Pyongyang is looking for a way out of the impasse on the Korean Peninsula through closer cooperation with Russia. Although the US, South Korea and Russia all have important elections in 2024, the situation on the peninsula will change little and the momentum of Russia-North Korea relations will likely continue.
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| Russian President Putin (right) and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meet at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia's Far East on September 13, 2023. (Source: KCNA) |
On March 28, Russia vetoed a draft resolution of the United Nations Security Council to extend the mandate of a panel of independent experts (PoE) tasked with monitoring the implementation of UN sanctions against North Korea.
The resolution was supported by 13 members of the Security Council (including South Korea and Japan), with one abstention from China. With Russia, a permanent member, voting against the resolution, the PoE will cease its operations at the end of April 2024. This development not only shows the increasingly close cooperation between Russia and North Korea, but also represents a major change in North Korea's strategy.
US-North Korea dialogue breaks down
North Korea is currently facing a dilemma. The current South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is actively promoting trilateral cooperation between the US, Japan and South Korea. As North Korea shows more determination in developing nuclear programs, testing missiles, firing artillery shells, launching satellites, etc., the US and South Korea continue to impose a number of sanctions to block Pyongyang's financial resources, exacerbating the country's economic problems.
To solve this conundrum, the ideal option for North Korea would be to reach a denuclearization agreement with the United States that would ease or even lift sanctions. Leader Kim Jong Un has been persistent in pursuing this direction, as evidenced by the 27 letters he exchanged with former US President Donald Trump in 2018-2019. The administration of former South Korean President Moon Jae In also made efforts to facilitate US-North Korea denuclearization negotiations.
However, after the US-North Korea Summit in Hanoi ended without a joint statement, the negotiation process has been at a standstill until now. With successive administrations in the US and South Korea prioritizing strengthening the alliance between the two countries instead of trying to make a breakthrough in denuclearization negotiations with North Korea, the possibility for North Korea to continue pursuing the above option is gradually narrowing.
Russia-North Korea cooperation “revived”
In this situation, North Korea has simultaneously sought opportunities for closer cooperation with both Russia and China. When North Korea closed its borders due to the Covid-19 pandemic, two senior Russian and Chinese officials attended the North Korean military parade in Kim Il-sung Square in July 2023, showing that intention. However, China has not yet deeply engaged in the North Korean issue, mainly calling on the parties concerned to exercise restraint and resume dialogue because China still needs to focus on solving domestic economic problems and wants to avoid promoting closer US-Japan-ROK cooperation.
On the Russian side, after two years of war in Ukraine, both Russia and Ukraine are running out of artillery shells. While Ukraine has military aid from Western countries, Russia has few options from its partners due to various sanctions. Meanwhile, North Korea is in need of food, fuel, and advanced military technology such as spy satellites and nuclear submarines; and Russia has the ability and experience to support North Korea in these matters. In September 2023, the two leaders of Russia and North Korea held a summit in Russia, a sign of the "revival" in cooperation between the two countries since the Cold War. Although neither Russia nor North Korea disclosed the agreements reached at the September 2023 summit, the veto of the PoE extension at the Security Council showed the division among the member states on the North Korean issue, as well as the increasingly close coordination of Russia-North Korea relations.
Keep Connecting
In March 2024, the head of Russia's foreign intelligence agency, Sergei Naryshkin, visited Pyongyang to discuss counter-espionage cooperation. In the near future, although no specific date has been set, the Kremlin said that President Putin will visit North Korea in 2024, with many "very good" cooperation agreements between the two sides being signed. If it goes as planned, this will be Putin's first visit to North Korea in nearly 23 years.
After the US-North Korea Summit in Hanoi, North Korea understands that negotiating with the US to ease sanctions is no longer a viable option. Therefore, Russia is currently still Pyongyang's "ray of hope" to find a new strategic direction on the Korean Peninsula. The "spring" in Russia-North Korea relations may continue to develop until there are new breakthroughs in the war situation in Ukraine and the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
Notably, South Korea held a new National Assembly election on April 10, with the early voting rate on April 5-6 reaching a record high in history (31.28%). Early on the morning of April 11, the results of nearly all votes showed that the main opposition party DPK won 161/254 seats elected in a direct election, and is expected to win 176/300 seats in the National Assembly along with other satellite parties. With this result, the DPK will continue to control the majority of seats in the Korean National Assembly as in the previous term. Thus, like the past two years, President Yoon's efforts to implement domestic policies will continue to face difficulties. However, in essence, the influence of the Korean National Assembly on the foreign policy of the current President's administration is relatively low, so Mr. Yoon's policy direction is likely to be maintained until the end of his presidential term in May 2027.
On the US side, although the presidential election is scheduled to take place in November 2024, US President Joe Biden will be in power until January 2025. On the Russian side, President Putin was also re-elected in the March 15-17 election and will continue to hold power until 2030. In addition, observers also assess that the prospect of reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in 2024 is still dim, and the war is expected to continue. Considering these factors, it can be predicted that Russia-North Korea cooperation is likely to continue to develop.
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