year for a 12-month term, this level is currently only 6%.
Specifically, currently, the Big4 group (including state-owned banks: Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam - Vietcombank, Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade of Vietnam - VietinBank, Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam - BIDV and Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development - Agribank) together have the lowest interest rates in the market.
In this group, the highest rate is only 5.5%/year applied for terms from 12 months to 36 months. For terms of 6 months and 9 months, the interest rate is 4.5%/year. The rate of 3.5%/year is applied for some terms under 6 months.
Deposit interest rates continued to fall sharply and set a new level, but the cash flow into stocks suddenly "slowed down" and still "flowed strongly" into banks. Illustrative photo
At joint stock commercial banks, the average long-term interest rate is 6%/year. Very few units list interest rates above 7%/year. Some of these units include DongA Bank (7%/year).
Not stopping there, interest rates are forecast to continue to decrease.
That makes many people worry that money will "flow" from low-profit channels (bank deposits) to riskier investment channels such as stocks, real estate, gold, virtual currency, etc.
Money is still in the bank
After the interest rates continuously decreased and reached new lows, the trend of cash flow appeared quite clearly. Real estate is not the channel of choice for investors when the land prices are said to be still high and have much room to decrease further. Therefore, real estate investors are not in a hurry to "put down money" to buy houses.
Ms. Duong Thanh Binh, an investor, shared about her money circulation: “When interest rates decreased, I withdrew some money from my savings account to find a new investment place. In my opinion, the real estate market will continue to decline as investors still face many difficulties. In addition, the cash flow from banks and bonds for real estate, although loosened, is still not really bright. Therefore, the earliest time to buy a house is the end of 2024, the latest time is 2025.”
As for gold, Ms. Binh analyzed that about 10 years ago, gold was always in her investment portfolio. However, in recent years, because the difference between SJC gold price and world gold price is too high, the risk for buyers is very high. Therefore, she does not choose gold.
And recently, Ms. Thanh Binh has chosen stocks as a shelter for her cash flow. In fact, she has earned a profit of 24% in the past half year thanks to taking profit from stocks.
Many people share the same opinion with Ms. Thanh Binh when the number of new securities accounts is continuously opened and sets a new record.
This data shows that the flow of money into the banking system is under pressure. However, the figures show that money is still flowing into the banks.
According to the latest report of the General Statistics Office, as of September 20, 2023, total means of payment increased by 4.75% compared to the end of 2022. Capital mobilization of credit institutions increased by 5.8%, while credit growth of the economy only reached 5.73%.
This is not the first time that the Capital Mobilization index has grown positively. Previously, data from the State Bank showed that the total deposit mobilization of the credit institution system by the end of June 2023 increased by 4.6% compared to the beginning of the year.
Thus, from July until now, capital mobilization of the banking system has continued to grow positively, despite deposit interest rates falling to record lows.
Money "brakes" on stocks
The massive cash flow into the stock market has created billion-dollar trading sessions, and in some sessions, the trading value on Hose alone exceeded 30,000 billion VND. This is a record high for the Vietnamese stock market.
However, in the last days of September 2023, the cash flow suddenly "slowed down" on stocks. The transaction value tended to decrease dramatically.
Specifically, in the session of September 28, the trading volume (including matching orders and agreements) was only 525 million shares, equivalent to VND 13,804 billion. Previously, the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange regularly had a trading volume of over 1 billion shares.
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