The proliferation of killer UAVs on the front lines has caused the war in Ukraine to stagnate, as soldiers on both sides find themselves in a "easy to defend, hard to attack" situation.
The Russian military has recently mobilized tens of thousands of troops to attack Kupyansk, a strategic transport city that connects the rail and road networks in northeastern Ukraine. Russia captured the city early in the war but was forced to withdraw from Kupyansk during a lightning Ukrainian counteroffensive in September 2022.
Fighting here is fierce, as Russian forces launch raids every few days to penetrate enemy lines.
"The situation here is very bad," said Gleb Molchanov, a member of the Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) unit at the Kupyansk front in Kharkiv province.
The Russian military has achieved some tactical successes, pushing Ukrainian forces out of several villages and forests, but has not been able to capture Kupyansk. Molchanov shared a video he shot on January 4, showing about 10 Russian tanks and armored vehicles exploding after being attacked by Ukrainian UAVs near the village of Sinkovka, about 6 km northeast of the city of Kupyansk.
Russian armored vehicles attacked near Kupyansk, Kharkov on January 4. Video: Guardian
According to Molchanov, Russian forces will find it difficult to achieve a major breakthrough in Kupyansk and other fronts due to the threat of UAVs, a type of weapon that is cheap but can cause high damage. Ukraine has previously abandoned the counter-offensive campaign and switched to an "active defense" strategy, so the war in Ukraine in the coming time will likely continue to maintain its current "frozen" state.
"Neither side knew what to do to be able to attack. Everything that was attacked was destroyed by UAVs or artillery shells," Molchanov said.
UAVs, especially the first-person view (FPV) variety, are now one of the main weapons on the Ukrainian battlefield. FPV UAVs are controlled remotely by a controller and a head-mounted device, giving the user a realistic view as if sitting in the cockpit. Their operating range is about 15 km, depending on the payload.
The biggest advantage of this type of equipment is quantity, because they are cheap, easy to produce, and can be assembled right on the battlefield. Molchanov said his team can easily buy FPV UAVs from online sales platforms, for about $400 each.
Ukrainian UAV pilot Gleb Molchanov in a photo posted on January 25. Photo: Guardian
Despite its low cost, FPV UAVs can perform a variety of roles, such as tracking enemy movements, directing artillery fire, or using them as suicide weapons to attack infantry and heavy equipment that cost thousands of times more. They can also be used to drop explosives, but this method is less widely used.
"The emergence of UAVs has made NATO's traditional warfare doctrine obsolete," Molchanov said.
According to NATO tactics, attacks are conducted in the form of combined arms operations, utilizing the mobility and firepower of modern tanks and armored vehicles to penetrate enemy defenses, thereby developing deeper attacks.
This tactic was used by the Ukrainian army in the early stages of the counter-offensive campaign, but failed due to encountering Russia's heavily mined and fortified defense lines, forcing Kiev to switch to traditional fighting, organizing small battles to limit casualties.
Ukrainian forces in action in this photo posted on January 25. Photo: Ukrainian Army
The emergence of FPV UAVs, a weapon considered the "nemesis of tanks" because it can take them down with just one suicide attack on the most vulnerable positions, has further overshadowed the role of heavy combat vehicles in Ukraine.
The fact that vehicles that act as shock troops and support infantry become more "vulnerable" to the destructive power of UAVs puts both sides in a "easy to defend, hard to attack" situation, according to Molchanov. "This is a battle between armor and bullets. Bullets are currently the winning side," he said.
Molchanov believes that Russia will not be able to penetrate the defense line in Kupyansk until it finds a solution to deal with FPV UAVs.
“We are at a technological stalemate,” he said. “I don’t think they will take Kupyansk. Neither side can win unless they find new tactics or make technological advances.”
A Ukrainian FPV UAV model. Photo: Guardian
Cold winter weather can also limit the performance of FPV UAVs, as low temperatures cause their batteries to drain more quickly. Ukraine is believed to be more affected by this phenomenon, as Kiev relies more on low-cost battery-powered UAVs than its opponents.
Location of Kupyansk and surrounding areas. Graphics: RYV
Pham Giang (According to Guardian, Ukrainska Pravda, RIA Novosti )
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