Moscow has lifted the “anti-terrorist regime” that was activated on June 24, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on Telegram on June 26. The Moscow and Voronezh regions also removed special security measures that were activated after the mutiny began.
Peace returned to Rostov-on-Don on June 25 after members of the Wagner private military group withdrew from the city.
Earlier, the Kremlin announced on June 25 that Wagner tycoon Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led the Wagner group to Moscow, would travel to Belarus in exchange for immunity from the criminal case opened by the Federal Security Service (FSB). Wagner fighters who participated in the mutiny will also not be prosecuted.
However, the weekend’s events did not end quite so simply. Russian President Vladimir Putin has not appeared in public since addressing the nation on the morning of June 24 about Wagner’s actions, but a pre-recorded interview earlier in the week was broadcast on Russian state television on June 25.
Prigozhin was last seen on the evening of June 24, leaving the city of Rostov-on-Don in a heavily guarded black SUV. Since then, Wagner has remained silent, posting no messages on social media.
Russia restores normal operations
Russia began its efforts to restore calm on the morning of June 26, with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu – one of the main targets of Mr Prigozhin’s anger – visiting Russian troops involved in the operation in Ukraine.
Footage broadcast by Russian state television showed Mr Shoigu being briefed on the military situation, studying maps and taking a helicopter to check troop positions.
Significantly, however, Mr Putin has not been seen in public since his June 24 address to the nation, in which the Russian leader condemned Wagner's actions as an armed mutiny and treason.
The West appeared confused, but was quick to assess the situation. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stressed on June 25 that Wagner’s actions had exposed “many cracks in Russia’s facade”.
“It’s too early to say exactly where they’re going and when they’re going to get there… but certainly we have all sorts of new questions that Mr. Putin will have to address in the weeks and months ahead,” Mr. Blinken said.
Wagner Group CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin poses for a smiling selfie before leaving the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on the evening of June 24, 2023. Photo: NY Post
There were media reports that US intelligence had known for several days that Mr Prigozhin was plotting armed action against Russian defence officials, with the Washington Post quoting an official as saying they knew “something was up”.
Figures in Washington, DC are said to have grown concerned that Mr Putin could lose control of his nuclear arsenal if the coup succeeded.
The Russian Defense Ministry said Ukraine had taken advantage of the chaos caused by Mr Prigozhin to step up attacks around Bakhmut in the Donetsk region.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has made no secret of its hope that the threat of civil war in Russia will linger in its favor, even contemplating a scenario where Moscow will be forced to redeploy its frontline reserves to deal with the domestic crisis.
“Any chaos behind enemy lines is beneficial to us,” said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
What happened to Wagner soldiers?
The Wagner Group – officially known as Wagner PMC – has been credited with key victories in Ukraine, including the capture of the city of Bakhmut after a long and bloody battle.
Their absence from the battlefield was brief and probably not enough to win Ukraine over, but it certainly boosted Kiev's military morale.
The power of the Wagner group was demonstrated in 24 hours, during which they captured two cities, including Rostov-on-Don, the headquarters of the Southern Military District, shot down at least three helicopters and marched 800 km, coming within 200 km of the capital Moscow.
Wagner soldiers withdraw from the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, evening of June 24, 2023. Photo: NY Times
“I honestly think Wagner has probably done more damage to Russian aerospace forces in the last day than the Ukrainian offensive has done in the last three weeks,” said Michael Kofman, director of the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA).
Given their potential, it is unlikely that Moscow will take retaliatory action (at least publicly) against the Wagner fighters who marched with Mr. Prigozhin, who was offered amnesty by the Russian Defense Ministry on June 24.
Those who do not support Mr. Prigozhin will be given contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry, putting them under the control of the people Mr. Wagner is trying to overthrow, according to the AP news agency.
There is speculation that the uprising was prompted by a demand that private military companies such as Wagner sign contracts with the Russian government by July 1. Mr Putin has said he supports this demand.
What happened to Mr. Prigozhin?
Mr Prigozhin was last seen on the evening of 24 June in a car leaving Rostov-on-Don to the cheers of some locals, with some running to shake hands and take pictures with the Wagner leader. However, Mr Prigozhin's current whereabouts remain a big question mark.
Barricades on the road to Red Square in Moscow, Russia, June 25, 2023. Photo: Shutterstock
The head of the Wagner group accepted the deal because he wanted to “avoid bloodshed” and is believed to be going into exile in Belarus – a close ally of Mr Putin under the rule of President Alexander Lukashenko.
And that raises more questions than it answers. There are theories that Mr Prigozhin will not even go to Belarus, but may choose to stay in Ukraine or even flee to Africa, where the Wagner group has several contracts.
“Going to Belarus could be an option – he seems to know and trust Lukashenko… but he would still be in danger there… I think he would continue to operate in Ukraine, rather than Belarus, where he could still enjoy freedom with his loyalists,” Michael Horowitz, a geopolitical and security analyst, told NBC News (USA) .
Minh Duc (According to Hindustan Times, Stuff)
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