2023 could be the hottest year on record

Due to the impact of the El Nino phenomenon combined with climate change caused by human activities, 2023 could break the hottest record of 2016.

Soaring temperatures in the world's oceans and the emergence of El Nino weather conditions in the Pacific mean 2023 could be the hottest year on record, with researchers saying the planet is approaching unprecedented temperatures, according to New Scientist .

The previous hottest year on record was 2016, when the world experienced the most recent El Niño. Now, the June temperature record suggests 2023 is on track to approach 2016. The first 11 days of June recorded the highest global temperatures for the first time, according to Copernicus, the European Union’s Earth observation program, following the second-warmest May and fourth-warmest April on record. The peak occurred on June 9, when the global average air temperature was 16.7 degrees Celsius (61.6 degrees Fahrenheit), just 0.1 degrees Celsius (0.1 degrees Fahrenheit) below the previous record set on August 13, 2016.

While human-caused climate change continues to raise global temperatures, there is no evidence of an acceleration this year. Instead, the warming conditions come after global temperatures rose 1.3 degrees Celsius, pushing records higher.

One of the main factors driving the recent unusually high temperatures is warming in and above the ocean. Scientists have been warning for months about record-high sea surface temperatures, the result of heat waves around the world. In the North Atlantic on June 11, temperatures hit 22.7 degrees Celsius (72.4 degrees Fahrenheit), 0.5 degrees higher than the record set in June 2010. Researchers are not sure why the ocean is so warm, especially since El Nino is just emerging and will peak later this year.

Weakening trade winds due to changes in atmospheric dynamics is the most likely explanation, according to Copernicus scientist Samantha Burgess. In the North Atlantic, reduced winds have reduced the amount of dust blowing across that part of the ocean from the Sahara. Dust typically has a cooling effect on the ocean.

The surge in ocean and atmospheric temperatures is a surprise for this time of year, Burgess said. Globally, the first few days of June exceeded the 1.5-degree Celsius temperature threshold above pre-industrial levels. Previously, that had only happened during the Northern Hemisphere winter, when wild temperature swings were more common.

"What we've seen so far suggests that 2023 is likely to be among the top five warmest years on record. Ocean temperatures have never been this warm in human history and air temperatures are on track to break records," Burgess said.

While El Nino conditions combined with climate change are similar to 2016, this year’s heat wave has played out very differently. While 2016’s temperature spikes were concentrated in Siberia in the Arctic, 2023 has seen records set in multiple locations, including the Southern Ocean and Antarctica, since the start of the year.

Scientists have become increasingly concerned about the lack of sea ice in Antarctica in recent months, with February 2023 marking a new all-time low of 1.79 million square kilometers. Sea ice is now re-forming as the continent heads into winter, but remains well below average.

As El Nino strengthens over the next few months, researchers predict more unusual temperatures will occur as its effects begin to impact weather patterns around the world.

An Khang (According to New Scientist )

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