The encouraging and proud economic growth results in 2024 contribute to creating momentum, strength, position, confidence and hope for Vietnam to achieve greater achievements in 2025 and the 2026-2030 period.
According to Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP of the Government on key tasks and solutions to implement the socio-economic development plan and state budget estimates for 2025, the Government sets the target of national GDP growth in 2025 at least 8% and strives for double digits (higher than the target set by the National Assembly of 6.5-7%, striving for 7-7.5%).
Belief in the ability to accelerate
This is a very strong determination of the Government to successfully implement the goals and tasks of the socio-economic development plan for the entire five-year period of 2021-2025. According to many economic experts, the Government's determination is completely justified.
First of all, we must mention the foundation from the achievements of socio-economic development in 2024. In the context of many difficulties and challenges in the world, our country's economy has clearly recovered, each month is better than the previous month, each quarter is higher than the previous quarter, with GDP reaching 7.09%, among the highest growth countries in the region and the world.
The investment and business environment continued to improve, contributing to strengthening the confidence of people, businesses and investors. FDI attraction for the whole year reached nearly 38.23 billion USD, with an estimated implementation of 25.35 billion USD, up 9.4%, the highest ever. Foreign affairs and international integration, especially high-level foreign affairs, were promoted and achieved many important results, ensuring a peaceful, stable, cooperative and developing environment, continuing to consolidate and enhance Vietnam's position and prestige in the international arena.
The above results are evidence of our country's outstanding efforts, of special significance, contributing to creating momentum, strength, position, confidence and hope for the economy to achieve higher results in 2025 and the 2026-2030 period.
Second, in the context of the world economy in 2025 being forecast to grow only slightly or stably at 3.2 - 3.3%, prestigious organizations such as the World Bank (WB), Asian Development Bank (ADB), Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) ... all forecast Vietnam's growth at 6.1-6.6%. These are very high forecasts, among the top in the world.
Third, through economic forums, experts pointed out favorable factors for Vietnam's economy to grow strongly in 2025. That is, the Government is actively perfecting and synchronizing policies and business environment, anticipating the shift in global supply chains. This could also be an opportunity to expand the market, participate more deeply in the global supply chain and attract investment when Vietnam actively participates in free trade agreements (FTAs).
Not to mention, Vietnam's investment in infrastructure and high-tech industry; the digital transformation and technology process being strongly deployed in both the state apparatus and economic units... will create new momentum for development.
Fourth, public investment is being implemented strongly. 2025 is the final year of the 2021-2025 medium-term public investment plan, with a record level of VND 791,000 billion (equivalent to 6.4% of GDP) approved by the National Assembly. The Government has pointed out that the 2025 public investment plan will continue to have many innovations, focusing on prioritizing important and key sectors and fields of the economy, key transport projects with spillover effects, promoting socio-economic development, etc.
The government is determined to implement major programs and projects such as the North-South high-speed railway, nuclear power, expressways, etc., which are expected to have a profound positive impact on the economy. Enterprises in the fields of infrastructure, construction materials such as steel, cement, asphalt, logistics, civil real estate and industrial production activities are expected to benefit from public investment projects.
Fifth, the world economy is gradually stabilizing as global trade in goods improves, inflationary pressures gradually decrease, financial market conditions continue to loosen, and the labor market recovers. These factors will create positive conditions for global economic growth in 2025, which will have a positive impact on countries, including Vietnam - a country with a highly open economy and strong export resources.
Solve challenging problems
To achieve the above growth target, in addition to the series of solutions specified by the Government in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP, experts also pointed out the challenges that the Vietnamese economy must address in 2025.
According to Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet, Deputy Director of the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR), one of the bottlenecks of the economy is institutions. General Secretary To Lam once pointed out that institutional bottlenecks, especially the quality of institutions and laws, are huge barriers to development in general and economic growth in particular. Mr. Viet hopes that these barriers and bottlenecks will be quickly overcome so that businesses can be unstuck, creating momentum for the economy to develop strongly in 2025 and the following years.
In an interview with The World and Vietnam Newspaper, Dr. Santiago Velasquez, RMIT University Vietnam, said that FDI and export production are expected to be the foundation for Vietnam's economic growth in 2025. However, the dependence on trade makes Vietnam vulnerable to external risks.
Because the world is witnessing a “new trade war” after US President Donald Trump returned to the White House, it could lead to higher tariffs on re-exports, thereby affecting Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2025. Dr. Velasquez warned that Vietnam’s development trajectory depends on its ability to resolve domestic bottlenecks and respond to international trade risks.
To maintain growth momentum and move towards higher growth, Mr. Velasquez believes that Vietnam needs to adopt a “dual engine” model that balances export strength with a strong domestic market. This approach not only stabilizes growth but also enhances the comprehensiveness of the economy. Because the domestic market, with its increasing consumption and expanding middle class, remains an important driver of growth.
To do so, according to Mr. Nguyen Quoc Viet, both businesses and the Government play a key role. Businesses need to accelerate digital transformation, improve supply chains, and implement targeted discount programs to stimulate demand and expand new markets. The Government prioritizes tax reductions, such as cuts in consumption tax and income tax, to increase people's purchasing power.
In the context of the economy's weak capital absorption capacity, especially for domestic enterprises, to promote growth, it is necessary to continue to focus on stimulating investment, especially private investment, to ensure that total social investment reaches a high level and expand money supply reasonably.
Another challenge that many economic experts recommend is that Vietnam needs to have more policies to attract high-quality FDI into new industries. FDI invested in the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector, in the direction of applying high technology to increase quality, and developing organic agriculture should be prioritized.
According to Dr. Ha Huy Ngoc, Vietnam Economic Institute, the Government needs to proactively develop GDP growth scenarios at different levels for 2025 and the 2026-2030 period. The growth scenario needs to specify how much each industry and field must increase and clearly identify the potential, driving force, and specific resources to prepare and exploit resources for development. Along with that, it is necessary to proactively and flexibly implement fiscal and monetary policies with focus, key points, synchronously, harmoniously, and closely coordinate with other policies; credit and interest rate policies are appropriate, in harmony with demand, ensuring the interests of related entities in the economy. Only then can the national GDP growth target in 2025 reach the expectation of double digits, creating momentum for the next stage.
Experts say that GDP growth is certain to pick up by 2025, but the specific trajectory will depend on Vietnam’s ability to respond to global trade risks and adjust domestic policies. With proactive reforms, Vietnam can ensure sustainable prosperity.
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Source: https://baoquocte.vn/kinh-te-viet-nam-2025-vung-buoc-tang-truong-303524.html
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